TIME Poll: Obama Leads by 5 in Ohio

Buoyed by early voting in his favor, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the pivotal state of Ohio, according to a new TIME poll.

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BROOKS KRAFT / CORBIS FOR TIME

President Barack Obama, joined by Vice President Joe Biden, speaks during a campaign event at Triangle Park in Dayton, Ohio, on Oct. 23, 2012.

Columbus, Ohio

Buoyed by early voting in his favor, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the pivotal state of Ohio, according to a new TIME poll.

Counting both Ohioans who say they will head to the polls on November 6, and those who have already cast a ballot, Obama holds a 49% to 44% lead over Romney in a survey taken Monday and Tuesday night.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The poll makes clear that there are really two races underway in Ohio. On one hand, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted but who say they intend to, with 45% of respondents supporting the President and 45% preferring his Republican challenger.

(INTERACTIVE: 2012 Electoral College Calculator Map)

But Obama has clearly received a boost from Ohio’s early voting period, which began on Oct. 2 and runs through November 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.

When those two groups are combined, the TIME poll reveals, Obama leads by five points overall in Ohio.

“At least for the early vote, the Obama ground game seems to be working,” says Mark Schulman, president of Abt SRBI, which conducted the poll.

Nearly one third of all Ohioans voted early in 2008.

The survey also suggests Obama is riding a wave of optimism in Ohio, where voters appear to separate their worries about the direction of the nation from how they regard the landscape in the Buckeye State. While 54% of Ohio voters believe the country is on the wrong track (and 41% believe the nation is heading in the right direction), 51% of Ohio voters believe their state is on the right track (while 43% disagree).

(MORE: What Happened at the Last Presidential Debate)

The TIME survey shows the gender gap is working in Obama’s favor: the President is winning 56% of the women’s vote in Ohio, while Romney is winning only 37% of women. By comparison, 51% of Ohio men back Romney while 42% of men prefer Obama.

While Romney is winning 49% of white voters, Obama is still attracting the support of 43% of that demographic group, a level well above what polls say he is winning in some other states. Obama is running strongest among voters under 40; Romney fares best among voters 65 and older. Romney is ahead of Obama among Ohio independents, winning 53% to Obama’s 38%.

Ohioans give Romney a four point edge in handling the economy, 50% to 46%, but Obama enjoys a 49% to 44% margin on foreign policy. Respondents sided with Obama, 50% to 44%, on the question of which candidate would better represent the interests of the middle class.

Both campaigns have camped out extensively in Ohio, a bellwether state crucial to the Electoral College map. Ohio has sided with the winner in 27 of the past 29 presidential election cycles.

The poll, conducted for TIME by Abt SRBI, surveyed 783 likely Ohio voters on Oct. 22 and Oct. 23. Full results are available here.

PHOTOS: Political Pictures of the Week, Oct. 12-18

675 comments
MissClarity
MissClarity

JohnDecker etal. I hear tell God wins this one.  So what's a girl to do?  I'll stand with God.  OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

Butcus
Butcus

Look at the poll internals! Question 9. That's the real basis for the poll. Question 9 asked " if the election was held today whom would you vote for Obama or  Romney? The answer in Ohio was 45/45 with a 5% oversampling of Democrats over Republicans !!! The polls put out by liberal organizations like "Time" have almost always oversampled Democrats by 5 to 11% over Republicans. That is not the way American's are going to show up at the polls in this election. Actually Gallup has a Republican advantage of 1%.

wilsonjames140
wilsonjames140

D+10?  This poll isn't worth using as toilet paper and Time knows it.  After the damage the communist has done to this country there isn't a chance in Hades that dem gubmit dependent slugs outvote Republicans by 10 points.  If Time's editors had a shred of conscience they would be ashamed.

BrendaBechlerAvery
BrendaBechlerAvery

The laws of EEOC and equal rights will be held in every state of the union. Rumors that Mitt Romney will overturn these laws is ignorant and naive. Women will have abortions whether Roe vs. Wade gets overturned which I doubt it will. Women today are holding some of the highest paid jobs in business and government. Our country cannot afford Obamacare and 17 trillion dollars of debt.

