2010 and 2012

As we head into Tuesday’s vote, it feels like the cake has been baked. Although stunning results are always possible in politics, the real suspense isn’t about Congress. Why? Because even if Democrats maintain control of the House and Senate they’ll almost certainly lose their ability to pass any kind of substantive agenda. Nor is any epic, party-defining figure at risk of losing. (Harry Reid may be the Senate leader, but he’s no visionary and is replaceable.) Sure, some scenarios make life harder than others for White House.* But the real stakes for Barack Obama have to do with 2012. The races for governor of Florida and Ohio remain very tight, with Nate Silver showing a narrow (but apparently shrinking) lead for Republican John Kasich in Ohio and a slight edge for Democrat Alex Sink in Florida. Most political pros will tell you that party control of a governor’s mansion offers a valuable edge in a state’s presidential vote (because a governor can typically dominate media coverage and mobilize a state political machine). And anyone reading this blog already knows the importance of Florida and Ohio in a presidential election.

So be watching on Tuesday not just to see who controls the Congress and how many Tea Party candidates storm the gates, but also whether the governor in those two crucial swing states will be working for–or against–Obama in 2012.

*The big question here has to do with Republican subpoena power, about which I blogged last week.

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  • kevin

    And anyone reading this blog already knows the importance of Florida and Ohio in a presidential election.
    .
    Of course, the importance of those states is amplified when they have corrupt Republican Secretaries of State — Katherine Harris in 2000 Florida and Ken Blackwell in 2004 Ohio — who work hard to throw their state to the Republican ticket. Whatever the cost.
    .
    But Ohio’s secretary of state is a Democrat through 2013, so that won’t be a problem. Florida has an interim appointee now, but no idea if there’s a race to replace her now. Anyone know?

  • Paul-no not that one

    Agree with Kevin, forget the “power” of the Governor to control the media (is that even true?) and focus on who can oversee the election. The SoS.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    But the real stakes for Barack Obama have to do with 2012.

    I’d argue, the reals stakes for him have to do with getting America back on the good track and not just off the bad.

    Too many people’s livelihoods & jobs rely on that for a second term to matter *that* much.

    Honestly, we don’t want politicians who’s only goal is to be reelected and win again. We want effective leaders, and so far Obama has done the best job, in my opinion, of providing that considering the obstacles he’s faced (blue dogs, Lieberman, oppositional republicans).

    Let’s not slide into a mindset of races. Let’s remember why there are elections to fulfill positions in the first place!

  • freeinpa

    “Of course, the importance of those states is amplified when they have corrupt Republican Secretaries of State”
    .
    Of course there is no such thing as a corrupt Democrat. You are delusional

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    “Of course there is no such thing as a corrupt Democrat.”
    .
    Wow! Freakinpa must have done a ton of LSD in the 1960s! He is hallucinating more than 40 years later!
    .
    He thinks somebody wrote that there have never been any Democrats in trouble.
    .
    For many years now, most dramatically on a national level, if there is corruption in the Democratic Party, the corrupt person gets thrown under the bus by the Democratic Party. When there is corruption in the Republican Party, the Republican rally around the corrupt politician and scream about a “liberal media”.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    Agreed.
    .
    In 2012 if the Republicans remain the party of no, the sweep of Democrats coming with Obama’s reelection will be massive since, by then, there will be people who have been unemployed for five years sick of every trick and game the Republicans play.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    You don’t get it either patrick. I don’t care if it is a democrat or a republican that makes the economy go again, and while I’d agree with you that the republicans probably aren’t going to be the better option, I don’t think a majority of americans see or understand enough to actually understand what republican opposition means.
    ·
    The republicans will tread the line of opposing enough to make democrats look bad, while keeping government running. And for them that is a *winning* strategy. For us, it is a losing strategy. For all of America that is a LOSING strategy, unless you care about who wins a f↨cking election.
    ·
    We want action now, not in two years after the republicans or democrats idiotically landslide another election. And, I’ll guarantee the public won’t pay enough attention to lay blame on the Republican table.

  • http://redstatedebate.wordpress.com redstatedebate

    Game Changing Meg Whitman Video

    This video needs to be seen by everyone in California before Tuesday!! … http://conservativeblogscentral.blogspot.com/2010/10/game-changing-meg-whitman-video.html

  • spob

    http://biggovernment.com/publius/2010/10/30/anchorage-cbs-affiliate-caught-on-voicemail-conspiring-against-alaskas-gop-senate-candidate/
    .
    We’ll see if this makes the Swamp. And what about Boxer’s Indian tribe stuff in the Hill?

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    Andrew Breitbart?
    .
    Great source, Spob.
    .
    Are you going to use Mein Kompf or the writings of L Ron Hubbard next as your original source of information? Maybe the John Birch Society can bring us some reliable information.
    .
    Breitbart is an infamous liar, Spob. If it comes from him, then you can bet your bottom dollar that the “facts” are untrue.

  • tanboontee

    Does it really matter which party controls the congress or senate after the mid-term elections?

    If politicians pledge one thing in the campaign and do another when elected, what purpose does it serve?

    American economy is in havoc. What we need immediately are leaders who can diligently and conscientiously tackle the problem and bring back some sanity to the once great nation. Instead all one has are the wild accusations and petty squabbles among the politicians for personal vested interests and gain.

    Many voters are fed up, while many others have given up. Is that the kind of democracy the US wants to sell to the world? Utterly ludicrous. (btt1943)

  • 53_3

    4022

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