While trapped in the United Kingdom by volcanic ash, I decided to visit one of the dozen crucial swing constituencies to find out what British voters are thinking ahead of next week’s general election. Over the past decade, I’ve canvassed thousands of voters in just about every swing state: I once spent two days in Pennsylvania exurban gas stations looking for voter reaction to gas prices; I’ve canvassed Texas cattle shows and I’m more familiar than I care to be with Florida’s senior centers. British voters, it turns out, are a breed apart.
The British elections are reaching their crescendo with the final debate due to take place this. The first two debates – the first time in British history that candidates have debated on tv — thus far have already had a big impact on the race, propelling third party candidate Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg ahead of Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Clegg is now neck and neck with Conservative Party Leader David Cameron in most polls. Clegg’s danger to Cameron is two-fold: he draws more votes from Cameron than Labour’s Brown and a strong Liberal Democrat showing could lead to a hung Parliament, making Clegg a king maker and more likely to make a deal with Labour the Conservatives.
I chose the town of Guildford, a 38-minute train ride from London, because it’s a seat the Liberal Democrat hope to take from the Conservatives. Presumably, if there’s a Liberal Democrat surge, there’d be evidence of it here. In fact, Guildford was where Clegg unveiled his manifesto (known as a platform in America). Guildford is essentially part of the suburbs of greater London, and is known for its great shopping — lots of malls, though a little more urbanized than the strip variety found in American suburbia: many are within walking distance of the railway station. Its population is mostly white and middle class, although some immigrants are now finding their way onto Guildford’s lanes.
I parked myself at the bus stop in front of the Marks & Spencer (think Target) on the High Street (Main Street). “Excuse me, sir? Ma’am?” And for an hour people would look at my press credentials and rudely either walk away, put a hand to my face (literally, talk to the hand!) or utter “No, thanks,” and scuttle off. I spoke to two people in 65 minutes — in the U.S., even in New York, a city famous for its rudeness, I’d have easily interviewed 20 people in the same period. Folks waiting for the bus told me, “I’m sorry, I don’t have time,” and then would proceed to stand next to me staring blankly into the street for five minutes until the bus came.
But, finally, when people did begin to talk others became curious and would stop as well. Of the 14 people I interviewed in three hours five were voting conservative, six Liberal Democrat and two were undecided. Right now the Conservatives have a small lead in all the daily polls, but to unseat Labour and to avoid a hung Parliament they would need a bigger lead. Unfortunately, Britain doesn’t do my favorite kind of polls: voter enthusiasm. In the U.S. you can always tell which party has momentum by how much enthusiasm voters express about going to the polls. Ahead of the 2008 presidential elections, Democratic enthusiasm was sky high. Ahead of the 2009 gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, Republicans had the momentum. What enthusiasm tells you is how many volunteers are going to go out and canvas and take the time to drive granny to the ballot box.