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

Why would anyone want to bring back the toxic polices of 2000-2008 and add in cutting women's rights just for extra flavor?

BillPearlman
BillPearlman

Time magazine isn't exactly an unbiased source. It's an Obama mouthpiece

lonestarlizard
lonestarlizard

I did not see the D+10 but I finally found what I think is a D+9 skew to this worthless poll. Amazing how good Oblamer's position appears when one samples with D+9 or D+10 isn't it?

FlyButanol
FlyButanol

A D+10 poll? When 2008 was D+7? When you ask more D, you get more D responses. 

So, why is this poll not weighted to correct for this obvious bias, like other polls are?

chadlerch
chadlerch

I wonder what percentage of the early voters in Ohio are dead, illegals, or otherwise fraudulent acts of desperate Democrats?

MissClarity
MissClarity

Romney/Ryan legalize rape.  The little girl will be prosecuted if she doesn't get a condom on her rapist.

D._Landers
D._Landers

It is the "Electoral Votes" that will determine the winner of this race.  The "popular" votes are not as relevant here.  Obama still continues to hold a lead in the "Electoral Votes."  In fact, Obama's lead here has been consistent throughout this entire process.

But to add to all of this,  Richard Mourdock's horrific "rape" comments have now sealed Romney's fate. Hence, it is not surprising that Nate Silver's "FiveThirtyEight Forecast" is still showing a victory for Obama:  Obama: 294 ...  vs Romney 244.  It is the crucial swing states that continue to push Obama ahead.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

ahandout
ahandout

Obama cannot win Ohio.  He is losing the independents.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331593/why-romney-doesnt-need-poll-lead-ohio-josh-jordan

 Romney’s strength with independents keeps growing: Last week when Obama led the Real Clear Politicsaverage by 2.5 points, Romney led among independents by an average of8.7 points. Romney has since increased that lead with independents to12.3 points, which is why he’s been able to cut Obama’s overall leadeven as the polls have leaned more Democratic. In 2008 Obama beat McCainwith independents by eight points. It would be almost impossible forObama to win Ohio while suffering a 20-point swing among independents.

AdamSmith
AdamSmith

@aboutbebout  

"Somebody wants Obama president.  My gut is telling me propaganda."

Your gut issue is probably due to your poor diet. Eat some yogurt.

Waving the flag and threatening in advance responses with the label "cowardice" only wins arguments with the low information crowd (which you represent).

 "You don't know what Romney will do.  You think you do."

This is an endorsement? Vote for Romney, the "Box of Chocolates" candidate, you never know what you're going to get?

I'll bet you voted for Bush in 2004, who failed to pay attention to the "bin LAden determined to strike in America" PDB of Aug 6, 2001. Did that register as a  "president who ignored warnings?" What about the fact that PDB was kept secret for 8 months?

Did you vote for Bush in 2004, despite the fact there were 7 embassy attacks during the Bush presidency, and 60 people died?

The facts are:

1) It takes time for all the facts to come out. This was true for 9/11/2001, it was true for the Kennedy assassination, it's always been true, even for events that occurred on our shores, much less in a foreign country where we have limited access and intelligence resources.

2) It was a mistake to say anything as early as the Obama administration did, but they correctly determined there would be shrieks of "coverup" and as a result issued statements prematurely.

3) These kinds of decisions don't rise to the President's desk. They would have been decided by some mid level bureaucrat at the State DEpartment.

4) It is obscene to try to politicize this. Romney was called out for doing this before we even knew Ambassador Stevens was dead, but the Republicans have not been able to put country first for a very long time.

So go ahead and call me a coward. Coming from a low information poster like yourself, that really hurts.

