Topline Results of Feb. 17-20, 2012, CNN/TIME/ORC Poll

ARIZONA

BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 467 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE ARIZONA REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY — SAMPLING ERROR:  +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum  (RANDOM ORDER)

Feb. 17-20

Romney 36%
Santorum 32%
Gingrich 18%
Paul 6%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) 1%
No opinion 6%

2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

Feb. 17-20

Definitely support  58%
Might change mind 34%
No opinion 8%

No opinion includes respondents with no first choice in Q.1.

1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support.

Total (Men) (Women) (Under 50) (50 and Older)

Frm  Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 18% (21%) (15%) (N/A) (17%)
Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% (7%) (6%) (N/A) (7%)
Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney 36% (34%) (38%) (N/A) (36%)
Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 32% (31%) (33%) (N/A) (34%)
Someone else * (*) (*) (N/A) (*)
None/no one 1% (1%) (1%) (N/A) (1%)
No opinion 6% (5%) (7%) (N/A) (5%)
Sampling Error +/-4.5  (+/-6.5) (+/-6.5) (N/A) (+/-5.0)

Total (Under $50K) ($50K or more) (No College Degree) (College Grad)

Frm  Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 18% (20%) (18%) (19%) ( 17%)
Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% (10%) (5%) (6%) (7%)
Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney 36% (36%) (37%) (35%) (38%)
Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 32% (28%) (33%) (33%) (31%)
Someone else * (*) (*) (*) (*)
None/no one 1% (2%) (1%) (1%) (1%)
No opinion 6% (4%) (6%) (6%) (6%)
Sampling Error +/-4.5 (+/-8.5) (+/-6.5) (+/-6.5) (+/-6.5)

Total (Moderate or Liberal) (Conservative) (Born Again Yes) (Born Again No) (White Collar) (Blue Collar)

Frm  Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 18% (N/A) (17%) (20%) (15%) (17%) (17%)
Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% (N/A) (5%) (5%) (8%) (5%) (8%)
Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney 36% (N/A) (34%) (28%) (42%) (39%) (34%)
Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 32% (N/A) (35%) (37%) (30%) (32%) (33%)
Someone else  * (N/A) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*)
None/no one 1% (N/A) (1%) (*) (1%) (1%) (3%)
No opinion 6% (N/A) (7%) (9%) (3%) (5%) (5%)
Sampling Error +/-4.5 (+/-5.0) (+/-7.0) (+/-6.0) (+/-6.0)  (+/-7.5)

Total (Maricopa) (Rest of State) (Urban) (Suburban/Rural) (Tea Pty Support) (Tea Pty Neutral/Oppose)

Frm  Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 18% (17%) (20%) (14%) (21%) (21%) (15%)
Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% (5%) (9%) (7%) (4%) (7%) (5%)
Frm MA Governor Mitt Romney 36% (38%) (33%) (40%) (35%) (32%) (42%)
Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 32% (32%) (33%) (30%) (35%) (35%) (27%)
Someone else * (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*)
None/no one 1% (2%) (1%) (3%) (1%) (*) (3%)
No opinion 6% (7%) (5%) (6%) (4%) (4%) (8%)
Sampling Error +/-4.5 (+/-5.5) (+/-8.0) (+/-6.5) (+/-6.5) (+/-6.0) (+/-7.0)

* percentage less than 1%

2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind?

Total (Men) (Women) (Under 50) (50 and Older)

Definitely support 58% (57%) (60%) (N/A) (62%)
Might change mind 34% (36%) (32%) (N/A) (31%)
No opinion 8% (7%) (8%) (N/A) (7%)
Sampling Error +/-4.5 (+/-6.5) (+/-6.5) (N/A) (+/-5.0)

Total (Under $50K) ($50K or more) (No College Degree) (College Grad)

Definitely support 58% (58%) (56%) (61%) (56%)
Might change mind 34% (35%) (37%) (32%) (36%)
No opinion 8% (7%) (7%) (7%) (8%)
Sampling Error +/-4.5  (+/-8.5) (+/-6.5)  (+/-6.5) (+/-6.5)

Total (Moderate or Liberal) (Conservative) (Born Again Yes) (Born Again No) (White Collar) (Blue Collar)

Definitely support 58%  (N/A) (57%) (53%) (63%) (61%) (55%)
Might change mind 34% (N/A) (34%) (37%) (33%) (33%) (38%)
No opinion 8% (N/A) (9%) (11%) (4%) (6%) (8%)
Sampling Error +/-4.5 (N/A) (+/-5.0) (+/-7.0) (+/-6.0) (+/-6.0) (+/-7.5)

Total (Maricopa) (Rest of State) (Urban) (Suburban/Rural) (Tea Pty Support) (Tea Pty Neutral/Oppose)

Definitely support 58% (59%) (58%) (67%) (52%) (65%) (50%)
Might change mind 34% (33%) (37%) (24%) (43%) (31%) (39%)
No opinion 8% (9%) (5%) (9%) (6%) (4%) (12%)
Sampling Error +/-4.5 (+/-5.5) (+/-8.0) (+/-6.5) (+/-6.5) (+/-6.0) (+/-7.0)

* percentage less than 1%