In the Arena

I Don’t Know

Over the past week, everyone's been asking me who's going to win. Beats me. I really don't know.

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Jacquelyn Martin / AP

After canceling his appearance at a morning campaign rally in Orlando, Fla., President Barack Obama walks toward the White House in a driving rain after returning to Washington to monitor preparations for early response to Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 29, 2012.

We’re a week away from the election. I’m in the doldrums, stuck in a Washington hotel while a storm called “Sandy” pummels Bruce Springsteen’s beloved Jersey Shore. I tried to spend a day out with the President and Bill Clinton, but my shirt got caught. We went to Florida last night and the storm kept us spinning right back to DC this morning. 

Over the past week, everyone’s been asking me who’s going to win. Beats me. I really don’t know. The polls seem stalled, hilariously inconclusive. The race  is frozen, more or less, for the next few days–except for the advertising. It remains to be seen whether, in the absence of any other news except the storm, Mitt Romney’s wildly misleading new auto ad will prove to be a problem for him in Ohio and other midwestern states, where people credit the President with having saved their jobs more than they discredit Romney for having opposed Obama’s plan. Chrysler has vehemently refuted Romney’s inference that it plans to move Jeep production to China; it’s actually adding auto production jobs here. In a year where Romney’s campaign has unsheathed a steady stream of false claims, flips and flops, and still managed to find itself in a position where it could win the election, you have to wonder if even an ad this brazen will backfire. (You also have to wonder why the Obama campaign chose not to highlight Romney’s flips and flops. Presidential campaigns are all about character, I believe; Romney’s abdication of any pretense to constancy should have been the  major character issue.)

The Romney ad has a whiff of desperation to it, an indication–perhaps–that the Republican is finding Ohio a difficult nut to crack. But why was the President scheduled to travel to Wisconsin tomorrow (cancelled by the storm) and why is he putting major ad money back into Pennsylvania? I tend not to trust anything that comes out of presidential campaigns at this point in the process, especially attempts by said campaigns to “analyze” how things are going. Both sides seem jelly-legged at this point.

So we’re in the quiet eye of the election. And I promise you, this thing can spin either way when we emerge. There will be a jobs report this Friday. There may be other surprises. But anyone who claims to know who is going to win is blowing smoke.

755 comments
tpaine
tpaine

Precisely.  Who knew 6,000,000 white voters were not going to vote.  Who knew the first President EVER could LOSE 4,000,000 votes and STILL win.   Sadly, as history has now proven, it was not a GOOD thing for any American regardless of skin color.

"When God wishes to punish a nation, He deprives its leaders of wisdom."  And so it is.

KatySewell
KatySewell

During the election, I remember talking with my lawyer about who we thought could win. After debating with him for a day or two, we finally came to the conclusion that we didn't know who would actually win the election. Both candidates did very well. http://www.andrewbthieleandco.com.au

AnthonyDelPellegrino
AnthonyDelPellegrino

As usual Klein's political bigotry prevent him from recognizing the fact that President Obama has been the one spending this entire campaign trying to avoid any and all the facts about his own record, denying the truth and distracting from the issues.  And why does Obama do this and why does Klein ignore this?  Because both the President and the liberal esxtablishment thta Klein represents are desperate.  As ususal, Klein takes a typically hypcritical liberfal approach and dares to call others what he himself is....... a liar.  As for Klein's claim that no one knows who will win....Once again Klein is being an ass.  The truth is that liberals like him refuse to admit the fact that most signs are indicating that President can't win reelection. he only smoke here is coming from the joint Klein is puffing on. Romney will win the Electoral College with at least 301 electoral votes to the President's 237 electoral votes.   Liberal losers like Klein are simply writting crap like this as way to cope with their own panic and the suicidal reaction that they will inevitably experience when their messiah, Barack the Great is defeated...... http://whitehouse12.com/2012/10/31/romney-projected-to-win-the-electoral-college-with-301-votes-to-obamas-237/

Kurlis
Kurlis

I respectfully suggest that Obama partisans should prepare themselves for disappointment.

