Will the assassination of Benazir Bhutto have any impact on the presidential primaries? Over the course of the year, and especially as Iraq has fallen from the top of the news, surveys have shown voters to be more and more preoccupied with domestic issues — the economy, health care, etc. But Bhutto’s assassination and the turmoil in Pakistan might exacerbate people’s fears about the chaotic state of the world and the threat of Islamic terrorism, and increase the sentiment that such times call for an experienced leader in the Oval. If so, who benefits? Among the Republicans, the assumption (certainly by their campaigns) is that McCain and Giuliani benefit while Romney and Huckabee suffer. Among the front-running Democrats, Clinton would seem to benefit (as well as Biden and Richardson), while Obama and Edwards would not.
But the impact of international events on domestic elections can be hard to predict. Take McCain’s resurgence among the Republicans. McCain brandished his hawkish stand on Iraq earlier this year. Together with immigration, it nearly killed his campaign. Now that Iraq has receded as an issue and turned into a positive of sorts, at least for him, McCain has risen from the ashes. But that may be mere coincidence. McCain is benefitting far less from his steadfast stance on Iraq or his national security experience than he is from the unprecedented fluidity of the GOP race, the general unhappiness of Republican voters with their choices and the surprise surge of Mike Huckabee as a potential Romney-killer in Iowa. McCain is also running as an underdog, as he did in 2000, and the mantle suits his political temperament far better than that of establishment front-runner.