Here’s Why Winning The House Is Still a Long Shot For Democrats

The government shutdown isn't the end of the Republican majority

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With Republicans bearing the brunt of public anger over an unpopular government shutdown, Democrats smell blood in the water, and some are positively giddy at their prospects of taking back the House next year. But while Democrats have reason to be optimistic that they can take a bite out of the GOP’s 17-seat majority in 2014, returning the speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi is another matter all together.

Public opinion polls since the shutdown and debt-ceiling standoff ended on Oct. 17 consistently show Americans blaming Republicans most for the Washington dysfunction. A CNN poll Tuesday found that three-quarters of Americans think most Republican members of Congress don’t deserve re-election. In an ABC poll released the same day, only 43 percent said they approve of their own member of Congress, and just 25 percent of registered voters said they’re inclined to re-elect their representative. A day after Congress voted to end the shutdown, the influential Cook Political Report moved its forecasts on 14 congressional races in Democrats’ direction (and one seat in the GOP’s direction).

“You have a theme that has developed where the American public sees the Republican Congress, the Republican House in particular, as being reckless and irresponsible,” Jef Pollock, a Democratic pollster who works on House races, told TIME. “It’s kind of remarkable how bad the Republican brand is right now.”

(MOREMcCain Considering Another Senate Run in 2016)

There’s no doubt the showdown was a PR and fundraising boon for Democrats, whose House campaign arm beat its GOP counterpart in September fundraising by more than $3 million.

But in politics, money and good will isn’t everything. Here are four reasons why, as many party insiders privately acknowledge, House Democrats still face very long odds in 2014.

Long winter (and spring, summer and fall)
There’s a lot of time for Republicans to recover in the court of public opinion before the midterm elections.

“It’s October,” said Brock McCleary, a Republican pollster and former deputy political director for the House GOP’s campaign arm. “I think you don’t really start to look at polling in specific districts and give it too much weight until late winter early spring.”

(MOREOn to the Next Crisis: Why Congress Learned Nothing From the Shutdown)

National polls don’t mean much

It may actually be true that three-quarters of Americans think most Republicans shouldn’t be returned to Congress, but individual House races are decided at the local level. It’s long been the case that Americans think all members of Congress stink except their own, and while recent polls show some cracks in that trend, incumbents still have more than a year to do damage control back home. Democrats would need to see their national advantage swell to a margin that’s almost unprecedented for the party holding the White House.

( (MOREUtah Senator Mike Lee: The Man Behind The Shutdown Curtain) )

Electoral math and geography favors Republicans

To win a majority, the Democrats not only need to capture a large number of GOP-leaning swing seats, they also have to defend 10 Democratic-held seats that Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups. Meanwhile, so many of the Republican-held seats are increasingly out of reach for Democrats because of how they were redrawn by GOP-controlled legislatures to favor the party — demographically and politically — after the 2010 elections

(MORENorth Carolina Reverts to Red)

The Obamacare rollout

The problem-plagued health care exchange website may yet get fixed and Republicans tend to overstate their political advantage on this front, but Democrats are still in danger of seeing public perception of a law that remains divisive slide further. That hasn’t happened yet, and won’t have much of an effect in strongly red or blue districts. But in swing districts it could prove a potent weapon, and one Republicans are sure to use for the third election cycle in a row. A CBS News poll released Monday found that just 12 percent think the exchanges are working well. It’s a target-rich environment for Republicans to keep Democrats on the defensive — if they can avoid the distraction of shutdowns and fiscal crises.

“The question is,” McCleary said, “are Republicans going to get out of their own way over the course of the next year?”

MOREObamacare’s Next (Narrow) Supreme Court Test

57 comments
Neosaigo
Neosaigo

The way the current districts are drawn, GOP is going to control the house regardless unless there is some sort of mass public awakening, which is unlikely to happen.


Basically, at the end of the day, majority of votes are going to go to the blue team, but the GOP is going to still have a majority in the house.  I would actually be surprised if it turned out differently.

thats-right
thats-right

wow there are some stupid left wingers posting here.... drinking way to much obama kool aid....

