Memo to Romney: Forget Ohio, Florida is Everything

  • Share
  • Read Later
Brian Snyder / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney pauses while speaking at a campaign stop at American Spring Wire in Bedford Heights, Ohio Sept. 26, 2012.

There’s been ample talk this month about how Mitt Romney might “shake up” or “turn around” his campaign. A lot of it involves things like bringing in new strategists, tweaking the campaign’s message or maybe “unleashing” Paul Ryan. Maybe those things would work, but I’m skeptical.

A more promising approach might be a shift in Romney’s electoral-map strategy. Romney is currently spending a lot of time and money in Ohio. As a fresh-back from the Buckeye state Adam Sorensen noted earlier, Ohio is looking awfully tough for the GOP nominee. But Romney can beat Obama without carrying Ohio. What he cannot do, realistically, is beat Obama without carrying Ohio or Florida.

While the press always seems more interested in Ohio, Florida is the more important of the two–and the more winnable. Important because Florida has eleven more electoral votes than does Ohio (29 to 18). That means Romney could beat Obama with a Florida win and an Ohio loss, even without carrying Paul Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin, which is looking doable but not likely. Granted, Romney would have to virtually run the table in all the other swing states, though he could afford to lose one or even two small one like New Mexico, Nevada or New Hampshire. Play with the electoral map yourself here. (This scenario, by the way, is a plausible path towards a 269-269 electoral college tie; that would throw the election into the House of Representatives, most likely producing a President Romney.)

Florida is more winnable for a couple of reasons. One, the polls have consistently been tighter there than in Ohio. That’s in keeping with 2008’s results, in which Obama won Florida by less than 3 points while carrying Ohio by nearly 5 points. Romney also has some high-caliber surrogates in Florida, including Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush; Ohio’s GOP leadership, including an only semi-popular Governor John Kasich, doesn’t have the same juice.

Florida no doubt presents big problems for Romney, including its substantial black and student populations. There’s also the small matter of Medicare, an issue of paramount importance to the senior citizens who are Romney’s most solid backers. This week’s Washington Post poll showed Obama with a 15-point advantage on Medicare among Florida voters.

(PHOTOS: Political Pictures of the Week, Sept. 20-27)

But I’m not saying Florida will be easy for Romney. I’m saying it’s easier than Ohio, and more important. If Romney wants to “shake up” his campaign, he and Paul Ryan should spend no more than a token amount of time and money in the Buckeye State, which requires a lot of both to win, and pour everything they can into Florida.

232 comments

This comment has been deleted

mattsarad
mattsarad like.author.displayName 1 Like

Disagree entirely... Romney basically needs Florida and Ohio to go his direction. He knows this. So he has to bring Ohio 5 points in the other direction in order to become President. This means his money and time has to go into Ohio and he has to HOPE that he can bring Florida along. If Romney loses Ohio he loses.

dblackwell39
dblackwell39 like.author.displayName 1 Like

If romney doesn't take Ohio- He's going to need such an astronomical win in at least 4 other states to make it up, that it's practically impossible. And I like them odds.

carolerae
carolerae like.author.displayName 1 Like

 Since the GOPFL has criminals running Voter Regis amp; they keep PURGING DEMS from the Rolls amp; the Gov most noted for LARGEST MEDICARE FRAUD in History; I would say Romney's chances are better at STEALING FL VOTES.  Also, Voter Suppression.  EVERY illegal trick in the book!  I'll be shocked if Obama were to Win it this time.

mattsarad
mattsarad like.author.displayName 1 Like

@carolerae FYI I voted for OBama but have been real disappointed with his understanding of the economy. Voting for Romney and hoping that he is serious about debt reduction and doesn't lead us into expensive and inhumane wars.

mattsarad
mattsarad like.author.displayName 1 Like

@carolerae The GOP doesn't need to steal votes, they just need to cancel the buses and withhold welfare checks for a week so that democrats can't afford to make it to the voter booths.

Leftcoastrocky
Leftcoastrocky like.author.displayName 1 Like

And so if Romney takes Florida, how does he get to 270 without Ohio (and WI, NH and PA are in the Obama column)

mattsarad
mattsarad

@Leftcoastrocky He has to have Ohio... He could theoretically win without it, but it would require winning in multiple states where he is behind in the polls. At least in Florida he's slightly ahead. He needs Florida and Ohio.