JohnDecker
JohnDecker

@aboutbebout "Cowardice" to avoid a man who has no pervasive convictions, who will tell each audience whatever he thinks that group wants to hear? Cowardice to avoid a man who starts his campaign with one blatant line (that still to this day sits on his website), the one where Obama was quoting McCain and the Romney people cut it so it would look like Obama's opinion, remember that one? And cowardice to avoid a man who ends his campaign with another blatant lie about Jeep sending its production line to China, a lie so complete and unabashed that Chrysler itself felt compelled to repudiate it (in addition to every fact-checker alive), at which point, rather than apologizing (or at least clarifying), Romney instead buys hundreds of hours of radio time to spread the same thoroughly discredited and debunked lie? Cowardice to avoid a man like that? I don't think so.

AdamSmith
AdamSmith

@mantisdragon91  

You'd think someone with a "business" background would know better than to suggest the states create 50 min-FEMAs. How can that possibly be more efficient? This is one place where "outsourcing" (from the states to the Federal Government) makes perfect sense. It didn't take Washington long to figure out individual state militias where not going to cut it.

Disasters rotate among the states, it's not as though major disasters are anything that occurs with any regularity. It's absurd for 50 states to keep forces on readiness.

AaronCohn
AaronCohn

@Butcus R+1 for just republicans.  If you include leaners on both sides, it's R+3.

JohnDecker
JohnDecker

@Butcus In 2008 Gallup put Obama 11 points ahead of McCain on election eve. Other polls had Obama closer to 7 points. The other polls were right. In August 2000, Gallup had GWB 16 points ahead of Gore, then in September, it put Gore up by 10, then in October, it had GWB back up by 13. In 1996, Gallup had Clinton up by 25 points over Dole, then a few days later had the lead at 4. No other pollster has this kind of bipolar disease. Just saying  . . .

aboutbebout
aboutbebout

@wilsonjames140  When you have obsessed hatchet men like David Alexrod working for you anything's possible.  We can't vote Obama out -- we have to drive him out.  Masses must vote.

AaronCohn
AaronCohn

@wilsonjames140 No.  It WAS D+10 in 2008 & Obama won by 7%.  Time is saying there's been a 13 point shift in the electorate, so it's now R+3.

And it was a very good poll with a very large sample size.  Margin of error is 1% on that poll.

If Obama losing independents by double digit margins & the electorate will now show more republicans/leaners showing to vote than democrats/leaners, Obama is cooked.  That's the bottom line.

You can throw your state polls skewed to the 2008 election in the toilet.  This won't even be close.

JohnDecker
JohnDecker

@wilsonjames140 Just curious here, wilsonjames. How can you define a President who's overseen a 58% increase in wealth of the top 1% wage earners in the US as "communist"? Isn't it a drag when you have no clue what you're talking about?

aboutbebout
aboutbebout

@BrendaBechlerAvery    Thank you for being bold and practical.  So many will cling to the past, but why would we cling to this past?  Nice man, but has to go.

AaronCohn
AaronCohn

@mantisdragon91 Why would anyone want to extend the policies of the last 4 for another 4?  The man has added more debt in 4 years than bush did in 8.  He watched the videofeed as 4 americans were gunned down & refused requests to go help them.  Then he lied to the american public for 2 weeks concerning what started it all.

Were you born this way or dropped on your head shortly after birth?

RyanScottG
RyanScottG

@edmorris Dems were saying the same in 2004 when polls "skewed" Republican.  Everyone on here who is crying foul about "oversampling" is very confused about how polls are conducted.

lonestarlizard
lonestarlizard

@FlyButanol Because then it would look as if Mitt is running ahead. Can't have that nonsense in a poll sanctioned by Time, the most fair and balanced mag in the bag for the Kool-Aid King.

FlyButanol
FlyButanol

@D._Landers It has been consistent with polls like this, which is D+10. If you weight it to something more reasonable (2008 was D+7, 2010 was R+3), say, D+3, Romney is in the lead in Ohio according to this poll. Even if you exaggerate D turnout to D+5 (as Rasmussen does), you get a tie-- like Rasmussen.