ThomasHall
ThomasHall

Time magazine might actually do a public service by showing how the GOP managed to gerrymander most of America at a ratio of more than five to one over Democrats as a result of their off-year win that took not just the House but gave them control over the states where they immediately went to work abusing their power in office through gerrymandering state districts that produced the GOP House win, attacking unions, imposing their regressive social issue, anti-abortion rights, anti-gay positions, anti-affirmative action, de-funding of public K-12 schools and colleges, lax and expanded gun laws, tax cuts for the affluent and corporations with increased sales taxes on the poor, anti-environment rollbacks, etc.

The GOP and their baggy spawn won in 2010 because the GOP took advantage of their GOP-domineering SCOTUS' Citizens United corruption of democracy that allowed unlimited, often anonymous, campaign funding by the rich that kept the baggies going and literally bought elections. Throw in their elections-rigging gerrymandering and ongoing, nationwide voter suppression efforts and the GOP recaptured the House with just 41% of the electorate actually voting.

Missing in civic action in 2010 among Democrats were the young voters and minorities, particularly blacks, and white men.

To beat the GOP in 2014 even with public anger and disgust at their political terrorism, anarchy, and extortionist tactics that have consistently  hurt America, Democrats will have to produce the voters that generally only show up during presidential election years. That the GOP have managed to stay in power after their all-time record of 430+ blocked votes, blocked appointments, and unprecedented 60-vote super majority filibusters is pretty sad and amazing. By now, even the dullest, most bigoted, white working class Americans should realize that the GOP has historically NEVER represented them and have caused most of the problems that America and working class Americans face today--the crippling National Debt, the bank-deregulated, greedy Wall St. bankster fraud, the incoming, unpaid GOP-created bills, and 20+ years of combined wars based upon lies, incompetence, and war-profiteering greed with lifetimes of incoming war bills and costly VA healthcare projected to cost $6 trillion.

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

Luckily you can almost guarantee the GOP will do something even crazier and more offensive next year, thus ensuring their idiocy stays fresh in the minds of independent voters.

rosestar77
rosestar77

I'll call your Obamacare roll out and raise you a tea party primary bloodbath.

drudown
drudown

Sure, right. 

Keep up the "press" trying to "convince" the People that "their fate is sealed" with the party that has arguably set out to bankrupt the State.

Spare us the conclusory language and proffer some reason and analysis as to how, pray tell, any GOP voter would or could say the US is "weaker" or "worse off" under the Obama Administration?

Since President Obama has been in office, his agendas have led to (1) a stronger US dollar; (2) a lower deficit; (3) extricating ourselves from fiscally imprudent GOP occupations abroad; (4) lower Health Care premiums via Obamacare's competitive pricing component and (5) saving the auto industry.

What, do you really think financial institutions and American industries are actually akin to organic things that "should be allowed to die"...like the GOP's "outsourced" jobs never transmuted into new ones at home? Should the voters listen to the GOP puppets in Congress with the audacity to assert "a default is not really a default"? Kind of like "looking for WMDs that aren't really there" justifies a $4 trillion+ war over nothing?

As such, perhaps you'd like to humor us with specifics as to how the GOP "lock-step" agendas of (1) deregulating markets; (2) starving the State of revenue; and (3) instituting wars based on false pretenses served the People in better, more fiscally prudent ways? Last time I checked, the GOP pundits and PR brigade love to cite the "numbers" or "cost" of the Wall St bailouts with ZERO ownership that "deregulation" of credit-default swaps was arguably the root cause.

Moreover, why omit the fact the the Bush Tax Cuts did NOT lead to a stronger US Economy? "Trickle Down" Economics is a farce. Massive borrowing just leads to (1) a WEAKER US dollar and (2) budgetary scare tactics.

As such, I guess then VP Cheney was LYING when he said "deficits don't matter"...kind of like when Wolfowitz LIED that "the oil revenues alone will pay for the Iraq war."

As for our "way of life" being under attack, let's not forget it was the last GOP put the warrantless "let's-spy-on-law-abiding-Americans [and French, Brazilians, Mexicans, et al.]" NSA program and secret torture programs in place. Yes or no?

(cricket, cricket)

"It is a strange desire to seek power and lose liberty." - Francis Bacon

What ominous foreshadowing of the "let's-scare-the-People" GOP.

MementoMori
MementoMori

"because of how they were redrawn by GOP-controlled legislatures to favor the party — demographically and politically — after the 2010 elections"

The word you're looking for is "gerrymandering". Gerrymandering is a defensive action. You cannot grow your base is you have to redraw the districts to keep what seats you have. Meanwhile, long term demographics and generational changes continue to eat away at those 'safe' districts.