Angel Brooks
Angel Brooks

Romney easy win in Florida would be only because of the suppression laws happening in Florida...We must not forget, it was Florida with Al Gore...If we allow our elections to be fixed and not make a stand then we will continue to fall for everything...Romney seems to be a man with money running after something he wants for the hell of it...His message isn't clear because he's listening to, too many people at once. He doesn't have a clear view because his true values and allegiance have all been based around money. The times he speaks the clearest is when he's speaking of the health care program that he put in place...oh but he can't talk about that because it doesn't play to his base...Romney go back to the private sector because you are going to owe to many people in this life time for all they are doing to get you elected...AListens 

mattsarad
mattsarad like.author.displayName 1 Like

@Angel Brooks You do know that it's illegal to smoke crack right?

Chris
Chris

End Citizens' Untied NOW.

End Lobbying NOW.  Corporations are not People.

Return to the notion of citizen as defined in our Constitution - NOW.

All salaries and benefits of Congress and federal workers are to be marked and maintained at the national average -  NOW.

You are not allowed to work for any public or private institution you created legislation for or against while in Congress, for a time period of 4 years times the amount of time served in congress - and if that is a lifetime, too bad... get a real job in a sector you had nothing to do with..

Dan5404
Dan5404

Unleashing Ryan is a great idea.  He would further guarantee Romney's loss.  His power of persuasion was clearly deliniatined by the boos from the AARP seniors when he announced his first job would be to eliminate Obama Care.  He doesn't have the power to do that, and neither does Romney now that some of the plan is in effect successfully.   It is growing n popularity the more the Ramp;R team bash it.   Afther all, Romney created it in the first place,

melsouza
melsouza

Good luck with that advice--throwing Mr. Take Away Granny's Medicare Ryan at the senior citizens in Florida is really going to do it, eh Mike?  What grand advice! I sense that it's Ryan's selection in the first place that is sinking Robo in Florida--so you want to throw the poison more and more at the voters--you guys just don't give up trying to boost the Robo, do you?  It's over, pal.  Sorry.  The public has already caught on--they're not buying into you guys..

Partha Neogy
Partha Neogy

Rearranging the chairs on the deck of the Titanic wouldn't have helped.  Perhaps rearranging the band would have helped - but I am skeptical.

paulejb
paulejb

DonQuixotic,

"Fortunately none of those things are true.  Oh well."

=============================

The invincible ignorance of the dogmatic liberal.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

No, you're just posting opinion and conjecture Paul, especially that bit about "attacks on business".  What business?  All business?  Is Obama anti-money now too?

paulejb
paulejb

"Q2 GDP SLASHED TO 1.3%"

"Economists expected the number to be unchanged at 1.7 percent."

http://www.businessinsider.com...

As usual the grim news regarding the Obama economy was unexpected.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

Barack Obama, single handedly holding back the economy by doing....by...um...wait give me a minute I'll make the connection somehow.

mattsarad
mattsarad

@DonQuixotic The word you are looking for is "nothing" which is the activity fools undertake to fix problems. Obama is not a businessmen, does not understand business, and so his solutions to economic problems are wild ideas that would never be endorsed by a knowledge venture capital firm. VC firms make their money by understanding what works and what doesn't. The vast majority of people do not and will not ever understand how money is actually generated and so they make for very bad President's, like Barrack Obama.

ahandout
ahandout

Try it sometime.  Try reading the instructions that the government gives you to navigate its constantly changing tax laws.  Try keeping up with those changes and complying with the piles of gobbledegook that government spews out.  That is what is going to be the burden of businesses.  It's a waste of productivity, time, and money.

So businesses will have to hire someone to keep up with Obamacare, taking away a productive job that benefits the employer and the people that that company produces for, meaning me and you.

ahandout
ahandout

 DQ, have you done your own taxes, by hand, before turbo tax and other software came along?  I am assuming that you have had a job sometime in your life, but that may be giving you too much credit.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

No I use turbo tax.  Why, is that some kind of liberal conspiracy?

ahandout
ahandout

 Let me help you out there DQ...by being anti-business and imposing a burden on business with Obamacare. 

Work hard so I can confiscate your money and give to those that don't.  Spread the "wealth".  You know, the money you work for.  It's no mystery that people that work hard are saying FU Barry.

ChowT
ChowT

confiscate? how? from Cayman Islands?

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

Businesses with over 50 employees, which ceases to be "small business" and should provide that service to begin with. Similarly he's providing more business to insurance agencies - how is that anti-business?

paulejb
paulejb

DonQuixotic,

Stimulus that doesn't stimulate, Affordable Health Care that is neither affordable nor care, attacks on business, threats of confiscatory taxation, and the neo-Marxist denigration of success.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

Paulejb puts the treat on ahandout's nose and ahandout goes "Yip! Yip! Yip! Yip!"

ahandout
ahandout

"Fortunately none of those things are true.  Oh well."

Great rebuttal there genius.  I bet you popped some brain cells thinking of that one.

