Ad War Update: Obama and Romney at Your Kitchen Table

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You know the presidential campaign is getting serious when both candidates stop stabbing each other with sharpened Pinnochio noses long enough to speak directly to you, the voter. “If I could sit down with you in your living room or around the kitchen table,” Obama says in a new direct-to-camera ad, “here’s what I’d say”:

During the last weeks of this campaign there will be debates, speeches and more ads. But if I could sit down with you in your living room or around the kitchen table here’s what I’d say:

When I took office we were losing nearly 800,000 jobs a month and were mired in Iraq. Today I believe that as a nation we are moving forward again. But we have much more to do to get folks back to work and make the middle class secure again.

Now, Governor Romney believes that with even bigger tax cuts for the wealthy and fewer regulations on Wall Street all of us will prosper. In other words he’d double down on the same trickle down policies that led to the crisis in the first place. So what’s my plan?

First, we create a million new manufacturing jobs and help businesses double their exports. Give tax breaks to companies that invest in America, not that ship jobs overseas.

Second, we cut our oil imports in half and produce more American-made energy, oil, clean-coal, natural gas, and new resources like wind, solar and bio-fuels—all while doubling the fuel efficiencies of cars and trucks.

Third, we insure that we maintain the best workforce in the world by preparing 100,000 additional math and science teachers. Training 2 million Americans with the job skills they need at our community colleges. Cutting the growth of tuition in half and expanding student aid so more Americans can afford it.

Fourth, a balanced plan to reduce our deficit by four trillion dollars over the next decade on top of the trillion in spending we’ve already cut, I’d ask the wealthy to pay a little more. And as we end the war in Afghanistan let’s apply half the savings to pay down our debt and use the rest for some nation building right here at home.

It’s time for a new economic patriotism. Rooted in the belief that growing our economy begins with a strong, thriving middle class. Read my plan. Compare it to Governor Romney’s and decide for yourself. Thanks for listening.

This is mostly a distillation of all of Obama’s well-worn points about his first term: a reminder of how bad things were, a dash of Bush blame, some claims of modest gains and the promise of more to come. Romney’s latest is also a direct-to-camera spot, focused on the achingly slow recovery:

Too many Americans are struggling to find work in today’s economy. Too many of those who are working are living paycheck to paycheck, trying to make falling incomes meet rising prices for food and gas. More Americans are living in poverty than when President Obama took office and 15 million more are on food stamps. President Obama and I both care about poor and middle-class families. The difference is my policies will make things better for them. We shouldn’t measure compassion by how many people are on welfare. We should measure compassion by how many people are able to get off welfare and get a good paying job. My plan will create 12 million new jobs over the next four years—helping lift families out of poverty and strengthening the middle class. I’m Mitt Romney and I approve this message because we can’t afford another four years like the last four years.

We’ve addressed the 12 million jobs pledge before–it’s on the conservative end of what economists believe current policies will produce without any change, so it’s not really very bold–but the remarkable thing about this ad is how similar the set up is to Obama’s case in 2008. Compare:

Obama was basically running against Bush four years ago (and still is at times). Romney’s mostly just following the anti-incumbent script, with the addition of a line about “compassion”–his way of explaining his recent candid camera comments about the 47% of Americans who pay no federal income tax. Speaking of which, Obama is also out with this ad today, airing in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia:

Ouch! Back to your regularly scheduled programing.

234 comments
Creeder
Creeder

I wish that some how all of us could see a little more "eye to eye".... It is a bummer that this country is so aggressively split Democrat or Republican rather then just american. Like Mathew I play airsoft guns with http://deadlyhippos.com/ guns and a lot of the time it can disheartening to see such "hate" towards fellow americans, just for a political belief...

Matthew Jackson
Matthew Jackson

People think its a tight race but really its not in my opinion. did yall see the debate last night. i have a few friends that play  airsoft guns with http://airsplat.com/ guns and we always talk about how important it is to have a plan and explain it effectively to the people.

Marie Burns
Marie Burns

Nice job, Mitt.  You're look directly into the camera to give the impression, "I'm talkin' to you," then you call us poor amp; middle-class Americans "THEM": "The difference is my policies will make things better for them." You're going to help THEM? Who's THEM? Why, I'll bet it's "those people" -- the 47 percent nation of moochers. Just can't say, "I'll help YOU," can ya, Mitt. Might give you cooties to get so familiar with millions of real American slackers. But thank anyway for reminding US yet again what you think of US.