The question isn't "Do the Dems take the House in 2014?" It's "When do the Dems take the House?" Because if the current GOP continues to maintain it's course, it's only a matter of time.

NoneofyourBizniz
NoneofyourBizniz

If the Republicans still have a majority after the midterms, that demonstrates that our democracy is an illusion.  I guarantee the majority of voting Americans won't invite back the Teabag Taliban.  So if Bonehead, Cruz, and that group is still in place to obstruct America, you give me a better explanation.  

PaulDirks
PaulDirks

Mark my words. By November 2014, Obamacare is going to be something people brag about instead of running away from. 


ThomasHall
ThomasHall

The Republicans are more concerned about challenges from the baggies during primaries than facing Democrats in a general election. White trash like Cruz and Lee were elected in one of many GOP election-rigging gerrymandered GOP-domineering districts nationwide which is why they readily defy their establishment GOP leaders.

Recall the GOP baggy spawn were elected in an off-year 2010 when only 41% of eligible voters turned out particularly Democratic black voters and college students and funded thanks to the GOP-domineering SCOTUS' Citizens United corruption of democracy that allows unlimited, usually anonymous, campaign funding that can literally buy elections thanks to the rich, rich corporations, and rich special interest. Without the massive outside funding the baggy political terrorists and anarchists would have faded away. They are also aided by the GOP's nationwide voter suppression effort also aided by the GOP SCOTUS recent rollback of the Voting Rights Act that red states were quick to exploit in Texas, NC, and elsewhere with a whole host of voter suppression tactics not simply voter IDs. In NC, their voter suppression efforts including cutting early voting, etc. is 52-pages long.

If the Democrats can muster financial support to help counter the vast GOP political action machine and energize voters that do not normally vote in off elections like college students, the elderly, unmarried women, and minorities, particularly blacks and Hispanics that they may well recapture the House since even now,  despite losing the House, Democrats won more actual popular votes, by 1.7 million in 2012. Were it not for the corruption of gerrymandering they would already have retaken the House.

What amazes me is that working class Americans are still conned, manipulated and exploited and still blindly support the GOP which has historically NEVER represented the working class.

Notice how suddenly job and economic growth were stymied after the GOP retook the House and imposed their obstructionism costing millions of jobs because of their all-time record of 430+ blocked bills and cost America one percent or more of economic growth. The GOP always put partisan politics ahead of the country, nothing patriotic about that.

jmanpc
jmanpc

I plan on voting just as I did in '12. Check the box opposite the incumbent. I don't care if it has a D out R next to it. Kick all the clowns out.

robinsonbobby217
robinsonbobby217

Gerrymandering.  I live in Louisiana and most people here still don't like Democrats despite the woes of Republicans.  

Galen
Galen

'they over state', all the conservatives have are spin and lies!! thats it, no plan, just an extreme ideology... ie, cannot govern!!

ParthaNeogy
ParthaNeogy

I wish you had written a bit more about "National Polls Don't Mean Much."  Nate Silver wrote some time ago that gerrymandering isn't as big a factor as people are led to believe.  A recent article (WaPo, I think) suggested that what is happening in Congressional districts is that they are becoming more homogeneous in party preference.  But while there are a number of districts that prefer Democrats by a lot, there are more districts that prefer Republicans by  a somewhat smaller but still non-assailable margins.  The net result is that Republicans win more districts even when the aggregate national poll gives Democrats an advantage.  It would be nice to have TIME's assessment of that issue.

tommyudo
tommyudo

"A CBS News poll released Monday found that just 12 percent think the exchanges are working well. It’s a target-rich environment for Republicans to keep Democrats on the defensive "


What the writer conveniently left out is that the GOP has absolutely no viable alternative to the ACA, other than tort reform and buying insurance across state lines. These are bandaids that still keep this bloated, for profit, money grubbing system afloat.

