The 2012 Republican nomination will be decided largely by whether Newt Gingrich runs a disciplined and well-executed campaign over the next several weeks. This, of course, is somewhat like expecting Lindsay Lohan to be punctual and dignified, but stranger things have happened. Even assuming that Gingrich doesn’t implode (something he himself won’t rule out, by the way), I would argue that his current surge significantly overstates his advantage over Mitt Romney. There are plenty of reasons for this, including the amount of abuse Gingrich is about to suffer from Romney, the Republican establishment and the mainstream media, which reciprocates his hostility for them. But for the moment, let’s focus on Iowa.
Gingrich has a handy lead in Iowa, but not an overwhelming one. He leads Romney 33% to 20% in the latest TIME/CNN/ORC poll. But Gingrich isn’t just competing with Romney. He draws mainly from a pool of conservative voters targeted by several other rivals, whereas Romney basically wins the moderate vote by default. Gingrich’s most potent threat on the right is Texas Governor Rick Perry, now hovering around 10% but, in my opinion, quite capable of rising several more points. Perry’s campaign just launched a $1.2 million television buy, going hard at religious conservative voters with an ad focused on faith and values, and he and the Super PAC supporting him still have plenty more to spend. Could Perry overtake Gingrich? I doubt it. But if Iowans give Perry a second look, Gingrich could easily suffer a loss of a few points. At the same time, Romney may have room to grow in Iowa. He mostly ignored the state until this fall, but that’s changing. And now a cavalry worth several million dollars is riding into town, pistols blazing. As if that weren’t enough, it would appear that Ron Paul has also got Gingrich in his crosshairs, and Paul has a few bucks of his own to spend.
Then there’s the matter of organization. Romney has it, and Gingrich does not. In Iowa, the Gingrich campaign’s phones are literally just arriving. This is like a builder just getting his cement several months after the foundation was supposed to have been poured. Gingrich may lack the man power to translate his poll support into actual caucus support on Jan. 3. (That’s the view of Karl Rove, among many others.) There is a convincing case that caucus organization is overrated, at least for Republicans (because the GOP process is less byzantine than the Democratic version). But you still need people to work phones (once you have them!), shovel out any buried driveways and drive timid grannies to the caucus site. Count me skeptical that a man who appeared to be on a glorified book tour until a few weeks ago will have a top-notch team in place within one month. I don’t doubt Romney’s ability to at least partly make up in man power what his followers lack in passion.
Take these elements together and you have Romney’s potential salvation: Perry finds a second wind as he and Paul beat up on Gingrich and further divide the conservative/anti-Mitt vote. Gingrich’s organization fumbles the mechanics of caucus turnout. A wave of money and time on the stump pulls Romney up a few points. It would be enough for Romney to claim a caucus win that would dramatically enhance his odds of winning the nomination — or at least place a strong second that would prevent Gingrich from roaring into New Hampshire with extreme momentum. (Although there are limits to such momentum; ask Obama how New Hampshire went for him in 2008.)
Remember: all of this assumes that Gingrich remains on good behavior. And nobody ever got rich betting on that.