Congress

Reapportionment

By Adam Sorensen | @adamsorensen | December 21, 2010 | +

See above.

The Census Bureau unveiled its once-a-decade, constitutionally mandated population data this morning and the results are in: Eight states will gain at least one seat in the House of Representatives and 10 will lose seats. Here’s the breakdown:

Adding seats: Arizona +1, Florida +2, Georgia +1, Nevada +1, South Carolina +1, Texas +4, Utah +1, Washington +1

Losing seats: Illinois -1, Iowa -1, Louisiana -1, Massachusetts -1, Michigan -1, Missouri -1, New Jersey -1, New York- 2, Ohio -2, Pennsylvania -1

Those results reflect a population shift from the industrial north and midwest to the west and south. And on the whole, it’s very positive news politically for Republicans. Those states gaining seats are mostly GOP leaning, most notably Texas with a whopping addition of four. It also makes President Obama’s re-election climb slightly steeper; the number of electoral college electors allocated to each state is based on the 535 members of Congress (plus three from D.C.) Tom Bonier tells Politico that the reapportionment, when applied to 2008 election results, costs Obama six electoral college votes.

In November, Republicans picked up a number of the governships and state legislatures that redraw the maps to accomodate new districts, further adding to their advantage in the process going forward. All these changes will take effect in 2012.

More Census data is available here. One last interesting tidbit: The average congressional district now has a population of more than 700,000.

Related Topics: Congress

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  • stuartzechman

    Hmm…there’s something going on here…there seems to be some kind of a pattern…what could it be?
    .
    Texas the big winner…Arizona…Nevada…Florida…
    .
    Good news for Republicans? Really?
    .
    What do those states have in common?
    .
    What population is growing the fastest?
    .
    Just trying to put my finger on it…

  • http://elvisberg.wordpress.com Elvis Elvisberg

    But if the white people are still a large majority, and are drawing the district borders, Hispanic population growth might just wind up helping the GOP anyway.
    -
    Nate Silver seems to always be right about everything. Here’s his take: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/21/exurban-growth-should-bolster-g-o-p-in-congressional-redistricting/

    Democrats will benefit from growing Hispanic populations in some places, and some Republican-leaning rural districts in Farm Belt states like Iowa are losing population. Further, in the urban areas that are losing population, like Cleveland and New Orleans, the voters are so overwhelmingly Democratic that modest changes in boundaries will not harm Democrats much. But the trends should benefit Republicans over all, almost no matter how the new boundary lines are drawn.

  • stuartzechman

    Very interesting, thanks for the link/quote to Nate Silver.

  • kbanginmotown

    I think you meant “Michigan -1″ instead of “Mississippi -1″, Adam.

  • kbanginmotown

    psst…it’s the one shaped like a mitten…
    .
    oh, you got it!
    .
    thxkbai

  • 53_3

    Washington State:
    .
    +1

  • Art Pepper

    Will this become a fight over the 8th? The Stranger (or maybe the Weekly?) had an interesting article about this awhile back.

  • pelhamite1

    In the case of Florida, Nevada and Arizona, the rapidly growing Hispanic population appears set to “flip” those historically Republican leaning states toward the Democrats. Hispanics were the key to Democrats geting the majority of votes in Florida in 2000 (sigh) and 2008, they appear to have been the key to Harry Reid’s victory this year, and by all accounts, Arizona would have voted Democratic in 2008 save for its “favorite son” being on the ballot. So those are all states to feel good about, assuming the Democrat is presentable. Texas – well, God knows what is going on there, but the Anglo population there appears likely to keep it deep red for some time yet.

    .

    This may hurt the Democrats not so much because those states cannot be won, but rather because winning them will require yet more “tracking to the center”, which increases the pressure on the “center/left” divide within the Party that one sees evidence of on this site.

  • rdw56

    Actually the GOP, which controls most of the redistricting processes, is set to gain at least 6 house seats and probably more. Moreover Texas, Arizona, Utah, Georgia and SC are reliably Red. That’s a gain of 8 electoral votes. Look at the flip side NY, MI, MASS, IL and NJ are reliably blue, that’s a loss of 6 electoral votes.

    Liberals are vastly overstating the number of hispanics permanently democrat and also vastly overstating their birth rates. Another demographic mistake is understating the level of white births and the profile. Religious whites are far more likely to have kids and far more likely to have more than 2. That’s one reason Utah gained a seat. Secular liberals often remain single and if married childless.

    There has also been a shift in black birth rates as abortions have soared and dropped below replacement levels. There is no danger of whites losing very solid majorities.

  • rdw56

    But the trends should benefit Republicans over all, almost no matter how the new boundary lines are drawn.

    **************************************************

    This is because no matter the demographics ideology still matters and few Americans want to become the Europe so idealized by liberals. All polls consistently show conservatives in a 40-42% range and liberals in a 19-20% range. You just lost a decisive battle on tax rates despite the most liberal President since LBJ and before that FDR. We now live in the age of Reagan where even this liberal President agrees we need to simplify the tax code and lower marginal rates. He does not want to cap spending but it was his commission that put it on the table. In one of politics more delicious ironies we will almost certainly target the 18% levels under that world famous budget master, William Jefferson Clinton.

    While Harry Reid is using the dream act to drive hispanic support it was always going to fail as majorities in every ethnic group want secure borders. The flow of illegal immigrants has actually reversed due to the poor economy and the fence is going to be built. With the extreme violence in Mexico even Obama is doing more than ever. This house will ensure there will be more progress on the fence.

    Also a huge problem for many blue states such as CA, MI, IL and NJ is this house will block all attempts to send federal funds as bailouts. They’re going to have to solve their budget issues on their own. Christie has become a star for taking the problem on aggressively and will be the most successful. Gov Moonbeam doesn’t even know where to begin.

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