Those Iowa “Polls”

It seems like those anti-Mormon calls are getting the lion’s share of media attention (check this), but, meanwhile, Ben Smith has done some leg work on the mysterious Iowa polls that asked about Edwards not staying home with his ill wife:

My source says the poll actually took two tracks, and included questions about all three leading Democrats.

….

The pollster actually changed the Edwards question after complaints became public, a few days into the survey. It began by testing the message about Elizabeth Edwards’ health. But after that stirred controversy, the question was changed to focus on his past as a trial lawyer.

Mark Blumenthal theorizes as to the purpose of the calls and hypothesizes some sort of “micro targeting”:

The survey involved just five or six questions, but included questions about strength of support and second choice — two important measures if your aim is to identify very small target subgroups (“micro targets”) from a sample of thousands of potential Iowa Caucus-goers. Moreover, the fact that the sponsors switched the wording more than once, first to a less offensive “negative” about Edwards and then to a version that did not attach specific candidate names to the negatives, all suggests this was some sort of micro-targeting or “data harvesting” project.

…I am now doubtful that the sole motive was to spread a nasty negative about John Edwards. The initial questions asked, the call center used and the fact that that the sponsors apparently changed the “negatives” more than once in reaction to the public backlash, all suggest that the main purpose of the project was some sort of micro-targeting. However, the pattern also suggests the sponsors were indifferent, at best, to including an explosive personal attack on John and Elizabeth Edwards, a fact they will have to answer to if their identity is revealed.

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