S_Deemer
S_Deemer

For the rest of this decade, gerrymandering of Congressional districts makes a Democratic takeover all but impossible, although choosing looney toons candidates in "safe" Republican districts may be too much for some voters to take. The Senate is much more representative, for now, since Senators serve much larger and broader constituencies.

bluedog1
bluedog1

@ThomasHall   You failed to mention the 9.7 billion loss to the U.S. taxpayer from the Obama/Bush bail out of GM, the Solyndra failure, the healthcare roll out failure, the NSA, the DOJ spying on reporters, the IRS targeting of Tea-Party affiliated groups, "you can keep your health care plan" promise , and 4 American lives lost in Benghazi.  Yeah, let's elect another corrupt Democrat.  

StealYoRedBull
StealYoRedBull

@drudown where to begin...

ok 1)  the value of the dollar is still less now than it was in 2009 after the recession according to TIME. 

2) "a lower deficit" oh please. cheering about a $750B deficit is like a team losing by 100 points in one game and then by 75 points the next game and saying 'see our loss margin has gotten smaller! we only lost by 75 this time!' never mind the fact that up until now the deficit has been $1.1-1.3T. not to mention the debt has still gone up by almost 7 trillion under Obama (CBO)

3) i will give you the foreign policy because i don't really support military intervention of any kind, but let's not forget  the unconstitutional military intervention in Libya, and the fact that Obama initially sent 34,000 more troops into afghanistan, and lest we forget the whole Syria episode where he was basically shamed into going to congress for authorization.

4) Lower health care premiums in Obamacare? let's just take Arizona, cause that's where i live, premiums for an adult aged 27 will go up 156.7%, and for an adult aged 50, up 41.7% and for a family of four, up 11.6% (heritage). that study uses census data and numbers from the HHS. for people buying insurance through the marketplace, costs will up by 99% for men and 62% for women (manhattan). and from 2009-2012 premiums have gone up $2,370 for the average family. (abcnews)

5) "saving the auto industry" is just hyperbole. the reality is GM still filed for bankruptcy after all. In august there was still 21B outstanding from the bailout money. meanwhile Ford, who didn't take a bailout ended up posting a 1B profit that year and saw an increase in stock by 29 cents a share. clearly success was possible w/o bailout.

As for the Bush era... i will not defend his dismal record. massive expansion of the federal government in education, and the largest entitlement expansion since the great society..shameful. unnecessary wars based on a rugged wilsonian (a democrat btw) foreign policy, and yes i will agree, cutting taxes during a war is a bad idea and definitely caused more problems. shall we go on? a $700B+ bailout for wall street propping up the losers. oh yea and let's not forget the sheer disregard of our civil liberties, ie. the "patriot" act, which was anything but patriotic. 

even conservatives have to admit, Bush was pretty damn bad.

RichardBlackmore
RichardBlackmore

@drudown Your argument would better be made to the voters in the individual districts than to the journalists. I live in Arizona and to be honest being well informed and using critical thinking skills isn't the strong point of most voters in this state. That is why the GOP will likely win. And I am not referring only to GOP voters, I mean most of the voters, they treat politics like sports and become cheerleaders (IMO).

SusanGate
SusanGate

@MementoMori too bad Pelosi shoved Obamacare down our throats.. she presided over the biggest Dem loss in history, and previously gerrymandered districts in favor of the Dems, turned red.... remember , she did it all for the cause! Too bad it was in a census year and Repubs could redraw the distrcits Dems had previously gerrymandered... lol.

bluedog1
bluedog1

@NoneofyourBizniz Teabag Taliban?  You're actually calling Americans who do not share your  ideology the Taliban?  You sir are an example of how hate is spread in this country.  You are an embarrassment.

gdbutcher
gdbutcher

Cruz is a senator and not up for reelection.

tommyudo
tommyudo

@PaulDirks 


I would tend to agree, but since I'm not a betting man, i won't take a bet on that. Obamacare actually shouldn't be something to brag about. It was a compromise that still has a good deal of dough going to the private insurance industry.

Better that that industry be decimated and cast to the winds, or stay in business as paper pushers for a single payer plan.

bluedog1
bluedog1

@ThomasHall Notice how you spew nothing but hate.... such a vile mouth you have.

PerryWhite1
PerryWhite1

@ThomasHall I'm afraid I didn't read your post past "White trash like Cruz and Lee were elected in one of many GOP election-rigging gerrymandered GOP-domineering districts nationwide which is why they readily defy their establishment GOP leaders."

Cruz and Lee are both senators. They don't have districts. They are elected state-wide.

