Morning Must Reads: Lock and Load

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Ben Nelson's Office

Photo courtesy of Ben Nelson’s office

–After so many months of vitriolic debate and soap-operatic drama, one might be skeptical when they hear this is the week health reform faces its ultimate test. But it is.  House markup of the reconciliation package is scheduled to begin at 3 pm today. The final CBO score is forthcoming. The White House raised expectations over the weekend. As Karen said: lock and load.

–Nate Silver puts the odds at a “cautiously optimistic” 50-64 percent chance of passage and shows his math.

–There are actually a few different ways the House could handle the vote; Jonathan Cohn explains.

–Obama continues the final push today on the road in Ohio.

–Don’t read too much into it, but he’s headed to the district of recalcitrant Rep. Dennis Kucinich.

–Meanwhile, he’s leaning hard on wavering Dems, promising campaign visits and fundraisers before the fall. I imagine invitations to the big New York City DCCC event were doled out carefully.

–Something that shouldn’t be lost in the health care shuffle: Sen. Dodd is expected to unveil his financial regulation bill today.

–Marc Ambinder identifies four pillars of the bill and parses the politics of each.

–Democrats see the issue as a winner and are planning a post-health care pivot.

Tensions continue over Israel’s announcement of new construction in East Jerusalem during Biden’s visit. After more harsh rebukes from the Obama administration over the weekend, pro-Israel lobby AIPAC pans the “escalated rhetoric.”

–Netanyahu is creating a committee to investigate the timing of the decision.

–James Oliphant writes Obama is losing his opportunity to revamp the federal judiciary with his appointments.

–Jeffrey Toobin gets a rare interview with Justice Stevens and imagines the court after his departure.

–Just after her name was floated for a Gillibrand challenge, Diana Taylor rules it out.

–Republicans have been unable to hang on to any high-profile prospective candidates so far; perhaps the reason former governor Pataki still won’t give a definitive “no.”

What did I miss?