Re: Poll Magic – USAT/Gallup has McCain up by 4

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We should be as doubtful about McCain being up 4 as we should have been about Obama being up 9. I think you can recycle Mark Blumenthal’s points about the earlier poll to apply to this one, especially, I think, this: “[I]f the volatility is about voter preferences and not poll methodology, [it's due to] as many as a third of registered voters [being] willing to say they are less than certain about their choice.”

That said, McCain campaign’s morale has gotten a much-desired boost. If nothing else, it’s a reminder that, as a Republican with ties to the campaign told me recently, “I always have to remind myself that national reporters don’t really see things like voters do.”