The Constant Weader at http://www.RealityChex.com

sacredh
sacredh

I've held back this information long enough. We finished all of the inside decorating for fall/Halloween today. It took us four days. I was going to do the outside lights today but it's been raining here since last night. Maybe tomorrow.

paulejb
paulejb

The Obama regime is wasting no effort to get justice for our murdered ambassador.

"Feds Arrest Producer Of Controversial Anti-Islam Film On Probation Violation Charge"

http://swampland.time.com/2012...

Perpetrators can't hide from Obama's Justice Department unless they belong to the New Black Panther Party.

paulejb
paulejb

MrObvious,

"Simple, just show and prove where I lied."

=============================

Every third , sixth and eighth word.

rokinsteve
rokinsteve

End thoughts #2:  Paulie can see everything in Libya from his front porch.

Pollopa
Pollopa

Since the Mitt message machine has been so far off since he's been the leader in the primaries, he's missed his clearest opportunity to bracket Obama early.

http://business.time.com/2012/...

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/2...

Now just like the rightwing posters on this blog, Mitt throws stuff at the wall to see what just might stick.  The deperation is undoubtedly showing.  The American people are seeing it.  The R donors are the next thing to start drying up.

The polls show that it is most likely Obama will win this, with averages that have been shown reliable in the past.  It may be that Mitt pulls off a victory, but just as likely it may be that Obama wins in the largest landslide in history.

paulejb
paulejb

"Fiasco: 15 days later, FBI still can’t gain access to Benghazi consulate"

http://hotair.com/archives/201...

Let's face it conservatives, the "court eunuchs of the American media" will cover for Obama with their last drop of ink and last minute of air time. Do not expect even a shred of truth from them. 

rokinsteve
rokinsteve

End thoughts #1:  Paulie the Parrot is working extra hard today for stale crackers.  

Benevolent Lawyer
Benevolent Lawyer

 Fox is full of LIARS. To make matters worse, it is a sexist channel that has almost ALL white blonde women. What does that mean? Is it some sort of Aryan Nation Faux News channel???

Benevolent Lawyer
Benevolent Lawyer

I am not sure why there are so many people giddy with joy over the recent polls. Yes, I know the Far Right is defecating on themselves in fear, but the left dancing and rejoicing is MOST premature.  Once again, to all Obama supporters, if early voting has started in your state, GO AND VOTE. If it has not started, please determine now that you will VOTE ON NOVEMBER 6th, no matter what.

To Romney's supporters, I don't care what you do. You could contact Halperin to ask him what Right wingers do when their candidate is an incompetent, rich and entitled drone. Good luck with that.

La_Randy
La_Randy

Uh oh! OT, but it looks like they have found some voter registration fraud in Florida.

Link

paulejb
paulejb

MrObvious lies and the rest of the hive swears to it. I am underwhelmed.

paulejb
paulejb

mantisdragon91,

 "Sounds like about the time the Tea Party terrorists stormed congress."

=====================================

You hive drones are making deranged comments like this every day and you people are flagging my comments?

Mantisdragon and this chump are typical Swampland leftist extremists,

"Obamavoter --Assassinated Libya Ambassador "had it coming"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

sacredh
sacredh

Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?

