Old Guard Dems Are Asking Themselves: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Rep. Jane Harman, a California Blue Dog Dem is going, she announced today, to head up the Woodrow Wilson Center. Also leaving: Senators Kent Conrad and Joe Lieberman.

Staying thus far are Reps. John Dingell, John Conyers and Barney Frank — all of whom have already announced their plans to run again. If this seems rather early, it’s not.

Democrats are eying the redistricting process about to begin which could make their reelections a lot tougher next cycle. Conyers and Dingell — the two of the longest serving members in the House — for example, might find themselves running for the same Michigan district in 2012. Dems also factoring in the possible loss of the majority in the Senate and potential continued minority in the House — making staying much less appealing for the old guard who might not want to tough it out until the next majority. “Being in the minority is a factor for Democrats and being in a redistricting cycle is going to weigh more on retirement decisions,” says Nathan Gonzales, of the Rothenberg Political Report. Which means many more senior Democrats will be making similar declarations in the weeks to come on whether they’ll stay or go.

Subscribe to Jay Newton-Small on Facebook
Related Topics: minority, redistricting, 2012 Election, Congress, Democratic Party, Senate
  • Latest on Swampland

    Pete Souza / The White House via Getty Images

    Political Picures of the Week, May 18-25

    TIME’s photo editors bring you the best pictures of the past week from the Beltway and beyond.

    Obama Administration Blocks Global Health Fund To Fight Disease In Developing NationsHuffPost Politics

    From left: AP; ABACAUSA

    The Phony War: Obama and Romney Are Debating Character, Not Policy

    More than five months from Election Day, the back-and-forth about Mitt Romney’s record at Bain already feels played out. Unfortunately, there’s good reason to expect the campaign continues in this vein indefinitely. Neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney are terribly interested in dwelling on policy platforms. Romney’s plan to slash spending and keep taxes low on the wealthy isn’t especially popular, at least not at any level of detail beyond a blithe promise to shrink the deficit. Meanwhile, Obama’s signature first-term achievements, like health care, the stimulus and Wall Street reform, are all unpopular or tricky to sell. (The Dodd-Frank bill is the most popular of these, but hyping it means offending wealthy donors.) So what we’re getting instead is a superficial duel about character–and, worse, one that’s based on the largely false premise that the better man can better “manage” the economy back to health.

  • afguy

    You’re calling THOSE (Conrad, Harman, and Lieberman) “old guard Dems”?
    .
    Jeez…

  • deconstructiva

    Thanks, Jay. Hope this week goes much easier for ya than last week. If the old guard D’s are heading out, what’s the new guard? With the R’s it’s easy to spot: the Tea Party. But as you see ‘em / tea leaves, what’s the new wave of D’s like and who are some of the upcoming D leaders? Will you interview any of ‘em soon? An interesting dead-tree cover would be a mini-debate hosted by YOU and Katy between Rand Paul (the new R) and ??? (the new D, who is…?). This would NOT be false equivalency media stuff that rarely ever gets noticed by commenters here (you have to search to find them) but the real deal: how two opposite futures stars of their parties tackle job creation, party philosophy / purity, debt ceilings, etc. on a neutral playing field. Beats Palin speeches.
    .
    I don’t see a “left TP” and it’s not a good analogy, but whither the D’s future? Some commenters here want a more progressive wing to step up, but NOT another corporate “centrist” one. I’d appreciate your thoughts Jay, as always (before the trolls come in and ruin your thread, as always, but I digress).

  • afguy

    “Truth in Advertising” is apparently dead as a policy at any level.

  • http://www.twitter.com/jnsmall Jay Newton-Small

    Harman & Conrad have been there 18 years each and Lieberman’s been there 22 years. So, yeah — I’d call them old guard. You think they’re spring chickens? Feisty freshmen? They’ve all served as committee chairmen.
    JNS

  • newfreedomblog

  • newfreedomblog

    And of course, my favorite!!
    .
    Enjoy!!
    .