Regarding Mourdock, most people understand what he was trying to say. Few people don't already know that some pro-lifers believe all life is sacred, and that abortion is killing a child who is completely innocent. Rather than argue whether that is a reasonable belief, you have to use hyperbole and smears, hoping the stink will rub off on all Republicans. Unfortunately, you have your hands in it up to your elbows and it doesn't wash off.

summering01
summering01

@D._Landers Mourdock's comment should not seal Romney's fate since he's not the one who made it.  Romney has, in fact, condemned it.

tcarlson
tcarlson

And on the other side of the coin . . . Republicans feel the cover up and rampant lies about the terrorist deaths in Benghazi have sealed Obama's fate.

AdamSmith
AdamSmith

@ahandout  

The National Review - now there's an unbiased source.

 Here's a news flash - Obama can win without Ohio, but Romney can't

If you think Obama cannot win Ohio, mortgage your house, and bet it all on Romney to win in Ohio. At intrade.com at this moment, a $3.50 bet on Romney will pay $10.00 when Romney wins.

Easy money! You run right over there and take those patsies for everything they're worth.

AdamSmith
AdamSmith

@AaronCohn @wilsonjames140  

You can make a fortune putting your money where your mouth is. I suggest you mortgage your house, and head over to intrade.com when a $3.70 bet on Romney pays $10.00 when Romney wins in the landslide you predict.

Actually, that's the payoff if Romney wins even on a squeaker. If you want to be Romney landslide, you can get much better odds.

JohnDecker
JohnDecker

@AaronCohn @wilsonjames140 What does "won't even be close" mean? Because I'd love to set some parameters for a wager about how this election will turn out. Say, $100? Since you claim  it won't be close, you can give me points.

JohnDecker
JohnDecker

@AaronCohn @mantisdragon91 You're actually claiming that Obama watched as the four Americans were killed in Libya? Oh Lord, that's perhaps the sickest ugliest lie I've yet heard in a month filled with sick Romney lies. You should be ashamed of yourself for even writing something that perverse. You clearly don't have the self-respect God gave to a garden slug. Really horrifically reprehensible LIE. You are subhuman.. 

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@AaronCohn @mantisdragon91 So many lies condensed in one small post. There was no live video feed from Benghazi and the were no requests turned down. More importantly in 4 year we have come a long way back from the cliff of 2008. Why would we want to go back?

JohnDecker
JohnDecker

@FlyButanol @D._Landers "Few people don't already know that pro-lifers believe that all life is sacred" -- tell me, Fly, in that context, how did you feel during last September's Republican primary debate when moderator Brian Williams asked Gov. Rick Perry about the 234 men Texas had executed during his term (more than double the next two states' total combined), and the GOP audience cheered wildly? "Life is sacred," my fat white butt.

AdamSmith
AdamSmith

@summering01 @D._Landers  

Yes, Romney condemns it. By continuing to support Mourdock, one of only 2 Senate races where Romney has given a personal endorsement.

But that's Romney for you, on both sides of every issue, something for everybody. This lets the low information voter pick the Romney version he prefers on any specific issue.

RyanScottG
RyanScottG

@tcarlson The fact is that neither the "rape" comment nor the "cover up" are having much of an effect on this election.

JohnDecker
JohnDecker

@aboutbebout @AdamSmith You've never voted Republican before, but you, a so-called high-information voter, will pull that lever for Romney. Of all the GOP candidates in your lifetime, Romney is the one that prompts you to cross party lines. That is so sad I can't even find the words.

AdamSmith
AdamSmith

@aboutbebout @AdamSmith @mantisdragon91  

Amazing.

You are "responding" to my post, without a single mention of what I actually wrote.

Do you understand how a message board (or any dialog) works?

Actually, I am afraid of Romney (see that? I responded to something you wrote - that's the way dialog works). Unlike you, not knowing what he'll do is not something I consider a plus. His appeal is solely to the low information crowd, which explains why you are his advocate.

JohnDecker
JohnDecker

@aboutbebout How is your empty silhouette more interesting, revealing or substantive than my tribute to Bogart? Is your silhouette voting?