JanetStockeySwanborn
JanetStockeySwanborn

Think of Hamlet showing his mother a picture of his father and comparing his stepfather to to his father. Obama is Old Hamlet, Romney is Claudius, and America is Gertrude. Only this time it's not too late. Obama's the one.

guinerbob
guinerbob

Romney's ads are "wildly misleading".  Is there no consequence to being caught in a lie anymore?  The mainstream media should step up and do their due diligence and call him out on it.  This is getting too blatant.  Somebody needs to call BS.

Girlbird63
Girlbird63

Joe, I put my faith in Nate Silver. 538 Blog. NYTimes. National polls do not matter. It's the electoral college. And if you divorce yourself from the loud chatter and just look at the numbers: Obama's chances of winning are simply far far greater than Mitt Romney's. Thank God. If someone can get this close to the presidency and not be held accountable for lie after lie after lie--not media spinning, not rhetoric, but demostrable lies....we're in bad trouble. Listen to the numbers. Listen to the facts. Sleep well, and eventually we will wake up to a second term and a country that is so divided, with right wingers so infuriated, that something's gotta give....

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

At what point will people start holding the Republican party accountable for the fact that they have done everything possible to derail the economic recovery? That they harbor politicians that would force women to have kids born of rape and incest? That Romney's policies are nothing more than a return to Bush's stupidity?

tpaine
tpaine

Poor Joe, he can't handle the truth.  Our Incompetent-In-Chief is going to lose Herbert Hoover sized and for, pretty much, the same reasons - "the most Americans EVER in poverty and on food stamps."

Noemie Emery did an excellent piece and the two BIG legislative failures, but its the economy - or lack thereof - that has killed the Democrats this cycle.  Google up her article.  Very good read.

doctorfixit
doctorfixit

Four Americans dead,  Obama watches, abandons them, heads for fundraiser.  

If Klein says he doesn't know, then he knows that Obama is losing.

InezBabington
InezBabington

Alternate titles for this article:  

1.  Anyone who says Romney is winning is wrong.

2.  The main-stream polls were correct until Romney started pulling ahead.

3.  The RCP average is more accurate that Ras or Gallup because it includes all the +4 to +9 Dim samples.

4.  We are trying to kill the Benghazi story but it's not working

5.  We are trying to give Zero all the hurricane photo-ops in the situation room we can, but it's not working.

6.  Ignore the early voting trends reported because it is favorable to Romney

Gulfcoastcommentary
Gulfcoastcommentary

Here are about 5 devastating arguments on why Obama will be defeated:  http://gulfcoastcommentary.blogspot.com/2012/10/its-over-for-obama-romney-will-win.html

I'm reading many comments on online newspaper sites from here to the UK.  The overwhelming number of comments are against Obama.  There appears to be a tsunami of voters rising up against Obama and it's being reflected in the polls.  This latest Benghazi foul-up is also giving people pause, when it's obvious that the administration botched his "3 AM call" (actually was 3 pm ET).  

http://gulfcoastcommentary.blogspot.com/2012/10/obama-received-his-3-am-calland-failed.html

Good luck!

ahandout
ahandout

Barry knew Bill Ayers.  There is a video of Obama at a dinner with Ayers but the LA Times refused to release it. From wikipedia.

The founding members of Chicago School Reform Collaborative announced in 1995 were:[38]William Ayers

The founding Board of Directors of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge as announced in 1995 were: Barack Obama, civil rights attorney at Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland; lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School; member of the board of directors of the Joyce Foundation and the Woods Fund of Chicago; winner, Crain's Chicago Business 40 Under 40 award, 1993; former president of the Harvard Law Review (1990–1991); former executive director of the Developing Communities Project (June 1985–May 1988); current President of the United States[24][40][41][42]

ahandout
ahandout

So many lies from Barry, so little time.

Here's a whopper:

Barack was never an ACORN trainer and never worked for ACORN in any other capacity.Obama Campaign Video

ahandout
ahandout

Lies, let's consult the expert...

