+2012 Election | 88 days ago

A Draw in Michigan Won’t Solve Romney’s Problems

By Michael Scherer

In baseball, a tie goes to the runner. But in presidential primaries, a tie goes against the front runner.

In a matter of hours, America will discover if Mitt Romney can pull out a squeaker in his native state of Michigan. As of this morning, Nate Silver, the whiz-kid of poll-based projections, pegs the state too close to call, with a 55% chance to win and a projected victory margin of just .7%. That suggests that the most likely outcome is one we have long become accustomed to: A near tie. Romney could win by a point or lose by a point. He could split the popular vote, and come out ahead in the delegate count. He could win the popular vote, and split the delegate count. This in American politics in the 21st Century. Decisive victories are elusive.

In the Arena
In the Arena+2012 Election | 88 days ago

Slow Death in Michigan: Why the Drawn-Out GOP Primary Is Nothing Like 2008

By Joe Klein

After a long, long weekend in Michigan watching Romney and Santorum, I have no strong feelings about who is going to win–put a gun to my head and I’ll say Romney–but I do know that this Republican race has become a victorless crime, a mortal snooze. Those few Republicans who are not so dispirited by [...]

+2012 Election | 115 days ago

After Florida Loss, Newt Gingrich Finds Himself at a Crossroads

By Alex Altman
Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

By the time fans began filing into his Election Night soiree in a capacious Orlando ballroom, there were signs Newt Gingrich had yielded to the grim reality awaiting him. Television screens, speeches and placards distributed to supporters broadcast the campaign’s new mantra: 46 STATES TO GO. “It’s not over,” the local Republican Party chairman assured the crowd.

+2012 Election | 115 days ago

Mitt Romney Wins Florida Primary in a Rout

By Adam Sorensen
Joe Raedle / Getty Images

By the end, it had become a matter of margins. Would Mitt Romney defeat Newt Gingrich in Florida’s Republican primary? Or would Romney obliterate his opponent, reestablishing himself as the race’s undisputed frontrunner? It didn’t take long to find out. Even before the polls closed, it was clear Romney had reduced Gingrich to a thin, [...]

+Debates | 123 days ago

What You Missed While Not Watching the NBC GOP Debate in Florida

By Michael Scherer
Emmanuel Dunand / AFP / Getty Images

TV Guide lists a new episode of Fear Factor at 9 p.m. on NBC. It’s called “Leaches & Shaved Heads & Tear Gas, Oh My! Part 1.” And yet, as the hour strikes, the screen shows another patriotic montage, this time from Tampa, Florida, introducing the 18th Republican debate. The NFL plays a 16-game regular season. There are nine circles of hell. God got it done in six days. But democracy is unrelenting.

+2012 Election | 137 days ago

Scenes from New Hampshire on Primary Day

By Alex Altman and Katy Steinmetz
Emmanuel Dunand / AFP / Getty Images

Manchester, N.H. On the morning of the New Hampshire primary, Ronald Reagan walked into Newt Gingrich’s campaign headquarters on a leash. The 3-year-old West Highland terrier strolled in with his owner, Dan Ferrante, a Gingrich volunteer in a U.S. Marines beanie who had just voted for Newt and was eager for news. “How we doing?” [...]

+2012 Election | 137 days ago

New Hampshire Creates Big Expectations, if Little Drama, as GOP Race Wears On

By Alex Altman
Christopher Morris / VII for TIME

In a final, frantic day of campaigning before Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, the six Republican presidential hopefuls sought to calibrate expectations for a race from which Mitt Romney’s healthy lead has sapped much of the late drama.

+Tea Party | 740 days ago

Primary Season Heats Up

By Jay Newton-Small

There are a lot of races this week — perhaps the busiest primary week since the 2008 season. Here’s a story from me about the five top Democratic primaries. Obviously, as I mention, there’s also the Rand Paul/Trey Grayson smackdown in Kentucky on the Republican side which it looks like Paul will likely win in [...]

+Republican Party | 746 days ago

The Next Bob Bennett (Only Blue)?

By Jay Newton-Small

Today is primary day in Nebraska and West Virginia. There’s really only one race worth watching here, but it could be a doozy: West Virginia Rep. Allan Mollohan, a 14-term Democrat, is facing one of the toughest primaries of his career. Mollohan, who is in perennial trouble with the Ethics Committee for his profligate porking, [...]

+Tea Party | 753 days ago

Mitch Endorses

By Jay Newton-Small

In an unusual move, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell today endorsed his long time protege Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson for forced out, er, retiring Jim Bunning’s Senate seat. With two weeks to go before the Bluegrass State’s first contested Senate GOP primary, Grayson is trailing insurgent Tea Party darling Rand Paul, son of [...]