I was definitely among the skeptics Jay mentions when it came to the prospects of a Palin presidential run in 2012. Since she stepped down from the governorship last year, she had taken few concrete steps in that direction. Showing interest in a TV career is a pretty strong indication that a politician has ambitions that don’t include elected office (see Huckabee, Mike), charging county-level Republican parties exorbitant speaking fees wins few friends at the grassroots level and, perhaps most important of all, she simply wasn’t putting together a staff or network of federal candidates indebted to her for support and financial backing. Having a PAC and making endorsements is one thing, but actually spending dough on the guts of a proto-presidential campaign is a different beast altogether. I saw someone flirting with a bid, but not actively pursuing one.
Palin’s July political action committee filing changes all that. Much attention has been paid to the size of the haul: She raised $865,815 in the second quarter and comes out with $1,039,961 cash on hand. That’s actually more or less consistent with last year. Much more telling is how she’s now spending that money. Up until April of this year, Palin had only given a few thousand dollars to political candidates and spent relatively little on consulting. But in the last three months she’s given $87,500 to federal candidates and committees, launched a $153,680 direct mail campaign, and spent $215,533 on policy advisers, a speech writer, and political/media consulting.
Before getting carried away, it’s worth putting these numbers in context. Mitt Romney has been doing this kind of aggressive spending and staffing for much longer. When Palin endorsed Nikki Haley in South Carolina, the media had a field day. And when the candidate won her primary, there was much talk of the Palin of bump. Not mentioned: Romney endorsed her months earlier and funneled $42,000 to Haley through his federal and state PACs. He’s been dropping huge amounts of money on the New Hampshire Republican Party and Granite State candidates. Sarah PAC’s July filing shows she didn’t donate to Haley and hasn’t spent a dime in New Hampshire.
Palin’s second quarter numbers don’t show a fully formed political operation, let alone a dominant one. But they provide a glimmer of something I wasn’t convinced we were seeing yet: the real beginning of a bid.
A breakdown of which candidates she donated to after the jump:
Tim Scott (SC-1): $5,000
Vaughn Ward (ID-1): $4,000
Rick Berg (ND-U.S. Congress): $3,500
Tim Griffin (AR-2): $3,500
Clint Didier (WA-Sen): $5,000
Larry Bucshon (IN-8): $3,500
David McKinley (WV-1): $3,500
Mick Mulvaney (SC-5): $3,500
Joe Miller (AK-Sen): $5,000
Tom Marino (PA-10): $3,500
Robert Hurt (VA-5) $3,500
Spike Maynard (WV-3) $3,500
Todd Young (IN-9) $3,500
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) $5,000
Jim Renacci (OH-16) $3,500
Carly Fiorina (FL-Sen): $2,500
Star Parker (CA-37) $5,000
Sharron Angle (NV-Sen): $2,500
John Koster (WA-2): $5,000
Mike Kelly (PA-3): $3,500
Chuck Grassley (IA-Sen): $5,000
Terry Branstad (IA-Gov): $5,000