  • afguy

    I think it’s the all-inclusive Dems label that we’re having problems with, NOT their length of service.
    .
    DINO’s, centrists, corporatists, and, of course, “moderates” (always a favorite) maybe…
    .
    Lieberman, a real Dem… seriously? He gave a speech at the last GOP Convention and supported their nominee, ferchristsakes.

  • Matt

    What the Harman (and Lieberman) decision proves is that the Blue Dog Democrat is an endangered species. You cannot vote with Republicans, rhetorically sympathize with Republicans, and attack the leadership of the Democrats and remain a member of that party. The electoral maps are more difficult for the Dems in the elections coming up, and they need the strongest candidates to run.
    http://www.sunstateactivist.org

  • deconstructiva

    Whither R / TP unity in ’12 or will they attack each other? If the latter then maybe some D’s in red districts who stay on message (and don’t veer to the right just to win votes in conservative areas) have a chance, thanks to vote splitting and a real alternative to those voters besides Sellout Arthur Jensen Corporatism and I-wanna-take-away-your-Social-Security-check-to-cut-deficits-instead-of-cutting-MIC-contracts. Howard Dean was right to fight hard in all districts but the Blue Dog approach is not the best way, try something else.

  • m0mentom0ri

    Thank you, Rusty. In your usual drunken zeal to celebrate, you’ve posted a musical rendition of a poem by Robert Burns – one of the most liberal poets in history.
    .
    It’d be ironic, if you understood the term. I’ll just stick with ‘clueless lunatic’ for now.

  • m0mentom0ri

    see 4.1

  • freeinpa

    Jay:

    I think what he means is that if they aren’t Alan Grayson Demos (Nuts) they are not Democrats.

    But of course its the Tea Party that is in the extreme.

  • earljr1

    Good old decompose, fawning (as usual) over the liberal reporters like some teen age groupie. Start acting your age decompose, your hormone imbalance has you acting goofy again.
    Face it, the democrats are behind the eight ball and have no one to blame but themselves. If the best you can offer is Nancy, Harry and good ole’ Barney, then yes, I would say you are in real trouble.
    In just two years, the lies, the deceit, Obamacare and general ineptitude, cost you the house, placed Obama in severe jeopardy and in 2012, the senate and probably the presidency.
    For the final rub, decompose, the Tea Party will continue to play a major role in making these predictions come true. Read ‘em and weep.

  • hippooath

    “I think what he means is that if they aren’t Alan Grayson Demos (Nuts) they are not Democrats.

    But of course its the Tea Party that is in the extreme.”
    .
    I’m curious – what would you call Lieberman?

  • deconstructiva

    Not if the R’s / TP’s fail to produce jobs for everyone, earl. Your party is going to implode, pass the popcorn. Which is more (or less) likely, a sweep as you predict or proof of your “medical license”? And you do read a lot like rusty, coincidence, hmm? If you’re not one and the same then you’re the one doing the fawning (as usual) by imitating him. You can’t beat the original, that truism still holds. Speak with your own paranoid voice, please. And prove you’re a doctor.

  • earljr1

    Poor decompose, she cannot stand success. Probably because her own life has been such a failure. Camped out on swampland all day, doing NOTHING to benefit society and really jealous that newfreedom makes mincemeat of her puny arguments.
    I would like to stick around to hear more, decompose, but I really do have some meaningful (you do understand that word, don’t you?) work to do.

  • deconstructiva

    …still no proof from you, as usual, and what type of “meaningful work” do you really do?

  • freeinpa

    I would call Liebermann a moderate Democrat. One of the Old Guard similar to Lee Hamilton or Republicans Dick Lugar

  • afguy

    free@1.6: Bad comparison. Both of those had some core principles. Lieberman’s loyalties are only to himself, Israel, and to whatever corporate boards his wife happens to be sitting on.
    .
    Remember. He was primaried and supported the GOP presidential candidate.
    .
    Little “D” or moderate about him. GOP Lite, maybe… could be why you like him so much.
    .
    Oh, yeah, almost forgot… and because he pisses off liberals.