By NATE SILVER

There’s no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst polling days of the year on Wednesday.It began with a series of polls from The New York Times, CBS News and Quinnipiac University, released early Wednesday morning, which gave President Obama leads of between 9 and 11 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Later in the day, Mr. Romney got polls showing unfavorable numbers for him in Colorado and Iowa.Unlike many recent days, when Mr. Obama’s national polls were slightly less euphoric than his swing state surveys, Wednesday’s national polls seemed to support the notion that Mr. Obama has a clear lead in the race. The Gallup national tracking poll gave Mr. Obama a six-point lead among registered voters, close to his high mark on the year in that survey. The online tracking poll conducted by Ipsos gave him a six-point lead among likely voters. Another online tracking poll, from the RAND Corporation, put Mr. Obama’s lead at roughly seven and a half percentage points, his largest of the year in that poll. And a national poll for Bloomberg produced by the pollster J. Ann Selzer, who has a strong track record, put Mr. Obama six points ahead.The exception was the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which gave Mitt Romney a two-point lead among likely voters. (This was in the version of the poll that included voters who leaned toward a candidate, which is the one that FiveThirtyEight uses for all surveys.)What to think of the Rasmussen poll? Their surveys usually have a Republican lean, but it seems to have gotten stronger in the last few weeks. It has also been stronger in some years than others. Rasmussen got reasonably good results in years like 2006 and 2008 when their polls were close to the consensus. However, their polls were the least accurate of the major polling firms in 2010, when they had an especially strong Republican house-effect. The same was true in 2000, when they had a three- or four-point statistical bias toward Republican candidates.This feature is not unique to Rasmussen Reports: a poll that substantially differs from the consensus, whether in a Democratic or Republican direction, is usually not one that you’ll want to bet on. And there is even less reason to do so when a poll is taking a number of methodological shortcuts, while others are being more thorough. But there have been years when the whole polling average has been off in one direction or another, and the “outlier” polls turn out to look good. It’s also the case that a broken clock is right twice a day.Accounting for all of the data, including the Rasmussen Reports poll, the FiveThirtyEight forecast showed Mr. Obama making gains. His probability of winning the Electoral College is now listed at 81.9 percent, his highest figure of the year and up from 79.7 percent on Tuesday.We’re at a point in the race, however, when it’s important to contrast what we think might happen on Nov. 6 with what we’re seeing in the polls at the moment. Right now, there is a gap between these two things.Although Mr. Obama is now the clear favorite in the Nov. 6 forecast, his advantage is larger in the FiveThirtyEight “now-cast,” which projects what would happen in an election held today.The “now-cast” estimates that Mr. Obama would have a 97.8 percent chance of winning an election held today. Further, it pegs his advantage at five and a half percentage points in the national popular vote.By contrast, the Nov. 6 forecast expects Mr. Obama to win by a smaller margin, 3.6 percentage points, on Election Day itself. Two things account for this disparity.First, there are still some effects from the convention bounce penalty that the Nov. 6 forecast applies to Mr. Obama’s polls, but which the “now-cast” does not. The convention bounce adjustment is phasing out of the model, but it hasn’t done so completely.Second, the Nov. 6 forecast is still using economic data along with the polls. By design, the economic component of the forecast receives less and less weight over the course of the year, since it becomes less and less likely that there will be predictable effects from economic news that are not already priced into the polls. (By Election Day itself, the economic component of the model will phase out completely, meaning that the forecast will become equivalent to the “now-cast.”) For the time being, however, the economic index still accounts for about 30 percent of the forecast.The way that the economic index evaluates the data, Mr. Obama is the favorite in the race. However, he is only a slight one, and the economic index has been declining recently, following a poor report on manufacturing activity and a decline in the stock market over the last week on renewed investor concerns about Europe.Mr. Obama is considered a modest favorite by the economic model because he is the incumbent president, and incumbents are favored given average economic conditions. The economy is decidedly below-average, but it is not recessionary, and there have been just enough bright spots in the data that Mr. Obama remains in the buffer zone where his incumbency advantage could outweigh it.However, the economic index would point toward a two- or three-point win for Mr. Obama in the popular vote, rather than the five- or six-point advantage that he has enjoyed in the most recent polls. Thus, the economic index is exerting some downward pressure on Mr. Obama’s Nov. 6 forecast.If the election were held today, however, it could look pretty ugly for Mr. Romney. The “now-cast” has Mr. Obama favored in all the states he won in 2008 except for Indiana, where he is several points behind, and North Carolina, which it shows as an almost exact tie. It would project Mr. Obama to win 337 electoral votes, slightly fewer than the 365 that he won in 2008.Beneath the surface, however, there are some bigger differences in the individual states. In the table below, I’ve compared how Mr. Obama performed in each of the 50 states in 2008 against what the “now-cast” estimates would happen in an election held today. In 14 of the 50 states, the “now-cast” would bet on Mr. Obama winning by a larger margin than he did in 2008. They are an eclectic mix and include the following:· Two states, Arizona and Alaska, that were home to the Republican presidential and vice-presidential candidates in 2008.