AfGuyReturns
AfGuyReturns

Looks like paulie cleaned out the bottom of his "Talking Points" file drawer....

All are old, thread-bare, and tattered... and there's a lot of lint mixed in.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

Fortunately none of those things are true.  Oh well.

paulejb
paulejb

"Obama Voter Says Vote for Obama because he gives a free Phone"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

Well, now we know the pollsters can reach this voter on her Obama phone.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic like.author.displayName 1 Like

The pollsters tabulate their data like American Idol, and all the Obama supporters are voting in again and again!

paulejb
paulejb

DonQuixotic,

Or they are weighted more heavily by the pollsters using a 2008 sample.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

Sure, that must be it.  I bet Fox does that too right?

MittsDeckShoes
MittsDeckShoes

I knew it! Those were all Obama operatives waiting in line for the

iPhone 5 last week so they could use the phones to buy votes! Soros is

at it again!

paulejb
paulejb

MittsDeckShoes,

Doubtful. Obama supporters would be sitting at home waiting for their free phone from Obama.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

People showing up to Obama's campaign events are a liberal fantasy MDS - they're not real!

MittsDeckShoes
MittsDeckShoes

Correct again! That's why no one is showing up to Obama's campaign events!

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

Little did you know Soros has a majority share in Apple!

MittsDeckShoes
MittsDeckShoes

 Yes, I know the polls are skewed. I know that Mitt Romney is really ahead by a gazillion percent in every poll, once you "unskew" the polls.

And, yes, I know the liberal media is at it again, conspiring to depress GOP turnout by concocting polls that put Obama ahead nationally and in swing states.

And, yes, I know that Obama's Justice Department and David Axelrod have put the squeeze on Gallup, and that's why the Gallup tracker has suddenly shot up to Obama +6.

And, yes, I know that somehow, Rupert Murdoch has joined the conspiracy, either because he is a traitor to the conservative cause, or, more likely, because he has been threatened by Eric Holder over the phone hacking scandal, and that's why the latest Fox News poll and the most recent Wall Street Journal poll both have Obama +5.

And, yes, I know that the conservative powerhouses on Fox News like Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, paid consultant Karl Rove, Brett Baier and the wholesome crew from "Fox and Friends" have been heroically calling out these biased and skewed polls, exposing them for the frauds they truly are. (And how wise of these heroes to avoid charging their own boss with participation in the conspiracy, knowing full well that Rupert Murdoch "has a gun to his head" from Obama's nefarious DOJ!)

So, yes, I will admit that Romney is on the verge of an enormous, sweeping win that will shock Democrats who believe in statistical science like poll aggregates and in historical polling trends in presidential races.

But to my conservative friends who know that all of the above statements are stone, cold facts, I have a few, simple questions:

If all that is true, why are so many in GOP leadership in full panic mode regarding Romney's campaign?

Why are some top GOP officials (unnamed, of course) calling Wednesday night's first presidential debate in Denver "do or die" for Mitt Romney?

Why has the Romney campaign been in "retooling mode" for weeks now, with one attempted makeover after another?

We all agree, the polls are skewed! Romney is sailing to victory!

Is all of this angst among your leadership just part of an incredibly shrewd and diabolical plot to make Democrats overconfident and to set them up for crushing disappointment on election night?

And are all of you in on this plot, too, with your foaming-at-the-mouth rants on message boards every time a new poll is announced showing Obama surging to a measurable lead, nationally and in swing states?

Is this all one, giant set-up?

Damn! I knew it! I knew you were all brilliant strategists. Every last one of you.

The one thing that puzzles me... How do you keep the memos secret?

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

It's all a plot by George Soros to prepare himself for election of our glorius socialist state in 2016!

MittsDeckShoes
MittsDeckShoes

I knew it! Soros has even gotten to Murdoch! He'll stop at nothing!

AfGuyReturns
AfGuyReturns

Must have... I heard Rupert accidentally registered as a member of the "Independence Party"...

rokinsteve
rokinsteve

Didn't you read the memo that says Soros has a magic terlephone?

paulejb
paulejb

"BREAKING: More Terrible Polling News For Romney"

"From wire reports. A new Media Polling Assn. survey shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney 73–26, with 1 percent undecided. The new poll highlights the challenges for the former governor as the candidates prepare for next week’s first presidential debate, seen by most experts as irrelevant.“This poll is in line with most recent polls showing the futility of the Romney campaign,” pollster Val Jarrett said."

http://www.nationalreview.com/...

MittsDeckShoes
MittsDeckShoes

Can you believe Murdoch is on this liberal media conspiracy? That Eric Holder is a free speech-hating fascist!

paulejb
paulejb

MittsDeckShoes,

Hanlons razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."