  • m0mentom0ri

    “Good old decompose, fawning (as usual) over the liberal reporters like some teen age groupie. ”
    .
    “Probably because her own life has been such a failure.”
    .
    C’mon, earl, you’re better than that. Is that really where you want the dialog to go? Do you really want to be just another of the Rusty/textee/Freep crowd?

  • apr2563

    earljr: You are really an unpleasant man. Go take your unpleasantness to some of your mythical patients.
    .
    Jane Harman is not leaving because she couldn’t be reelected. She just was reelected. And, she is worth gazillions, so no trouble funding a new campaign. Also, her district is very Democratic. This is California after all.
    .
    I say hooray. She has the stain of years propping up torture, rendition, and the undermining of our privacy rights regarding surveillance.
    .
    I will welcome a new Democratic Rep.

  • freeinpa

    “He was primaried and supported the GOP presidential candidate.”

    .
    By your own words he stood by his principles as he decided that the Democratic party moved to the extreme left and he wouldn’t move. The left like you didn’t like it which says more about them and you than Liebrmann

  • paulejb

    hippooath@1.5,

    “…what would you call Lieberman?

    “A liberal with sanity,” like Ed Koch. An altogether rare bird.

  • paulejb

    deconstructiva@2,

    “I don’t see a “left TP…”

    That’s not surprising. The much ballyhooed “Coffee Party” seems to have failed to launch. But I am sure it was not for lack of trying. It just appears that no one was interested.

  • paulejb

    momentomori@4.1,

    Conservatives have absolutely no problem with liberal poets. As a matter of fact we wish you would all stick to poetry. It is only when you get into prose that you become dangerous.

  • paulejb

    Matt@5,

    31 of 54 blue dogs went down to defeat last November. A truly tremendous wipeout, but a net of 63 Democrat House seats were lost. That means 32 non-blue dog Democrats also were given their walking papers by the voters. Nothing to cheer about for liberals.

  • hippooath

    “”A liberal with sanity,” like Ed Koch. An altogether rare bird.”
    .
    Don’t you have to be liberal to be considered as such?

  • square1

    JNS omits the fact that Lieberman isn’t even a DINO. He’s not an elected Democrat.

  • paulejb

    deconstructiva@2.2,

    A faint hope, decon. High unemployment in 2012 will be viewd as Barack Obama’s responsibility. No matter how much favorable coverage BHO gets from the dinosaur media, the public will still view him as a failed president.

  • hippooath

    “That’s not surprising. The much ballyhooed “Coffee Party” seems to have failed to launch. But I am sure it was not for lack of trying. It just appears that no one was interested.”
    .
    The liberal movement don’t need a self reinforced ignorant bubble for the sake of making up stuff about reality and all things around us. We don’t need a intellectual counter punch to the tea party. That’s just to much time spent on something that’s obvious for most people and we certainly don’t need a group of ditto heads finding ‘strength’ in number.
    .
    I can easily defeat the argument of a 1000 TPers without another party supporting me. Simply because truth is not the statistical majority, only based on the data or if you so want, truthiness.
    .
    I understand why you’re impressed by TPers. It’s a vocal group. All emotional. All patriotic. But I’m really not all that impressed by the emotional outburst of a bunch of people who get so much stuff wrong. Ignorance in number is not a good thing.
    .
    Anyways – I personally didn’t know there was such a thing as a coffee party. Don’t need it.

  • paulejb

    Jay Newton-Small@1.2,

    Afguy was probably thinking of some real “old dogs” like John Dingell [53 years], John Conyers [45 years], and Charlie Rangel [40 years]. They make Harman, Conrad and Lieberman seem like young whippersnappers.

  • hippooath

    “A faint hope, decon. High unemployment in 2012 will be viewd as Barack Obama’s responsibility. No matter how much favorable coverage BHO gets from the dinosaur media, the public will still view him as a failed president”
    .
    I agree – but it’s a terrible thing to wish on this country just so your tribe can win the presidency and drive this country further into the ditch.

  • paulejb

    hippooath@1.10,

    Than why would Mayor Ed have made it a point to single himself out as sane. It appears that even he thinks that sanity is a rare commodity among liberals, wouldn’t you say?