If you can't get that perfunctory fact right, then I can't put much stock in what you have to say.

drudown
drudown

@ThomasHall 

The GOP can get as many "puff pieces" as they wish into the Fairness Act-less Media, but reasonable people do not make the same mistake twice. Voters can see with their own eyes that "putting partisan politics ahead of the country" now means unravelling the New Deal and weakening the Military via a "no new taxes, ever" GOP religion. 

Moreover, the GOP's purported "Libertarian" wing is adamantly opposed to ANY government intervention to, say, bring back blue collar jobs...as the GOP concurrently refuses to even renew the SNAP/Food Stamps program for the very displaced American workers trying to get back on their feet.

The GOP is going to lose the House for the simple reason the "shut down" demonstrated they don't want America to thrive. They simply lie at every imaginable turn trying to defend the indefensible. What, they couldn't follow the express language of Article I, Section 8 and just raise taxes to avoid the harmful Sequester cuts and/or pre-meditated "shut down"? The voters are not going to forget anything- particularly where the GOP's true loyalty lies.

"Thy love afar is spite at home." - Emerson

tom.litton
tom.litton

@jmanpc If you do that, you will almost certainly trade 1 clown for another.

Vote 3rd party instead. They are all against the forces that create the mess that is the federal government.

jmac
jmac

@jmanpc "Kick the clowns out".   That's how Utah lost a conservative Senator and got Mike Lee.

Not a good strategy.   

TyPollard
TyPollard

@jmanpc 

laziness is no substitute for good citizenship.

Pay attention, do research and vote for the best option.

It's the only way it works.

ThomasHall
ThomasHall

@robinsonbobby217 Working class folks in La, do not like Democrats because they are racist and hate the notion that somebody they don't like like black folks might be helped by a Democratically crafted program like most of the employment benefits we take for granted, the social safety net of Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, food stamps, Headstart, etc.

What can one say about working class GOPeons who blindly support the GOP that have NEVER represented them. Too many people in La. depend on the polluting oil and chemical companies that is poisoning their state and its poorest people. Notice like Texas La. has a high percentage of poor and those without heath insurance but under Republican dominance have opted not to allow their poorest to sign up for Medicaid or to set up more efficient state healthcare insurance exchanges. Under Jindal the affluent have done well will lowered property taxes while sales taxes effecting the poor have gone up. By the way, Republicans were the original carpetbaggers that exploited the South after the Civil War. La. was part of the Solid South of Huey Long and Democrats before the Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act and Fair Housing Act were passed under LBJ then all the Southern racists have become solidly Republicans since.

Think the GOP would have pressured BP to pay all those billions cleaning up the Gulf? Think God is not watching?

tommyudo
tommyudo

@robinsonbobby217 

I think that what you meant was to put the word "white" before "people." LBJ was wrong when he said by signing the Civil Rights Act  that the South would be lost for the Dems for a generation. It's been much longer than that. Race runs deep in them there parts.

anon76
anon76

@ParthaNeogy 

You can rest relatively assured that whatever Time could put up, Silver has already explained both in greater detail and with greater clarity, not to mention with considerably less CW crap.

If I recall the article correctly, he stated that gerrymandering was a problem for the Dems, but the larger problem was self-selection of place to live, leading to more homogenized districts even without the gerrymandering.  This all makes it easier for the Republicans to win, but by no means makes it assured.  I think I counted something like 50+ districts in which the Republican won with 57% or less of the popular vote in 2012.  If the Republicans continue to turn off swing voters, then their gerrymander/geographical advantage will be swamped out by the fact that their brand has become so toxic to the independents.

drudown
drudown

@tommyudo 

Right, sure...."tort reform" is the answer by limiting the damages for victims caused by tortfeasors. Despite the FACT it does NOT lower premiums. It just results in less people having ACTUAL medical costs/cost of care being unrecoverable. That's a solution? 

(sigh.)

Maybe watch the documentary "Hot Coffee" or "Gas land" and hold the same GOP "free market"/tort reform agenda face to face.


barneydidit
barneydidit

@tommyudo And buying insurance across state lines is actually part of Obamacare, but Conservatives keep touting it as something that needs to be done...even though it already is. 

anon76
anon76

@S_Deemer 

Not exactly true.  The gerrymandering (and more importantly the self-selective geographical homogenization of the electorate) creates a much more difficult playing field for the Dems, but the R's seem to be intent on driving their own brand into the ground.  They are historic lows, and, outside of a few of the more moderate members, seem to be betting on a policy of doubling down.  There are definitely enough close districts on the map that the Republicans will lose the house if they continue on their current trajectory.  For all the damage that gerrymandering has done, the map is not all that different from the one which gave Dems a 69 seat majority in 2008.