Lies During Fourth Year

“The sequester is not something that I’ve proposed. It is something that Congress has proposed.”Politifact.com“Mitt Romney raised nursing home fees eight times.”Politifact.com“Mitt Romney called the Arizona law a model for the nation.”Politifact.com“Planned Parenthood provides mammograms”Spero News“We got back every dime we used to rescue the financial system”cbsnews.comBenghazi violence was caused by an internet video & demonstrationsState Department“Mitt Romney Plans to fire Big Bird”Politifact.com“Under Gov. Romney’s definition … Donald Trump is a small business.”politifact.comBecause of Obamacare, “over the last two years, health carepremiums have gone up — it’s true — but they’ve gone up slower than anytime in the last 50 years.”politifact.com“I think it’s important for us to understand that the Fastand Furious program was a field-initiated program begun under theprevious administration”abcnews.comRomney and Ryan will gut pell grants for low-income college students.Factcheck.orgMy budget will cut the deficit by $4 Trillion over 10 years.Factcheck.org“I am told that Governor Romney’s new running mate, PaulRyan, might be around Iowa the next few days,” he said while in CouncilBluffs, Iowa. “He is one of the leaders of Congress standing in the way.So if you happen to see Congressman Ryan, tell him how important thisfarm bill is to Iowa and our rural communities.”House passed bill on August 2, 2012 (Paul Ryan voted yes)The American automobile industry has come roaring back…So nowI want to say what we did with the auto industry, we can do it inmanufacturing across America. Let’s make sure advanced, high-techmanufacturing jobs take root here, not in China. And that meanssupporting investment here. Governor Romney … invested in companies thatwere called ‘pioneers’ of outsourcing. I don’t want to outsource. Iwant to insource.Forbes- Outsourcer-In-Chief: Obama Of General Motors“You Didn’t Build that”A few examples

http://obamalies.net/list-of-lies

mccarty42
mccarty42

I'll raise my hand and assert that I know the outcome.  My judgement is based on old age and decades of political observations --not too mention the current polls.  Romney wins; the Marxist goes home to soil Chicago again.  You heard it here first.   I'd also assert that 40% of op-ed journalists need to find another vocation lest they be selling apples on the street corner.  Think I'm being outrageous?  Give me a shot at your jobs. 

cjones1
cjones1

The Navy SEALS took out Bin Laden and now many are incensed that their brethren were allowed to die in Benghazi without even an attempt to move air assets to assist them. I understand a facebook site used by some SEALS was shut down.

My guess is that Obama was disconnected and Jarrett made the call....overriding Panetta perhaps.

This administration's cover story and cover-up trumps the Romney ad on moving Chrysler plant overseas. (China or Italy...both are outside the US). Maybe Klein and others in the MSM can ignore the Benghazi failure, but others won't.

By the way, I think Biden has clearly demonstrated that he is not qualified to be the vice-president because of all the screw ups.he has been making...scary!

Kurlis
Kurlis

One wonders why Joe Klein refuses to hold Obama to the same standard as Romney.  I sense the subtle racism of diminished expectations.  But hey, at least Joe feels good about himself.  After all, he's an effective advocate for the American Left.

Mattparker
Mattparker

This is nonsense. The meta polls (which do analytics on all the various polls, analyzing real factual data and tracking poll accuracy over extended periods across many elections), such as Nate Silver's 538, were correctly forecasting an Obama win for months in advance. This was based on the majority of individual polls showing Obama winning the popular vote and electoral college handily.

Only people who refused to monitor legitimate news sources came away surprised at the result of the election.

kirkaiya
kirkaiya

@AnthonyDelPellegrinoYou wrote, "<i>The truth is that liberals like him refuse to admit the fact that most signs are indicating that President can't win reelection". </i>   That's looking pretty amusing in hindsight. So you're one of many self-deluders who convinced yourself that all the major polls were wrong, that the main statistical models by electoral-vote (dot com), Nate Silver, and Princeton University were all wrong... wow.  Dude, welcome back to reality!

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@AnthonyDelPellegrino That's cute you post a fly by night website and think everyone will believe you. And yet it's Romney that just put out the most desperate and deceptive ads to date. Wonder what his internal pollsters know that you don't?

kirkaiya
kirkaiya

@Kurlis So how did that prediction work out?  ;-)

Just teasing a bit!

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@Kurlis I think the only disappointment we will experience is in not taking more Senate and House seats.

kirkaiya
kirkaiya

@tpaine So, Obama lost "Herbert Hoover sized", eh?  LMAO.