    Remember, Ed Koch comes from NYC the mecca of liberal insanity.

  • earljr1

    Ah yes, my day has been made. Two old socialist sponges mouthing indignation….what a hoot.
    april, you are what you are. A pot smoking, hypocritical old socialists and your meme never changes. Liberals good, conservatives bad. You sound like an old, windup gramophone stuck in the same groove.
    “This is California after all” yes, april, that explains everything. What other state could produce a Maxine Waters (a person you dearly love) Barbara Boxer AND Nancy Pelosi? LaLa land on steroids. You fit right in, you old druggie.

  • paulejb

    apr2563@2,6,

    It is odd though, her leaving. Especially when her husband just bought Newsweek for a dollar. Perhaps a Senate or Gubernatorial run is in the future? President, even?

  • apr2563

    earljr: Because I smoked a few joints over 30 years ago hardly makes me a pothead. And, you seem to be obsessed by my age. Sure hope you aren’t in geriatrics.
    .
    Here is a point of view from a Californian. This is after he worked hard with Democrats to defeat that scary socialist Upton Sinclair in his ill-fated gubernatorial campaign. Of course, the mention of his evil name makes righties go insane and start pining for those plantation days.
    .
    http://newstalgia.crooksandliars.com/gordonskene/weekend-talk-shows-past-crossfire-earl
    .

    California Governor Earl Warren: Warnings of the Right Wing Fringe in The Republican Party in 1952
    .
    Before he was Supreme Court Justice, Earl Warren was three-time Governor of California and an unsuccessful candidate for the Presidency in 1952.
    .
    On the eve of the convention, ABC Radio conducted a panel interview with Warren for their Crossfire Radio series, featuring newsmen Martin Agronsky, Elmer Davis, John Edwards and Bryson Rasch.
    .
    Martin Agronsky: At the National Press Club here Governor, you described the Republican party as having, and I’m quoting you ‘a withering right wing’. Were you referring to the wing which supports Senator Taft’s nomination?”
    .
    Gov. Earl Warren:“I wasn’t pointing that at anybody, I was stating it as a fact, that there is a group in our party that is extremely reactionary, that would like to turn the clock back to former days if it could do so. . . . ”
    .
    Warren: “You folks know exactly what I mean. You know the people who believe that anything that is done for them represents social progress but if it’s done for anybody else it represents socialism.”

    .
    Warren understood the reactionaries in his party very well. Little changes for Republicans.

  • paulejb

    hippooath@2.9,

    “The liberal movement don’t need a self reinforced ignorant bubble…”

    Than why the “Coffee Party?”

    Why are the radio airwaves littered with the bodies of legions of liberal talkers sent to compete against Rush?

    Why do the “other” cable news networks continually shift hosts in an attempt to compete with the powerhouse Fox line up?

    Oh, and don’t feel bad about not knowing about the “Coffee Party.” There are tens of millions of Americans just like you. The “Coffee Party” was an upper west side of Manhattan type thing and those people have really sort attention spans.

  • paulejb

    hippooath@2.10,

    Whoa! Take a step back, hippo. I didn’t raise the issue, decon did. I merely pointed out the fallacy of his assertion. Go back and re-read both posts.

  • paulejb

    afguy@1.7,

    Actually, most everyone who is not a rabid liberal pi$$es off liberals. They seem to be in a constant state of being pi$$ed off. It is growing exceedingly tedious.

  • paulejb

    apr2563@2.13,

    Reports of the death of the Republican party at the hands of the “right wing” have always been exaggerated. No, apr, they just keep coming back stronger than before.

  • apr2563

    NewRusty:
    Yes, the inept liberal writers: Harlan Ellison, Chris Hedges, Zinn, Fallows, Harper Lee, Wills and of course the departed: Steinbeck, Lewis, Jefferson, Lincoln, Martin Luther King Jr., Gorky, Ivins, Trumbo, Hammett, Welles, Chomsky, Twain. The list is varied and endless.
    .
    Oh, I know you have Jonah Goldberg, Palin, and Beck.

