Government Shutdown? Impeachment? The GOP After November

Updated below

Jonathan Bernstein sketches his view of the likeliest scenario for Congressional Republicans after November:

The third strategy would be to forget about their agenda, and basically pretend they’re still in opposition — that is, to continue rejectionism.  Don’t think 1995, or 1997-2000, but think more of 1993-1994.  Obviously, this works best if they don’t actually take control of either House of Congress, or at the very least fall short in the Senate.  Still, they certainly could try it even if they have majorities in Congress.  They could (as Democrats did this year) not bother with a budget.  They would have to pass appropriations bills, but instead of using that process to really challenge the status quo, they would win some symbolic stuff, and fight carefully chosen fights on specific issues.  So they could actually eliminate earmarks and make a big show about including a statement of Constitutional legitimacy in all the bills they pass, giving them some victories to take home, and they could stage some losing votes on Tea Party priorities, preferably Constitutional amendments that they could all vote for without risking much.  Then, they could pass most of the appropriations bills without major veto-bait, but go ahead and maybe zero out some ACA funding and have a major fight over that one before surrendering, without the threat of a government shutdown hanging over everything.  Oh, and they could schedule votes all day long on cap-and-trade, and Obama’s budget, and try to get Dems to take bad votes on them — while fighting real fights over in the Senate on judicial and exec branch nominations.

He doesn’t see a government shutdown fight coming. And John Boehner, surely mindful of Newt Gingrich’s example, says that’s not his goal.

Meanwhile TNR‘s Jonathan Chait is confident that Republicans “are going to impeach President Obama” over something, perhaps TBD. But for now House Oversight and Government Reform Committee chairman Darrell Issa tells our Jay Newton-Small that impeachment isn’t part of his plan.

Update: Jon Cohn lists three silver linings for Democrats in a Republican sweep.

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  • nflfoghorn

    “…maybe zero out some ACA funding and have a major fight over that one before surrendering, without the threat of a government shutdown hanging over everything”
    .
    Our nation would be in their gratitude for finding a fresh new way to do nothing of governing significance.

  • nflfoghorn

    “…Republicans ‘are going to impeach President Obama’ over something, perhaps TBD”
    .
    RE the Sestak “scandal?”
    THAT’S a “high crime…and misdemeanor”?
    Even lamer than lying about sex.

  • kevin

    So they could actually eliminate earmarks
    .
    Oh, Christ, I’m laughing so hard I’m crying here.

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek

    In other words they have no plans to do anything constructive while the nation is in crisis. The metaphor that keeps crowding out all the others is of a baby, kicking and screaming, until it gets it’s way.

  • Paul-no not that one

    I’ll say this for the republicans, they are making no effort at a bait and switch.
    .
    None of this “Serve the people” stuff. And if they get control of the House they will do exactly what they say they will.
    .
    Hey, you knew that when you voted for us.

  • newfreedomblog

    If anyone wonders where the Stimulus dollars are being spent. One only needs to read the posts of all the TIME.com, ragazine writers.
    .
    Tell me Mr Crowley, do you get reimbursed for all your hatchet job articles you do on Republicans in stimulus dollars these days from the Obama Administration?

  • kbanginmotown

    Wanted:
    .
    Grown-Ups (25+ yoa) willing to become GOP Congressional Candidates
    .
    Must be willing to debate, legislate and govern matters of economic, security, and constitutional impact on the USA.
    .
    May be pro-/anti-: abortion, guns, witchcraft, health care, budgets, war, with an interest in finding common ground on national solutions.
    .
    People interested in: scheduling nonsense votes to make campaign ads, fabricating death panels, hyping takeover of US by Sharia Law, declaring community centers to be threats to this nation’s existence, and other conspiracy theories, need not apply.

  • nflfoghorn

    I think MS gets paid in dollars. In your country, it must be fool’s gold, which is really valuable nowadays I hear.

  • Michael Crowley

    Thanks to the red tape of our sclerotic federal bureaucracy I haven’t been paid in months, it’s really frustrating.

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek

    Once the Republicans regain power by sheer obstinacy and obstruction they will demand Democrats work in a bipartisan fashion with them, and all the redneck Democrats will.

  • destor23

    They are not going to impeach Obama over anything. I don’t think the public would stand for that again.

