That’s increasingly the consensus among the Washington insider set. But I’m still not sold.
The argument for why Romney’s nomination is all but certain has some compelling elements. Perhaps the most persuasive is the point Matt Bai makes in his fine new Times magazine story on the modern GOP, which is that the party’s base frequently convulses during the primary, only to settle grudgingly on a fairly moderate nominee. Think Bush 41, Dole, Bush 43 (who was known as a bipartisan dealmaker in Texas), and John McCain. Romney has also demonstrated impressive political skill, he’s got a ton of money, and key party leaders are lining up behind him. Plus, who else is there? Herman Cain still doesn’t seem to be campaigning in earnest–just look at his official schedule–and Rick Perry has been a major flop. None of the other candidates seem able to get airborne.
But all those things may yet change. If there’s any consistent signal from every poll over the past several months, it’s that Republicans are extremely lukewarm on the guy. It’s not that Romney gets outpaced in the polls by more credible candidates like Perry. It’s that he has alternately been beaten by the likes of Michele Bachmann and, more recently, Herman Cain. More Republicans are willing to say they support someone who they probably know will have a hard time getting elected than they are to back Romney.
And here’s the thing: As I’ve noted a few times before, Romney has had an amazingly easy ride thus far. None of his rivals have yet done an effective job of reminding Republican voters of Romney’s multiple ideological heresies. Even the Cain sensation plays somewhat to Romney’s advantage, in that it sucks up the oxygen Rick Perry needs to make a fresh start of things.
But, assuming that a former pizza chain CEO is not nominee material, who could actually overtake Romney? I wouldn’t count out Rick Perry. He has money, he has prominent supporters, and although he’s got flaws in his record, he is far closer to the sweet spot of the conservative activist base. If he suffered early from a sense that he had waltzed too easily to his brief moment of front-runnerdom, he now has the opportunity to impress everyone with a gritty comeback. I would still rather be Romney than Perry in this race. But I think it’s way too early to call this thing over.