Looks like your prognosticating skills are about on par with your grammar...

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@tpaine Actually it seems that it is you that can't handle the truth since you still avoid answering any questions regarding the Republicans in Congress hampering all attempts to jump start the economy and costing the US its stellar credit ratings. The American people have not forgotten that they have placed loyalty to their party ahead of loyalty to the country and will deal with the accordingly.

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@doctorfixit Still going with the Obama watched lie? The one that even Romney and Ryan know enough to avoid.

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@InezBabington The Benghazi story was killed by Romney and Ryan who know there is nothing there they can attack on. And if you think Romney is winning I have some beachside property in Kansas I'd like to sell you.

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@Gulfcoastcommentary All I see is your personal blog, but feel free to provide links to the comments in the UK that you are referring to. Last time I checked people in the UK were calling Romney "Mitt the Twit" after his gaffe filled visit there this summer.

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@ahandout And yet the link you listed clearly says that Bin Laden did not donate. Your lies get more desperate and disgusting every day. Why is that?

Coach63DH
Coach63DH

@ahandout  I met an inebriated Potter Stewart once--that didn't make me a Supreme Court Justice or even a drunk.  

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@ahandout Digging up that old lie? It didn't work for you in 2008, what makes you think it will work now?

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@ahandout Keep digging up the old lies. Are you trying to cover up for the fact that Romney wanted to privatize FEMA?

mantisdragon91
mantisdragon91

@cjones1 Wonder how those Navy SEALS feel about Romney blatant attempt to politicize their friends death and the fact that Darrell Issa committed treason by exposing State Department documents on the world wide web?

tpaine
tpaine

@Mattparker and so we NOW have the most Americans EVER unemployed, in poverty and on welfare.  Good choice America.

tpaine
tpaine

@Mattparker ok, google up the last President that LOST 4,000,000 votes and STILL won??  NEVER happened.  Is Nate Silver STILL polling?  No, because he couldn't imagine 6,000,000 white voters NOT voting either.  Romney's humility cost him the election.  Pure and simple.

It's what Democrats do.  Turn our virtue against us.

ALWAYS been the Party of hate, racism and stealing.  ALWAYS.  Only the skin color has changed.

MikeOverHere
MikeOverHere

@mantisdragon91 @tpaineUh, mantisdragon, you conveniently forget that Obama told Republicansto sit on the side of the road sipping their Slurpees while he and Democrats solve the nation's problems themselves. All by themselves!They didn't want Republicans help. And oh how the left laughed and laughed! To then turn around and accuse Republicans of obstructionist behavior for not offering help the president already said he didn't want is such a blatant lie, and you know it. It's flattering that you pretend to think that it only takes Republicans to tango. But in fact, as the saying goes, it does indeed take two and the president rejected its partner.

MikeOverHere
MikeOverHere

@mantisdragon91 @ahandout Please disregard the Mantisdragon troll. Every lie is the truth and every truth is a lie in this man's Orwellian world. I mean he even calls the Libyan tragedy a lie. Hey, I live in the real world, so when I see the president calling a press conference to say that a video was responsible days after the Libyan government said it had proof it was a prearranged attack, I see a lie. It takes special effort in this day and age to have less credibility than a Middle East government, but welcome to BizarroWorld, where up is down, the lie is the truth and anger is a virtue.

tpaine
tpaine

@Mattparker the truth is the truth.  Obama LOST 4,000,000 votes from his first election and STILL won.  NEVER happened before.  Don't believe me.  Google it up.

Mattparker
Mattparker

Ahhhh, Nate Silver has never done polling; he does analytics on existing polls, determining their accuracy. He is currently relaunching 538 after his contract with the NY Times finished. He is quite public about the relaunch. Also, couple of things: A) the 2012 presidential election had nothing to do with his contract status, and B) actually 538 did predict very accurately the vote totals.

As for your partisan screed, well, we'll assume it's as accurate as your election forecasting.....

kirkaiya
kirkaiya

@Kurlis @kirkaiyaSure, sure.  Except you were wrong - you were implying that Obama would lose, and instead he won by a comfortable margin.  Nice try at going back and changing what you meant, but no, we all know you were completely off base.