  • kevin

    Tell me Mr Crowley, do you get reimbursed for all your hatchet job articles you do on Republicans in stimulus dollars these days from the Obama Administration?
    .
    I love it when conservatives project.
    .
    Rusty, if you’re looking for a White House that paid off journalists to “catapult the propaganda” for them, you’re an administration too late.
    .
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-01-06-williams-whitehouse_x.htm
    .
    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/29/politics/29column.html

  • Paul-no not that one

    It is not the public that controls their fate.
    .
    It’s their base, and the base will not be happy with a bunch of RINOs ignoring what will be glaring high crimes and misdemeanors.

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek

    I’d like to know what the Republicans or Democrats plan to do about the 30 or 40 million people that are going to be unemployed, for the next 10 years, if the both of them don’t take job growth seriously pretty soon.

  • nflfoghorn

    MC, how do you eat???

  • GivenUp

    It’s gonna get worse before it gets better folks, if we’re lucky there won’t be a civil or international war by the time we pull ourselves out of this.

  • 3xfire3

    Michael,
    .
    Is this a Journolist approved story?
    .
    It certainly sounds like one.
    .
    The Republicans are not going to try to impeach President Obama. That’s garbage reporting.
    .
    Since the American public is rejecting Obama’s and the Democrat’s agenda, why don’t you write a story about that whys behind this rejection.
    .
    Americans do not want Progressivism. It is totally rejected.
    That would be a great story to tell.

  • 3xfire3

    Agreed. It’s not something that a large majority of Republicans in and out of Congress would want to do.
    .

  • 53_3

    I know that right down the street, at the foot of Benson Road, here in Renton, there are 115 construction jobs courtesy of Obama’s stimulus.
    .
    And that is only one infrastructure project…

  • 53_3

    I take a bit of solace in thinking of Jackie Robinson…

  • newfreedomblog

    Freedom of speech in America, well free to speak or say as long as you do not object or tell Obama that he is lying.
    .
    This is a very good video on how his supporters will react if their “dear Leader” is challenged.
    .
    Obama had been putting down Republicans and Conservatives when the young man called him a liar, then quickly changed his rhetoric once the others in the crowd began to beat him up and throw him around.
    .
    Justice in America liberal style.
    .

  • 53_3

    “Americans do not want Progressivism. It is totally rejected.
    That would be a great story to tell.”

    .
    It would definitely be a story…

  • newfreedomblog

    (Being stuartzechman)
    .
    Thank you Mr Crowley so much, so very much for responding to commentary, it is greatly appreciated.
    .
    Oh, thank you also for acknowledging you do indeed shill for the Democrats, as well as this Administration.
    .
    I guess that last statement was not very “zechman-like” but I am sure you get my point.
    .
    Enjoy!!
    . :)

  • Paul-no not that one

    Attacked? I swear republicans are softer than pillows.

  • 53_3

    More Rusty Racial Hatred. He’s certainly on a roll today…

  • Paul-no not that one

    It begins.
    .
    “Republican leaders may be growing squeamish about a showdown with the White House over the health care law next Congress. But if you think the conservative base is just going to sit back and give them a pass, you’re sorely mistaken”
    .
    That’s completely unacceptable according to one Tea Party leader.
    .
    “Maybe I’m just one of those yahoos, but I think it’s crazy to take anything off the table,” said Mark Meckler, cofounder of the Tea Party Patriots. “Unfortunately i think Cantor is repeatedly making this mistake.”
    .
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/tea-party-leader-slams-cantor-for-taking-government-shutdown-off-the-table.php?ref=fpblg

  • husein11

    Mike is just another liberal America hater who is upset that real Americans are going to be back in charge. Mike, you left a few things off your list of things that the Republicans will do which makes you and the rest of the liberal America haters so upset: They will stop giving handouts to ne’er-do-wells who look for handouts and despite having a president who is not qualified to run a lemonade stand will create a work environment for anyone who wants a job will be able to get one.

  • allthingsinaname

    The GOP doesn’t want to rule; that would make them accountable but, they don’t want the other guy to rule either; that would make them look weak and accountable. The next best thing is to screw everything up and blame everyone else.

  • newfreedomblog

    Yes attacked. No not softer than pillows. Just wait until Obambi the grand Poobah of racial instigators really revs it up. I am sure we can have one of the biggest class warfares this country has ever seen.
    .
    The man who gave the speech not less than 2 years ago, attempting to bring out his best impersonation of Martin Luther King, Jr has now fallen to the debts of the worst race relations this country has ever seen before.

  • jsfox

    Care to show me what Republican policies that are currently being touted creates jobs, balances the budget and moves the country forward?

