Egyptian Military Figures to Watch

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As the Egyptian military issues “Communique #1” and Mubarak’s ouster appears imminent, Swampland’s very cursory guide to military figures to watch follows:

1) Egypt’s chief of staff of the armed forces, Lt. Gen. Sami Annan.

Annan was in Washington for planned meetings when the Jan. 28 day of rage unfolded, and stayed on a little longer than expected. It was apparently he, today, who told protesters in Tahrir Square that by tonight all their demands will be met. He’s seen by some Egypt hands in Washington as a possible bridge between military and the protesters.

2) Field Marshall Mohamed Hussein Tantawi.

Tantawi has waded into the scrum on Tahrir Sq. as well, and is close to Mubarak. In March 2008, ahead of Tantawi’s visit to the U.S., Amb. Frank Ricciardone sent this assessment of his attitude towards reform, (via WikiLeaks here):

7. (S) Reform: In the cabinet, where he still wields significant influence, Tantawi has opposed both economic and political reforms that he perceives as eroding central government power. He is supremely concerned with national unity, and has opposed policy initiatives he views as encouraging political or religious cleavages within Egyptian society. In a speech on March 9, Tantawi said one of the military’s roles is to protect constitutional legitimacy and internal stability, signaling his willingness to use the military to control the Muslim Brotherhood in the run-up to the April 9 municipal council elections. On economic reform, Tantawi believes that Egypt’s economic reform plan fosters social instability by lessening GOE controls over prices and production. Tantawi rejects any conditioning on Egyptian FMF on human rights or any other grounds. Before this year he thought that FMF was inviolable and regarded ESF as a layer of protection against possible cuts to FMF. He will argue that any conditions on military assistance are counter-productive. He will also state that the military is not behind human rights problems in Egypt and that U.S. Congressional human rights conditionally is mis-targeted.

3) Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman

A comfortable pick for realists who want to maintain the status quo, Suleiman has long been the interlocutor in secret talks between Israel and Hamas. Human Rights advocates blanch at the idea of him remaining in power, and it is hard to see the protesters viewing him as more than a direct successor to Mubarak.

4) Former Air Force Commander Ahmed Shafik

Appointed Prime Minister after Mubarak dissolved his cabinet, he’s in pole position, but a Mubarak endorsement doesn’t get you what it used to in Egypt.