Santorum Eyes Repeat Run in 2016

The conservative culture warrior sees a populist path to appeal to downscale voters whom Romney "marginalized."

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Justin Hayworth / AP

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum speaks during the family leadership summit in Ames, Iowa Saturday Aug. 10, 2013.

With a chocolate malted in hand and permanent smile on his face, Rick Santorum traversed the massive Iowa State Fair on Friday afternoon, stopping repeatedly to shake hands with folks who recognized him.

For the former Pennsylvania Senator, it was all part of a whirlwind, three-day return to the state that shocked the political world 19 months ago by crowning him victor of the Iowa caucuses over Mitt Romney. Since dropping out of the presidential race in April of last year, Santorum has been keeping his name in the news. He founded a political group, Patriot Voices, to keep his supporters energized, and he’s taken on a role as CEO of a Christian film studio.

But another bid for the White House in 2016 has never been far from his mind.

“I’m not doing anything inconsistent with running — how’s that,” he said with a grin as he walked through the fairgrounds when asked if he’s exploring another run. “It’s certainly something we’re going to give a lot of thought to. You really can’t give thought to it and be serious about it unless you put yourself in a position where you have options. And you can’t give yourself options unless you’re out there and engaged in the process.”

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Already, Santorum is trying to carve out a distinct ideological space for his candidacy, striking a populist tone on economic issues to reach downscale voters he says Mitt Romney “marginalized,” while encouraging the GOP to double down on social issues.

“First and foremost we need to reject this idea that ‘Well, if we just build the economy, all boats will rise and everybody will be fine,’” he said Saturday at a gathering of evangelical conservatives in Ames. “I don’t know about you, but most people I know have holes in their boats. And when that tide rises, sometimes they sink.” Santorum sees an opening for a repeat of his message of economic populism and compassionate conservatism, especially after Romney’s “47%” slip.

Many saw 2012 as something of a fluke for Santorum, who for most of 2011 was an also-ran culture warrior, relegated to the fringe of debate stages and the occasional cable-news hit. But he was all over Iowa in the run-up to the caucuses, visiting all 99 counties in the Ram 1500 pickup known as the Chuck Truck, driven and owned by friend and activist Chuck Laudner.

He spoke at events big or small — most often smaller than 15 people — as flavor-of-the-month, Anybody-But-Mitt candidates like Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain all soared and fell back to earth.

He and Chuck just kept driving.

In the final Des Moines Register poll conducted days before the caucus, Santorum was in third place, 9 points behind Romney. Two weeks after Romney was said to have won the caucuses by a narrow eight votes, Santorum was crowned the victor after a re-count put him 34 votes up. But denied the traditional bump afforded to the victor, Santorum’s campaign faltered until after the Florida primary, when he was the only non-Romney candidate left with a prayer.

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But if Santorum decides to run again, he’ll face a decidedly more potent Republican field — not the comparative lightweights who ran against Romney — that could include former Florida governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio, to name just a few.

In 2012 he became the last Romney rival standing essentially by default. Yes, he spent more time in Iowa than anyone, but most conservatives there and elsewhere settled on his candidacy only after all the others imploded. And the state that knew him best isn’t rushing to grant him victory just yet. A July poll looking at 2016 caucus prospects by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Santorum in sixth place, with only 6% of the Republican vote.

“2012 was the perfect storm for him,” says former Romney Iowa consultant David Kochel. “A front runner who was (wrongly) mistrusted by the base, and a never ending clown car of weak alternatives. Rick Santorum ended up as Captain of the Clown Car.”

But Santorum, who was the ultimate beneficiary of a coalition of evangelical Iowans, doesn’t see it that way.

“Every race I’ve ever been involved in I wasn’t supposed to win,” he said. “We worked for it. So the idea that I’m going to sit here and make a calculus of ‘Well, can I win?’ You make the calculus of ‘Is this the right thing for me to be doing for the country and my family, and is it going to be a good thing?’”

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Santorum conceded that who runs — and how they run — may affect his decision whether to give Iowa another try.

“There will obviously be other people in the race, some of whom I have a tremendous amount of respect for,” he said. “I know that they’re looking at it, and it may alter my calculations. So all of that is what we’ll consider.”

Traversing the state fair, he was something of a happy warrior, in his words, meeting new friends and welcoming old. He’s still surprised how many people know who he is, recognition he didn’t enjoy even when he won the caucuses. He drove more than 400 miles on this trip, attending fundraisers and meeting with activists from across the state. Doing everything a maybe presidential candidate should do in the Hawkeye State.

Santorum sees a “different race” from 2012 if he runs next time, not having to rely on his daughter and a friend to get him qualified on ballots across the country, for instance.

“I didn’t have the money,” he said. “That’s just the nature of the beast four years ago the last time around. Obviously, we’re going to be in a little better shape. We’re organized already just from having campaigned in a lot of states, and a lot of folks are anxious to help us. Just that alone puts us light-years ahead of where we were. And having raised not much, but $20 million, it gives you a little bit of a better base, and we’ll see. I think it will be a different race if we decide to go there.”