Karzai Goes Rogue

Michael Crowely:
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“ that notion of COIN relies, in large measure, on host country support”
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Wait…are you saying that Michael Cohen has it wrong, and that COIN relies, in large measure, on tacit host country support, expressed in the whispers of its impotent leader?
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Or have you missed the whole point of what Cohen said?
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If you have it correct, and “Karzai is playing to his base, so to speak,” then doesn’t this mean there exists a catastrophic lack of “host country support”, at least where it counts –amongst the population of the host country?
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Isn’t that Cohen’s exact point?
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Either way, if Karzai is merely playing to the sentiments of his nation, or he’s suicidally delusional, doesn’t that mean that the requirements for successful COIN are fatally compromised, Michael Crowley?

So sorry, that’s “Michael Crowley,” my apologies for the name misspell.
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There just isn’t enough coffee in the world for me today, unfortunately.

I keep hearing people say that “Karzai needs us as much as we need him” because without American support he would surely be killed. But anyone who follows the news would know that’s clearly not true. None of the real elites in Afghanistan needs our support for their survival or even for their continued prosperity.

As a practical matter, Karzai doesn’t need us at all no matter how bad it gets. If everything falls apart for the Americans, he can just pack up and move to London to spend more time with the billions of dollars he’s stolen from the American taxpayers. The Afghan elites (and the Karzai family in particular) have looted or otherwise finagled so much money that they could all leave Afghanistan at a moments notice and live like bankers in Dubai, London or Paris for a thousand lifetimes.

Michael Crowley’s argument would make sense only if Karzai and the other Afghan elites believed that American forces would prevent them and their families from leaving if the Karzai government collapsed and that we would relentlessly track-down and confiscate every penny held by every Afghan national held abroad. They know we won’t do that because, after all, we’re the people who are always looking forward, never backwards. We aren’t going to force the elites to stay in Afghanistan and neither are we capable of making them penniless refugees.

The problem is that we Americans have been so willing to turn a blind eye to the pervasive corruption in Afghanistan that we have created a situation where Karzai and his gang simply no longer have any “skin” in the game. Consequently, they will continue to bleed us because they understand that the perversities of American politics makes it too difficult for us to dump Karzai and simply leave. And they will continue not to care about Afghanistan’s future because they have sufficiently vast fortunes stockpiled outside the country that it no longer matters to them.

MC,
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It seems that Karzai says something to this effect every couple of months. At what point do you stop saying he’s playing to his base and actually means this stuff? I suppose this question could be asked of any politician playing to his/her base while not following through, but I think a leader of a country we are currently having a war in changes the importance of the question. Karzai’s rhetoric, while can be seen as playing to his base, also gives cover to militias/warlords who say they have the government backing to fight US/NATO.
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So does Karzai, regardless wether he actually has the power to change US/NATO war fighting policy, actually mean it? If we look at his previous statements, I think he does. Maybe we should stop reflexively saying “he’s playing to his base”, even if that’s what our government would like it to be.

Good question, yogi. And you may well be right. One reason I’m suspicious is that Karzai had such a good relationship with McChrystal. It felt a bit like he was playing a nod/wink game. Also, what future does Karzai have, personally, in an Afghanistan where the Americans have left in the foreseeable future? Not much, it seems to me. But you’re right that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

Thanks for your response, MC. You are right that Karzai really has no future without American support. I just wish all politicians would take more care with their words when playing to their base. Words have meaning and consequences, that I think is sometimes lost on them.

Thanks so much for responding to commentary with further thoughts, Michael Crowley, it’s always appreciated.

MC and Yogi,

The only way you guys are right that “Karzai has no future” is if you limit the definition of “future” to continuing as president after the Taliban takes over. I don’t see that happening. What I do see in Karzai’s future is that he will continue to steal billions from us while the American kids bleed and die to keep him in power until it’s time for him to go into a luxurious exile. Such a fate does not strike me as the functional equivalent of being executed by the Taliban.

Here’s how I see things playing out:

On the one hand, because of our crazy political dynamics, Americans will stay in Afghanistan for as long as possible regardless of whether it makes any sense any geopolitical or military terms. We could easily be there for another decade or more. Therefore, Americans will continue to sacrifice themselves so that Karzai can continue to be president. Thanks to our sacrifices, Karzai and his family will continue to build up piles and piles of loot in banks outside Afghanistan. This will be true no matter whether his support for our “mission” is halfhearted or even counterproductive. While America fights in Afghanistan, Karzai has a future—he will continue to accumulate wealth and power at American expense.

On the other hand, should there ever come a time when the Americans are driven out or our political insanity dies down enough to allow the development a consensus in favor of withdrawal, Karzai’s future is still bright. There is no prospect that the American military will block his escape or will turn Karzai and his family over to the Taliban. His fate will be to live as a billionaire in Paris or Dubai or Monte Carlo. By the time he leaves Afghanistan, he and his family are certain to have looted billions of American dollars. They will enjoy wealth far beyond their wildest dreams of avarice. And they will do it in the comfort and safety. All provided courtesy of American blood and treasure.

Seriously, there are a lot of people in Afghanistan without a future but Karzai isn’t one of them. Not by a long stretch.