  • apr2563

    paulejb: I would welcome the revival of a strong, rational Republican Party. Warren, Javits, Buckley, Brookes, Ford, Dirkson, Dole, Chafee, etc. Unfortunately, as so often happens to the party of Lincoln, they become captive of their worst demons, the far right. They do a purge. And for awhile they are led by their better angels.

  • afguy

    How could it be tedious, paulie?
    .
    You work so hard at it here. You’ve admitted it yourself that much of what you say is to get a rise.
    .
    We are waiting for some CONSTRUCTIVE input from you… we REALLY are.

  • rahonavis2

    Can someone please answer this for me. After all the attention the “Tea Party” gets in the media, can you point to a single seat in either the house or the senate that was won by a “Tea Party” candidate that would not have been one by a normal republican in the last election cycle? Besides the fact that an incumbent president’s party almost always loses seats in a mid term, you add the unemployment numbers and the economy and everyone new that the Republicans were going to do extremely well. In red states they won, but a republican would have won anyway. In places they took back seats that were traditionally Republican and only changed in the 2006 or 2008 elections (which was partially fueled by the anger at Bush and the coat tails of Obama which wasn’t there this time because Bush is out of office and Obama is not on the ticket), and once again in this climate would have been won by a regular republican. In Bluer states they lost, costing the Republicans a couple of senate seats and probably a house seat or two. In Alaska, a red state, they cost the Republicans a seat which went to a a independent (the former republican candidate). Scott Brown won in Mass. as a republican, and has since speaking and acting in ways that have only angered the “Tea Party” because they are consistent with a Blue State more moderate Republican. So honestly can anyone give me a couple of examples of seats that a republican could not have won in the last cycle unless they were a Tea Party member?

    And please no insults, name calling or other childish things from either side, this is a serious question and I want serious conservatives to name and show evidence that the Tea Party actually has done anything to increase the republicans power base. The more I read of them the more I see a small group of conservatives who are trying to claim that any progress their party has made is due to them without any evidence to support it.

  • afguy

    We’ve seen your rapier-like wit in evidence in virtually every reply you make here. What we have NOT seen, however, is ANY attempt to make a useful contribution to the discussion.
    .
    Your “johnny-one-note” attempts at humor is what we are finding tedious… get over yourself.
    .
    You’re not THAT cute.

  • newfreedomblog

    Two words, Alan Grayson. LOL!!!

  • hippooath

    “Than why would Mayor Ed have made it a point to single himself out as sane. It appears that even he thinks that sanity is a rare commodity among liberals, wouldn’t you say?”
    .
    Why would I say that? Now what does that have to do with if Lieberman is a Liberal or not? You keep writing here that you’re not the bomb throwing kind but you have a witty kind of snark. At what point will the wit and the no bombs be on display?
    .
    “Actually, most everyone who is not a rabid liberal pi$$es off liberals. They seem to be in a constant state of being pi$$ed off. It is growing exceedingly tedious.”
    .
    Interesting point. I’m personally not p!ssed off about a lot of things except for ignorant people that substitute facts for myths. Being a none liberal isn’t going to raise my blood pressure. Now about being p!ssed off. Reading most of the righties here, elsewhere and listening to them on the radio it seems to be a lot of schadenfreude, emotional outrage and generally a state of red faced anger.
    .
    And liberals are the p!ssed off ones? As stated by most righties here at one point or another – they’re not really here to exchange ideas – it’s mostly to p!ss off liberals.
    .
    It seems as if you have a tendency to project your own tribes behavior rather than anything on display here.

  • hippooath

    “”The liberal movement don’t need a self reinforced ignorant bubble…”

    Than why the “Coffee Party?”

    Why are the radio airwaves littered with the bodies of legions of liberal talkers sent to compete against Rush?

    Why do the “other” cable news networks continually shift hosts in an attempt to compete with the powerhouse Fox line up?

