Topline Results of Dec. 21-27, 2011, CNN/TIME/ORC Poll

IOWA

BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 452 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WHO ARE LIKELY TO ATTEND THE IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS IN THEIR COMMUNITY. — SAMPLING ERROR:
+/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

1. If the Republican presidential caucus in your community were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?

Dec. 21-27  (Nov. 29–Dec. 6)

Romney 25% (20%)
Paul 22% (17%)
Santorum 16% (5%)
Gingrich 14% (33%)
Perry 11% (9%)
Bachmann 9% (7%)
Huntsman 1% (1%)
Someone else  * (*)
None/ No one * (2%)
No opinion 2% (5%)

NOTE: Herman Cain’s name was included in the list of candidates until December 3. Results indicate the second choice of respondents who chose Cain as their first choice.

2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind?

Dec. 21-27 (Nov. 29–Dec. 6)

Definitely support 54% (39%)
Might change mind 43% ( 55%)
Other  *( *)
No opinion 3% (7%)

No opinion includes respondents with no first choice in Q.1.

3. Next I’m going to read the names of some of those candidates. As I read each name, please tell me whether you would consider supporting that person for the Republican nomination or whether you would not support them for the nomination under any circumstances? (RANDOM ORDER)

Would consider / Would not consider / Currently supporting / No opinion

Michele Bachmann: 55% / 36% / 9% / *
Newt Gingrich: 46% / 39% / 14% / 1%
Ron Paul: 36% / 41% / 22% / 1%
Rick Perry: 64% / 25% / 11% / 1%
Mitt Romney: 43% / 31% / 25% / 1%

4. Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide whom to vote for – where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you, or the leadership skills and vision you think the candidates would have as president?

Stance on issues 44%
Leadership skills and vision 49%
Both (vol.) 7%
Neither (vol.) *
No opinion 1%

5. Overall, which Republican candidate do you think best represents the personal characteristics and qualities that you think a President should have?

Romney 25%
Paul 19%
Santorum 18%
Perry 12%
Gingrich 11%
Bachmann 10%
Huntsman 2%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) 1%
No opinion 2%

6. Which Republican candidate is most likely to agree with you on the issues that matter most to you?

Paul 22%
Romney 18%
Santorum 17%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 12%
Perry 12%
Huntsman 1%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 4%

7. Which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election next November?

Romney 41%
Gingrich 17%
Paul 14%
Perry 8%
Bachmann 4%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 1%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 8%

8. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote in the Republican presidential caucus — will it be extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important? (RANDOM ORDER)

Extremely / Very / Moderately / Not that important / No opinion

The economy: 44% / 50% / 5% / * / *
Foreign affairs and national security:  26% / 48% / 24% / 2% / *
Moral issues such as abortion and gay marriage: 22% / 32% / 27% / 19% / *

9. And, thinking specifically about the economy, which of the following is the most important economic issue facing the country today? (RANDOM ORDER)

The federal budget deficit 60%
Unemployment 20%
Taxes 13%
The price of gasoline 3%
The stock market 2%
Mortgages and housing costs *
Other (vol.) 1%
No opinion 1%


NEW HAMPSHIRE

BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 543 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS WHO ARE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY — SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4 PERCENTAGE PTS.

1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) And if that candidate decides not to run for president for any reason, who would be your second choice?

Dec. 21-27 (Nov. 29–Dec. 6)

Romney 44% (35%)
Paul 17% (17%)
Gingrich 16% (26%)
Huntsman 9% (8%)
Santorum 4% (2%)
Bachmann 3% (3%)
Perry 2% (2%)
Someone else * (1%)
None/ No one 1% (1%)
No opinion 4% (6%)

NOTE: Herman Cain’s name was included in the list of candidates until December 3. Results indicate the second choice of respondents who chose Cain as their first choice.

2. Would you say you will definitely support that candidate, or is it possible you would change your mind?

Dec. 21-27 (Nov. 29–Dec. 6)

Definitely support 51% (44%)
Might change mind 45% (48%)
Other * (*)
No opinion 4% (8%)

No opinion includes respondents with no first choice in Q.1.

3. Next I’m going to read the names of some of those candidates. As I read each name, please tell me whether you would consider supporting that person for the Republican nomination or whether you would not support them for the nomination under any circumstances? (RANDOM ORDER)

Would consider / Would not consider / Currently supporting / No opinion

Michele Bachmann: 34% / 60% / 3% / 2%
Newt Gingrich: 43% / 40% / 16% / 1%
Ron Paul: 43% / 40% / 17% / *
Rick Perry: 36% / 59% / 2% / 3%
Mitt Romney: 39% / 17% / 44% / *

4. Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide whom to vote for – where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you, or the leadership skills and vision you think the candidates would have as president?

Stance on issues 37%
Leadership skills and vision 52%
Both (vol.) 9%
Neither (vol.) *
No opinion 1%

5. Overall, which Republican candidate do you think best represents the personal characteristics and qualities that you think a President should have?

Romney 46%
Paul 16%
Gingrich 14%
Huntsman 9%
Santorum 4%
Bachmann 3%
Perry 2%
Someone else (vol.) 1%
None/ No one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 2%

6. Which Republican candidate is most likely to agree with you on the issues that matter most to you?

Romney 37%
Paul 21%
Gingrich 16%
Huntsman 10%
Bachmann 4%
Santorum 4%
Perry 3%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) 3%
No opinion 3%

7. Which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election next November?

Romney 63%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 7%
Huntsman 4%
Santorum 2%
Perry 1%
Bachmann *
Someone else (vol.) 1%
None/ No one (vol.) 3%
No opinion 4%

8. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote in the Republican presidential primary — will it be extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important? (RANDOM ORDER)

Extremely / Very / Moderately / Not that important / No opinion

The economy: 47% / 47% / 5% / 1% / *
Foreign affairs and national security: 28% / 54% / 14% / 3% / *
Moral issues such as abortion and gay marriage: 13% / 21% / 31% / 35% / *

9. And, thinking specifically about the economy, which of the following is the most important economic issue facing the country today? (RANDOM ORDER)

The federal budget deficit 49%
Unemployment 31%
Taxes 8%
Mortgages and housing costs 5%
The price of gasoline 3%
The stock market 1%
Other (vol.) 2%
No opinion *

METHODOLOGY


In Iowa, a total of 999 registered Republicans were interviewed by telephone including 452 likely voters on December 21-24 and December 26-27. Sample was drawn from the complete list of registered Republican voters provided by the Iowa Secretary of State and weighted to reflect the statewide totals for all registered Republicans for gender, age, amount of time registered at the current address, region of the state, and population parameters of the respondents’ zip codes. Likely voters were identified based on each respondent’s stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and voting history as provided by the respondent and the Iowa Secretary of State. Only registered Republicans can participate in the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses.

In New Hampshire, a total of 1,508 adults were interviewed by telephone using standard random-digit dialing methods on December 21-24 and December 26-27. All respondents were asked questions concerning their registration status and basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state. 543 likely voters were identified based on each respondent’s stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date, and self-reported voting history. Registered Republicans and registered independents (undeclared) can participate in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.

Read the full results here.