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    What genre under fiction would that story belong in: Mystery, Romance, Science Fiction, or Fantasy?

  • freeinpa

    More IQ3 denials of liberals racism, he is right back to form

  • freeinpa

    “The next best thing is to screw everything up and blame everyone else.”
    .

    And that has been Obama’s strategy for the past 2 years. He even looked for somebody to blame when the Presidential seal fell off the podium.

  • newfreedomblog

    Watch this video, and then read the Pledge to America. Enlighten yourself. Perhaps you will rediscover what you lost in the fairytales the Democrats who you elected have told you for so many year, jsfox.
    .

  • shepherdwong

    After November…
    .
    More traitorous Republican obstruction of the nation’s business for fun and profit and more traitorous lies about the President. Same as it ever was.

  • newfreedomblog

    That is all that IQ53 and his kind have left, freeinpa.
    .
    He can’t debate the issues. He can’t debate what Obama has done to this country and it’s people in 2 short years.
    .
    IQ53′s only purpose in life is to further the divide which Obama has created in this country. In order for the likes of IQ53 to complete the destruction they have sought for all of us in America, he has to put out this faux pas racist meme in order to pit us against one another.
    .
    It is truly so sad.

  • newfreedomblog

    Sad part is, they are indeed the joke. Cracker anyone?
    .

  • newfreedomblog

  • jsfox

    Free I have read the pledge

    And here is what it will do. Mostly likely cause a double dip recession and push the country closer to default.

    It is a complete fiscal fraud and if you cannot see that than you are truly delusional.

    It is a continuation or rather a return to policies that created not one job, and blew the budget deficit up in the first place.

  • nflfoghorn

    “Surrendering”? How very un-Republican!

  • fhmadvocat

    Well, Rusty,

    At least this student was able to get close enough to Obama to call him a liar. If I remember correctly, protesters against W. weren’t even allowed with 1000 feet of Bush.

    I guess that what you call Freedom of Speech, Republican style.

  • Ike Jakson

    People will blah blah about alternative options and what whom will do or what not do.

    Nobody wants to mention what is really the end result though it is so simple.

    Obama will be on his way out of the White House. He should never have been there and it is time for him to go. Mid-term will effectively spell the end of his Administration.

    http://ikejakson.wordpress.com/2010/09/23/obama-is-out/

  • fhmadvocat

    What Americans don’t want is deficit spending. As far as “Progressivism” most Americans either want it or don’t care.

    As James Carville famously said, “It’s the Economy, Stupid.” If unemployment was down to 6 or 7%, Obama could be as Liberal as he wants on social issues and he would be unbeatable in 2012.

    If you have noticed, despite their conservative leanings, most Tea Parties have stayed away from social issues. Most people don’t care about abortion and gay marriage. One guy who will lose is Mike Huckaby, because he is not pure enough on economic issues.

    While more Americans are ideologically conservative, in practice, they are liberal. If you don’t believe me, ask a congressman to propose a major cut in any major program in the budget and see what happens.

    Trust me, the Republicans are not going to propose anything if they take over the House (Paul Ryan being an exception). Like the first article said, they are not going to give any votes for the Democrats to beat them up with. Cutting the budget requires tough decisions, and neither Democrats or Republicans in Congress have the guts.

  • kevin

    ask a congressman to propose a major cut in any major program in the budget and see what happens.
    .
    This is what happens:
    .

  • jsfox

    “Obama will be on his way out of the White House. He should never have been there and it is time for him to go. Mid-term will effectively spell the end of his Administration.”

    I could have sworn I heard the same silliness about Clinton after the ’94 mid-terms.

  • nflfoghorn

    No swearing needed. History: lather, rinse, repeat.

  • diecash1

    Obama will be on his way out of the White House. He should never have been there and it is time for him to go. Mid-term will effectively spell the end of his Administration.

    Yet another post comprised entirely of hot air. Nice job Ike. You do realize that Obama won in a virtual landslide in ’08 don’t you? Probably not. In fantasy douchebag land McGramps is the Prez. BTW, way to keep your string alive: Hundreds of posts, still not one right yet.

  • squirmz

    there it is. the “Real Murukan” line again…..

  • apr2563

    How can they not impeach? Obama is a Kenyan, socialist, nazi, anti-American, Muslim, black man. Even more than their feelings that Clinton was an illegitimate president, the right wing reactionaries believe that Obama is a manchurian candidate. The Republicans are so enthrall of the crazy base (Beck and Fox and hate radio will be on a tear) that they just might think impeachment is peachy.