· Three states in New England: Vermont, Maine and Rhode Island. There is an interesting split this year among the six New England states, with Mr. Obama running very well in these three, which are poorer, but not as well in Connecticut, New Hampshire and Massachusetts, where voters are better off.· Several states in the upland South, like Kentucky and Tennessee, where polls have sometimes shown Mr. Obama running ahead of his 2008 numbers. This is a region of the country where a higher-than-average number of voters said in exit polls that the race of the candidates played a role in their voting decision. It is possible that some of these racial effects have abated as Mr. Obama has become more of a familiar presence. It is also possible that this is a region of the country where polls still exaggerate the standing of African-American candidates. (This phenomenon, termed the Bradley Effect, no longer seems to hold in most parts of the country.)· New York, where Mr. Obama’s numbers have been quite strong in the polls, and which has gone from a state where Republicans could sometimes compete into one that seems completely lost for them.· Finally, two swing states: Florida and Ohio.The utter weirdness of this mix – how often do you see Ohio, New York, Kentucky and Vermont on the same list? – is one reason to be skeptical that either candidate has all that much of an advantage in the Electoral College relative to his position in the popular vote.With Mr. Obama’s strong run of polling in the swing states recently, the model has reverted back to figuring that he would have just the slightest Electoral College edge in an election in which the popular vote were exactly tied. But it is a slight advantage indeed: the model estimates that Mr. Obama would have a 53 percent chance of winning the Electoral College under those conditions.If Mr. Obama were to choose any two states in which to overperform, Ohio and Florida are pretty good picks, and both represent huge problems for Mr. Romney. It is too late in the race, and there are too many polls there, to write off Mr. Obama’s polling in these states as a fluke – although the set of Quinnipiac polls certainly present a rather optimistic case.Mr. Obama is also polling fairly close to his 2008 levels in Minnesota and Pennsylvania, two states that Mr. Romney has not contested as vigorously as John McCain did four years ago. Some recent polls also show Mr. Obama near his 2008 numbers in Virginia and North Carolina, where demographic and cultural shifts seem to be working in favor of Democrats.But there are a number of other swing states in which Mr. Obama is still polling well off his 2008 pace. Mr. Obama’s numbers have perked up in Iowa and Colorado, for instance – but polls are suggestive of a lead for him in the mid-single-digits there, when he won both states by nine percentage points in 2008.Mr. Obama is a heavy favorite in Michigan, but is highly unlikely to replicate his 2008 performance, when Mr. McCain pulled out of the state early and he won it by more than 16 points. He is also unlikely to duplicate his 12-point margin of victory in Nevada, where economic conditions are so poor as to be almost depressionary (Nevada’s median household income fell to $47,043 in 2011 from $54,744 in 2008) — or in Wisconsin, in which Paul D. Ryan should help Mr. Romney at least a little bit.Because he won some of these states by such a wide margin in 2008, Mr. Obama has a lot of cushion in them. Michigan, in particular, looks all but lost for Mr. Romney, and Wisconsin may be getting that way.But in order to say that Mr. Obama had an especial advantage in the Electoral College relative to his standing in the popular vote, we’d need to see at least one or two more of these states start polling in the high single digits for him, as Ohio now is. If Mr. Obama were polling three points better in Colorado than our current estimate has him, for instance, he’d win the Electoral College in about an additional 2 percent of the time, making him almost an 85 percent favorite, with most of those additional wins coming in cases where he lost the national popular vote.If Mr. Obama did this in two or more of these states – say, Colorado and Nevada, or Iowa and Virginia – we might say that Mr. Obama had really developed a “blue wall.” Right now, we’re not quite able to do that. His highly favorable numbers in Ohio and Florida lately offset other swing states where he’s likely to underachieve his 2008 numbers by several percentage points.Still, this Electoral College discussion is going to be academic unless Mr. Romney can reverse his poor run of polling. We’ll conclude with a scary thought for Republicans.Right now, the Nov. 6 forecast projects that Mr. Obama will win the popular vote by 3.6 percentage points. As I mentioned, that does account for about a two-point decline from where Mr. Obama seems to be in the polls right now. Otherwise, however, the model assumes that the uncertainty in the forecast is symmetric: Mr. Obama is as likely to overperform it as underperform it.If Mr. Obama misses to the downside by 3.7 percentage points, then Mr. Romney would win, at least in the popular vote. However, if Mr. Obama missed to the upside by 3.7 percentage point instead, he’d win the popular vote by 7.3 percentage points, exactly replicating his margin from 2008.In other words, there looks to be about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Romney will win, but also about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Obama will actually beat his 2008 margin in the popular vote. The smart money is on an outcome somewhere in the middle – as it has been all year. But if you can conceive of a Romney comeback – and you should account for that possibility – you should also allow for the chance that things could get really out of hand, and that Mr. Obama could win in a borderline landslide.