ThomasHall
ThomasHall

@bluedog1 @ThomasHall bluegoggy--Your kneejerk GOPeon response shows lack of knowledge. First it was the deregulated rich banksters that took down the economy and Wall St. costing $15 trillion in lost household wealth, 4+ million homes, 9+ million underwater, 9 million jobs on top of the five millions shipped overseas or to Mexico under Bush -Cheney along with $400 billion in uncollected taxes from GOP-enabled thousands of corporations. The bailouts for TARP and the auto industry that started under Bush actually worked and the auto industry has been one of the big comeback stories with 350,000+ jobs created. 

Bush-Cheney wasted one billion on a failed NSA computer system, wasted $1 TRILLION in homeland security pork and expansion with nearly one million top-secret government and civilian contractors, and 3,200 agencies, the creation of the bloated dysfunctional Homeland Security Agency, that gave us the Patriot Act and the NSA system that has been spying on the German chancellor since 2002, they also gave us illegal torture, secret prisons in 50 countries, illegally farmed out torture to other countries, actual domestic spying and warrantless wiretaps, there is no IRS "scandal" so stop lying, four deaths in Benghazi is small during the overthrow of murderous terrorist dictator Ghaddafi--compared with the hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded US-Coalition soldiers in two wars based upon lies, incompetence and greed with hundreds of billions wasted on failed nation-building projects and projected to cost $6 trillion as the lifetimes of war bills come in. Want waste? How about the three aircraft carriers named after GOP presidents--Ford, Reagan, GHW Bush slated to be $5 billion each with the USS Ford already at $14 billion. How about the $3 billion wasted on the NASA pork Bush "man in-the-moondoogle" or the Boeing $3 billion "virtual border fence."

Notice that the GOP who have created the bulk of our National Debt, which was less than $800 billion through Carter, only become born-again deficit hawks when out of the White House? What can one say about working class GOPeon bigots who blindly still support the GOP which has historically NEVER represent them while they trash the poor but defend and suck-up to the rich. Pretty pathetic. God knows all about it.

drudown
drudown

@RichardBlackmore @drudown 

People in the (once mighty) Media still have thinking skills and more power to investigate corruption and disprove common, proffered misconceptions and even outright lies (see, e.g., the outspoken, anti-ACA "ordinary citizens" that have wholly fabricated their self-perceived plight on Fox News).

And I disagree that voters in AZ are not going to turn on the GOP. Just google the McCain footage where he is trying to "champion" the patently Unconstitutional immigration "reform" because "these people mow our lawns and help raise our children."

So much for the Equal Protection Clause that precludes favorable treatment based on race/ethnicity by calling it something other than what it obviously is: unlawful "amnesty". 

Notably, the GOP is trying to place every single "flashpoint" issue in the (once mighty) Media because it wants to divert attention from its LEGAL OBLIGATION to produce a commercially reasonable Budget for the President to sign into law. 

What, the People's Due Process rights don't merit a Budget in advance of December? 

(sigh.)

It is just more Foreign money corruption. They WANT a "shut down" and "weak federal government" and they use super-PACs to bribe our leaders into complacency. The fact super-PACs were drafted to be "legal" does NOT "undo" the express obligations of Congress under Article I, Section 8. 

Period.

"A world of vested interests is not a world which welcomes the disruptive force of candor." - Agnes Repplier

bluedog1
bluedog1

@SusanGate @MementoMori Pelosi... another 1%'er pandering to the useful idiots so she can continue to live off of the tax-payer. What a phony.  Remember when she was speaker and demanded use of the corporate jet for herself, family and friends?  Now they are saying "Gee, people are too stupid to know what kind of health insurance they need, so we'll decide for them, even if they don't need it, they're going to pay for it."  This, from the lips of the same person who said "we have to pass the bill to see what's in it."   What an idiot.

drudown
drudown

@tommyudo @PaulDirks 

I love how the posters claiming they want a "single payer plan" concurrently desire the ACA's abolition. 

