In what’s already been a headspinning political cycle, in which the conventional wisdom has been upturned again and again, and where the “old” rules of campaigning don’t apply, McCain is throwing (or talking about throwing) another monkey wrench into the works: He told the Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes he “won’t rule out” a pro-choice running mate.
It’s difficult to predict what such a selection would do to the polls. On the one hand, picking a pro-choice VP — especially Lieberman — would signal a real departure from the Party of Bush, and would underscore McCain’s history of working with not just the other party, but with people who disagree with him in general. On the other hand: evangelicals. For all the stories written about Obama’s appeal to born-agains, the rising generation of evangelical Christians, though more liberal on many issues than their parents, are even more adamantly pro-life. They see “protecting the rights of the unborn” as a civil rights issue on par with their other social goals: eliminating poverty, stopping global warming, and a live-and-let-live attitude toward gay marriage.
The good news for McCain has been that his policies have common ground with that world view, even if they don’t entirely overlap. The bad news is that Obama’s policies share even more common ground. Abortion is the one area where neo-evangelicals can make a clear distinction between the two candidates, and some conservative leaders have voiced the hope that Obama’s pro-choice record would turn out this unenthusiastic base even if McCain himself couldn’t.
If McCain chooses a pro-choice veep, that distinction and the negative incentive to vote for McCain evaporates. They might vote for McCain, sure, or they could stay home, as many think they will now, or, given the lack of a distinct difference in abortion stance, they might They’d either stay home or, not as likely but possible, vote for Obama out of a yearning for change and the weight of their other, shared social goals.*
The wildcard here is whether McCain choosing Lieberman makes it more or less likely that Obama is the Antichrist.
*Fixed to avoid the perception that I am not guessing wildly at what might happen. Thanks, Stuart.