    Oh, and don’t feel bad about not knowing about the “Coffee Party.” There are tens of millions of Americans just like you. The “Coffee Party” was an upper west side of Manhattan type thing and those people have really sort attention spans.”
    .
    I guess you missed the point that I don’t need a coffee party to stay real. Do I need to explain the reason why again? I see – you think that if someone have better ratings they’re somehow ‘better’ or more true? Silly. I’ve read that argument a lot – as if having more viewers equals better truth. Ignorant people usually don’t argue using logic or even facts; they find solace in numbers. It’s kind of the idea that if 90 out of 100 says something it’s true, eventhough it’s not based in facts.
    .
    Good luck with that ‘flat earth’ thinking.

  • earljr1

    ole april hates Reagan and his ilk, but LOVES Maxine and her fellow crazies….the further left these loonies are, the more she likes them. All of that pot has erased a significant part of her brain….let this be a lesson to impressionable young people, marijuana can hurt you!

  • rahonavis2

    Alan Grayson represented Florida’s 8th congressional district for 2 years. He won his seat in 2008 (taking his seat in 2009), after it had been a republican seat for 26 years (Bill Young 1983-1993, Bill McCollum 1993-2001 than Ric Keller 2001-2009). Grayson beat Keller after Keller broke his promise only to serve 4 terms by 52% to 48% (oh thats the same percentage Obama won the district by, coincidence?). The man who beat Grayson, Daniel Webster, was a Florida house and senate member (including its majority leader from 2006-2008) and was a member of the “young guns” by the National Republican committee. He was also considered for appointment to the vacant senate seat left by Mel Martinez by then Governor Crist. Before he decided to ran in 2008 Jeb Bush and the Florida Republican party were asking him to run. He is not a “Tea Party” Candidate, he is a insider Republican (as insider as you can get). Alan Grayson won a traditional red seat by riding on Obama’s coat tails than lost to a old school republican candidate in a traditionally republican (at lest for the last 2+ decades) seat.

    This is the perfect example of what I am talking about. Grayson was likely going to lose anyway, and it was not a “Tea Party” outsider who won a seat that no insider could have, but a old school republican taking back a tradition republican seat.

    Thank you New for proving my point.

  • paulejb

    afguy@1.15 & 1.16,

    “You work so hard at it here.”

    Actually, I rarely break a sweat. We’re not curing cancer or developing a cold fusion energy source here. We do political chatter. The good, the bad, and the ugly.

    I can do “CONSTRUCTIVE” but I have learned to be subtle about it. Sort of like the frog and boiling water approach.

    I am grateful that you recognize my rapier like wit. It goes over so many other people’s heads. They can’t seem to hear you unless you are shouting invective.

    Oh, And I can do “cute” but I mostly go for the ironic.

  • paulejb

    apr2563@2.17,

    The above mentioned names were the people who so often lead the Republican party to ruin. The “go along to get along” crowd, the Democrat Lite gang all diluted the basic conservative values in order to become popular at Washington cocktail parties with the dominant liberal chattering class.

    So many came to Washington to do good and stayed to do well. It is good to see the back of so many of them.

  • paulejb

    hippooath@7 & 8,

    It has been my observation that for the most part that it is liberals that are dour and grim while conservatives are light hearted, happy warriors. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule like Michael Savage or Glenn Beck but you find more of that kind of thing on the left. Just check in with the Daily Kos and the Huff Post.

    Now take the Time blogs. I am fairly new here and not an expert, but it damn sure seems that there are a lot of pi$$ed off liberals here about. Time just has to print an article about the Palin family and the place lights up like the 4th of July. It’s awesome to watch. The anger and invective is palpable.

    You may not have noticed but my comments are rarely directed at the person that I am addressing. I write in general terms about the subject at hand. I believe that some people get offended because they see themselves as having the attributes I am describing.

    And finally, let’s clear up that myth that ratings are not a measure of the success of a TV network. In TV there are no other measures of success. If you draw the largest audience it is because the product that you offer meets the needs of the audience. There was a crying need for a balanced view of the world untainted by liberal bias prior to October 7, 1996. Then Fox News came along and filled that void and people beat a path to their door. It’s really that simple, hippo.

blog comments powered by Disqus