  • apr2563

    Besides the traditional media will love the prospect of another impeachment. Much like the Iraqi war, they will be routing for it.

  • apr2563

    Make that rooting for…

  • Paul-no not that one

    You may have been right the first time apr2563.

  • 3xfire3

    Liberals understand reality. NO.

  • 3xfire3

    gumonass,
    .
    “What genre under fiction would that story belong in: Mystery, Romance, Science Fiction, or Fantasy?”
    .
    Watch and learn. November 2 you and your warped ideology will be rejected.
    .
    Enjoy you 40 Year vacation in the desert. You deserve it.

  • 3xfire3

    Some of you may have missed this earlier post so I thought I would post it again for your benefit.
    .
    We are about to Witness the Largest Meltdown of any Political Party in the history of our country.
    .
    The Republicans will win a majority in both the Senate and the House.
    .
    Obama and the Liberal members of Congress are being totally rejected by the American Public. They have awakened the Sleeping Giant of Middle Class America. Now that the Giant is awake Liberal/Progressive will not be a significant factor in our political system for many years to come.
    .
    You have been outed and now that the American public knows what you are trying to do to our country and its citizens they will not fall back asleep for a very long time. Maybe never.

    .

  • 3xfire3

    Reprinted for the benifit of our Liberal friends.
    .
    Update on the Battles for the House
    .
    Nate Silver’s Forecast
    .
    Democrats… 211
    Republicans. 224
    .
    This means Republicans win the House with 6 seats to spare. A Pick Up [Gain] of 44 Seats.
    .
    Real Clear Politics Summary of Leading Polls
    .
    Democrats….186
    Republicans. 210 [Need 218 to be majority in House]
    Toss Ups ……39 Republicans need to win 8 out of 39 to become majority
    …………………………………………………………………
    .
    Update of Battles for Governors
    .
    Nate Silver’s Forecast
    .
    Republicans 30
    Democrats 19
    .
    Real Clear Politics Summary of Leading Polls
    .
    Republicans 31
    Democrats 19
    .
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

    .

  • 3xfire3

    Real Clear Politics Summary of Leading Polls show
    .
    Democrats ….50 Senate Seats
    .
    Republicans…50 senate Seats
    .
    There are 3 ½ weeks to go before the election. With Republicans gaining and Democrats losing in the polls, it is not looking good for the Democrats.
    .
    There is a strong probability that Republicans will take control of both houses of Congress. This is a near total rejection of the Obama Liberal agenda.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

  • Paul-no not that one

    “Sleeping Giant of Middle Class America”
    .
    Heh-sanitized The Physician’s term, I note.

  • apr2563

    On the Republican Line: CSPAN

  • 3xfire3

    Apr,
    .
    Which song was it you liked so much?
    .
    Cry Me a River or Born to Lose.
    .
    November is coming.

  • 3xfire3

    Projected Republican Gains Approach 50 House Seats
    .
    By NATE SILVER …October 8, 2010
    .
    It has become fashionable to speak of a Democratic comeback, but we’re not really seeing one in our forecasting models. Certainly there are some individual races — particularly on the East and West Coasts, as well as some gubernatorial contests outside these regions — that look better for Democrats than they did a few weeks ago. But we’re showing Republicans gaining ground where they need to gain it to maintain decent chances of taking over the Senate. We also show improvement for them in the House forecast this week.
    .
    Our model now estimates that the Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking over the House, up from 67 percent last week. Moreover, they have nearly even odds of a achieving a net gain of 50 seats; their average gain in a typical simulation run was between 47 and 48 seats. However, the playing field remains very broad and considerably larger are possible, as are considerably smaller ones.
    .
    Republican gains this week are mostly the result of factors at the local level; the national environment is roughly stable. The expert forecasters whose judgment we incorporate into the model continue to revise their characterizations of races, and in almost all cases, the changes work toward the benefit of Republicans. Cook Political, for instance, in a break from its usual convention of not classifying seats held by incumbents as worse than toss-ups, this week decided to classify 10 seats currently held by Democratic incumbents, including the seat held by Alan Grayson in Florida’s 8th Congressional District, as leaning toward the Republicans.
    .
    Looks like even Congressman Alan Insane Grayson is going down to defeat. This was supposed to be a safe seat.
    .
    Nate Silvers is also projecting defeat for good old Harry Reid.
    .
    Looks like Progressivism is just not catching on with the American Citizens.

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