BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 369 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY — SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?
Jan. 22-24 (Jan.13-17) (Nov.29-Dec.6)
Romney 36% (43%) (25%)
Gingrich 34% (18%) (48%)
Santorum 11% (19%) (1%)
Paul 9% (9%) (5%)
Someone else (vol.) * (*) (1%)
None/ No one (vol.) 4% (3%) (3%)
Bachmann N/A (N/A) (3%)
Huntsman N/A (N/A) (3%)
Perry N/A (2%) (3%)
No opinion 7% (6%) (7%)
NOTE: In Jan. 13-17 poll, Jon Huntsman’s name was included in the list of candidates through January 15. Results indicate the second choice of respondents who chose Huntsman as their first choice. In Nov. 29-Dec. 6 poll, Herman Cain’s name was included in the list of candidates until December 3. Results indicate the second choice of respondents who chose Cain as their first choice.
2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?
Jan. 22-24 (Jan. 13-17) (Nov. 29–Dec. 6)
Definitely support 64% (53%) ( 37%)
Might change mind 25% (38%) (53%)
Other (vol.) * (*) (*)
No opinion 11% (9%) (10%)
No opinion includes respondents with no first choice in Q.1.
In Florida, a total of 1,503 adults, including 410 registered Republicans, were interviewed by telephone using standard random-digit dialing methods. All respondents were asked questions concerning their registration status and basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state. 369 likely voters were identified based on each respondent’s party registration status (only registered Republicans were selected), stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and self-reported voting history.