Sure, you are for the People and improving access to Health Care. Right.

drudown
drudown

@tom.litton @jmanpc 

Your Tea Party is a corrupt lot of Foreign-controlled Traitors.

They "created" the "shut down" and, what, want to blame the government for their willful refusal to follow the Constitution, i.e., as they profess allegiance to it? What a farce.

shepherdwong
shepherdwong

@tommyudo @robinsonbobby217"...by signing the Civil Rights Act  that the South would be lost for the Dems for a generation..."

Not just the South. Most of the mid-west and west as well. But it is at least as much a rural vs. urban phenomenon as it is about race. It seems that living in or near a city gives one a different attitude about the importance of government, and somewhat inoculating against "conservative" anti-government propaganda.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gastner_map_purple_byarea_bycounty.png

rosestar77
rosestar77

@barneydidit @tommyudo

I am not so sure about the buying of insurance across state lines being a part of the ACA. It is my understanding that the insurance plans are still designed (And actuarially priced) on a state by state basis. This is the the strategy behind the primary means of ACA obstruction, the refusal to expand Medicaid. By not expanding Medicaid, the total insurance pool of those republican controlled states will be less and the cost for insurance in those states will not be able to take advantage of the increased risk sharing that a larger insured population would foster. By blocking Medicaid expansion the republicans are making sure that red states do not benefit as much as they could under the ACA. Thus, keeping red states red.  

I think that the proposal that the Federal government mandate the destruction of state insurance control is a sign of the total hypocrisy of conservative thought. Local control is a mantra of conservative ideology, especially when it comes to education. However, when it comes to same sex marriage, pot legalization or when it effects Wall Street controlled for profit health insurance companies then we can't have that. Can you say "Cognitive dissonance"?  

Galen
Galen

@barneydidit @tommyudo 

because they haven't realized, their front side is their backside. they don't know their azzes from there heads.

drudown
drudown

@bluedog1 @drudown

You dodge the threshold issue in your GOP talking points: the Congress- not the President- has PLENARY power to promulgate a Budget and shall RAISE revenue under Article I, Section 8. What "part" of that has to do with our President and how can you blame the President for Congress not following the law?

Show me the law.

Let me guess. You are "missing" any legal authority to allow a "shut down" when less onerous means were available?

Uh, presumably the same "missing" part that purportedly allows GOP members of Congress from "refusing" to do their prescribed duties under Article I, Section 8 and raise taxes to provide for the Common Defense and General Welfare.

"Like Saddam's imaginary WMDs…they might be in Atlantis." 

In this regard, for the GOP to invoke the absolute necessity of a "strict construction" of the Constitution in a wide array of contexts, it is utterly disingenuous for the Speaker and GOP brethren to "refuse" to follow Article I, Section 8's EXPRESS LANGUAGE on account of, what, some "ideological" reason and/or- arguably worse still- to "teach the government a lesson via arbitrary cuts" as if the House is some extension of the "Decider" on behalf of the People. Get real. The Congress’ JOB is to promulgate a Budget on an ANNUAL basis, just as the Senate has to perform its Constitutionally prescribed "Advice and Consent" function. Instead, the GOP Congress seems more intent on thwarting the very function of Government and system of precedent that preceded them. 

The very notion that "shutting down" the government- that is, leading to $24 billion in direct losses and incalculable indirect losses- was in any way shape or form "good"- much less "lawful"- is just asinine given that Article I, Section 8's plain language REQUIRES Congress to RAISE REVENUE for the Common Defense and People's General Welfare.

bluedog1
bluedog1

@drudown @drudown No, sorry, it was the leaderless leader, Mr. "No Experience", "you can keep your health care plan" liar-in-chief, who is responsible for his own unwillingness to compromise. Too bad he doesn't have the necassary skills to do what is right for all people. Just another partisan hack. After he took office he touted that "the republicans could go to the back of the bus" meaning, their cooperation wasn't needed. He has been divisive, in every way, since he was elected. Funny how he never knows anything about major events... keeping himself detached from criticism. Kinda like his "present" voting record during his short tenure in the Senate. He should just stick to golfing...

shepherdwong
shepherdwong

@La_Randy @NoneofyourBizniz "Not hereditary, it is a learned behavior."

That's exactly right. And it also has quite a bit to do with peer pressure. Otherwise, it wouldn't have a geographic nature.