Gallup is out with a useful, if not timely, snapshot of presidential approval by state culled from its tracking data in the first half of the year:
Obama’s ability to defend the gains he made in 2008 — he won Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, all of which John Kerry lost to George W. Bush in 2004 — will likely determine his re-election. He’s polling below 50% in each of them, but he’s pretty close to even everywhere except Indiana. A rating in the mid- to high-40s has begun to look like something of a floor for Obama. Of course, the current economic turmoil is sure to test that.