MrObvious
MrObvious

http://latimesblogs.latimes.co...

He was ordered not to own or use devices with access to the Web without approval from his probation officer -– and any approved computers were to be used for work only. "Defendant shall not access a computer for any other purpose," according to the terms of his probation.

I guess you think it's alright that he breaks the term of his probation, just to attack Obama?

MrObvious
MrObvious

Lame, again - show me where I lied. Don't be a weasel.

filmnoia
filmnoia

No, it's just a white chick franchise. Preferably those with a good deal of helium between their ears.

filmnoia
filmnoia

$1 mil - a mere bag of shells compared to what the Koch Bros. have donated.

It's also a pittance compared to what that moral leper Shelly "Every day is a Bad Hair day" Adelson has given to his fellow moral leper.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

Are you against Citizens United too?

sacredh
sacredh

I look at it as more of every day that the polls are good is one less day we have to worry before the election. I'm hoping November 6th gets here and I haven't spent a single day worrying. There's nothing I could do about it anyway, but being in a comfort zone has it's advantages.

paulejb
paulejb

Benevolent Lawyer,

No need for Democrats to vote. The mainstream media is sure it's in the bag for Obama making him the first president to be re-elected after trashing the economy.

ahandout
ahandout

 Obama has already won.  It's over.  The polls have elected him, stay home and watch the Simpsons.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

I'm not dancing or rejoicing, just amused how the right keeps insisting that all of the polls with the exception of Rasmussen are wrong.

MrObvious
MrObvious

Weird, I point out your fallacies and I'm the one lying. Maybe you should look up the word fallacy?

Sorry - but if you lack the integrity of providing a honest argument then it's not our fault for calling you out.

Maybe you don't have the stones, but then you give no one any reason to take anything you say seriously. That makes you a internet troll.

DonQuixotic
DonQuixotic

Paul endthreads to declare himself better than everyone.  I am not surprised.

Benevolent Lawyer
Benevolent Lawyer

Thanks for sharing. That was a really insightful piece.

Cheers!

ahandout
ahandout

 How is that FBI investigation of the Benghazi attack going, Mr O?''

After 16 days have you found a link to the true story of the attack from Barry?  Is your google broken, Mr O? 

paulejb
paulejb

ahandout,

An awful lot of hating whitey at the Swamp. What do you suppose set these people off?

paulejb
paulejb

filmnoia,

Yeah! What's with that cheap SOB Soros? 

paulejb
paulejb

DonQuixotic,

No. I was just wondering why billionaire Soros was such a cheap SOB? Maybe he's afraid of throwing good money after bad Obama.

MrObvious
MrObvious

No,

He is for as much money as possible, no transparency (well he was for it before he was against it) and he dislikes crony capitalism.

paulejb
paulejb

DonQuixotic,

Remember you can always claim "we wuz robbed" when Bambi goes the way of Jimmy Carter.

paulejb
paulejb

MrObvious,

You have merely pointed out your total detachment from reality. Of all the hive members, you are tops in persistent cluelessness.

paulejb
paulejb

DonQuixotic,

I know. Just stating the obvious is probably piling on.

sacredh
sacredh

You're welcome. Nate is like a fine wine. You want to share it with friends.

MrObvious
MrObvious

How is that FBI investigation of the Benghazi attack going, Mr O?

And that is related to the arrest for breaking his term of probation how? I don't work for FBI, so you're going to have to talk to them about it rather then trying to change the subject here.

Is your google broken, Mr O?

You probably have no idea how dumb that comes off.

ahandout
ahandout

Paul, they just follow their leader.

MrObvious
MrObvious

The more the merrier. Only Muslim fanatics and liberals want to stifle free speech.

False, besides only human beings have free speech rights, corporations are not humans.

paulejb
paulejb

MrObvious,

The more the merrier. Only Muslim fanatics and liberals want to stifle free speech.

MrObvious
MrObvious

You have merely pointed out your total detachment from reality. Of all the hive members, you are tops in persistent cluelessness.

Simple, just show and prove where I lied.

Maybe you think using words like 'the hive' insulates you from what you do, but here in reality BS walks.

So go ahead. No more empty gestures and promises from you.

MrObvious
MrObvious

Stating the obvious seems to have a completely different meaning for you.