Crossing Class Lines In The Right’s Inflation Critique

Last night, I caught the tail end of Glenn Beck’s Fox News show. He was imploring his viewers to divest themselves of the extra things in their lives–have a garage sale, open an eBay account, etc.–and use the proceeds to invest in food storage. The reason, he argued, was the coming inflation that free-spending liberals and the money-printing Federal Reserve were foisting on the U.S. dollar, which would drive up the price of staples like bread and rice. There was something striking about this argument, which Noam Scheiber gets at in The New Republic today.

Once upon a time, the debate over inflation used to fall along class lines. Those with lots of money hated inflation, because it lowered the spending power of their capital. Those without a lot of money didn’t mind so much, since inflation ate away at their debts, making mortgage and credit card payments easier to pay. (Mild inflation can also spur investments, since no one wants to sit on a declining currency, jolting the economy and reducing unemployment.)

But in the current popular conservative debate, the benefits of inflation (your debts will be easier to pay off) are outweighed by the downsides of inflation, which have less to do with large bank accounts than basic consumables (eggs and milk will cost more). In the Beck discourse, inflation is an attack not on the money-hoarding aristocracy (the George Soros’ club), but on the working class, who are struggling to get by under the weight of an ever expanding government.

In Scheiber’s construct, this new approach is best explained by Sarah Palin, who has offered a Beck-like critique of the Federal Reserve’s recent quantitative easing. He writes:

What Palin is after here, of course, isn’t a debate over the finer points of interest-rate setting. It’s just the latest instance of her lashing out against meritocrats and intellectuals, whom she feels talk down to her and her fellow repositories of homespun wisdom. Palin has always practiced a kind of identity politics in which one’s views deserve privileged status by virtue of they’re not being informed by any specialized knowledge. Hers is a politics of resentment—resentment at being led by the sort of snobs who think governing requires expertise.

He compares this with the more traditional, egg-headed, gold-standard critique of the Federal Reserve, which he identifies with the Ron Paul/F. A. Hayek school of economics.

Stumping for his son last winter, Ron Paul announced his hope of leading an “intellectual revolution.” Both Pauls are steeped in the work of the Austrian economist F.A. Hayek; they lean heavily on the Hayekian idea that a small group of central planners (i.e., the Fed), no matter how sophisticated, can’t synthesize the vast amount of knowledge that’s diffused throughout the economy, leading to inefficient (or, worse, corrupt) decisions.

What is remarkable is that the Paul view and the Palin view are now singing the same tune. As Scheiber puts it, “Throughout American history, the affluent Pauls and the working-class Palinites have been blood enemies. The achievement of the modern conservative movement was to unite them in a general hostility to government.” Quite an achievement indeed.

And so, we as a nation calls for garage sales and seed bank purchases that run concurrently with calls for the Federal Reserve to stop concerning itself with lowering the unemployment rate. Those who have the most to gain from inflation–the heavily indebted–are encouraged to buy powdered milk and fear the faceless bureaucrats who might make their debts easier to pay. And those who have the most to lose from inflation–the very wealthy–can call themselves populists.

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  • http://elvisberg.wordpress.com Elvis Elvisberg

    The achievement of the modern conservative movement was to unite them in a general hostility to government.” Quite an achievement indeed.
    -
    It’s the Southern Strategy. White people were really mad that the federal government made them desegregate their schools. So the late-60s GOP yoked Triangle Shirtwaist-era rhetoric about leaving businesses to do whatever they wanted to everyman populism.
    -
    For all his dislike of elites, Nixon at least believed in rational policymaking. He would be shocked at the intellectual degeneracy of today’s GOP.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    I’m in debt right now. Roughly equivalent to the size of a small house. I have a car and a B.S. in Computer Science because of that debt.

    While what you say is true, that inflation would make that debt worth less overall and put in a better position it does ignore the sane and rational argument that inflation in price indices do not necessarily translate to an inflation in wages.

    I have a moderate buffer right now, which allows me to pay my debts, afford rent, transportation costs, food, and still save a bit afterwards. Sure, its not the comfort I imagined I’d be in after graduating college, but I can manage.

    What I likely can’t do right now is convince my employer to give me a raise. My company hasn’t given anyone a raise in three years. If the price of doing business and buying products increased, I’d be put in the position where saving was no longer an option, and if it got really bad I’d have to make some hard choices about what was really important in my life, the kind of choices a poor man makes.

    Sure, I could ask for a raise, and I would. I would have to. But I don’t think I’d get it.

    And I think that is the situation a lot of people are in right now and why this story is working on the right.

    It may be that my company does have enough money to give me a raise. But the owner doesn’t want the to give anyone a raise right now. And the managers, who aren’t getting raises aren’t going to give anyone else a raise either.

    We’re basically stuck. I can’t afford to risk my position in my company to seek a higher paying job & I can’t get a raise.

    I’m left to conclude inflation would be bad for me. Even as a liberal, I can’t see it helping me right now.

    A good stimulus, now that might shove us in the right direction. If the money started flowing more freely maybe my bosses wouldn’t be so worried and I could get that raise and inflation could occur naturally.

  • Buzz Feedback

    You’re really putting too much thought into this. It’s all about getting people riled up and scared. Palin and Beck need people to be afraid to keep their constituency.

  • http://elvisberg.wordpress.com Elvis Elvisberg

    Well, there’s the big picture, too, gumOnShoe– modest inflation would lead businesses that are holding onto cash because of reduced household spending to go ahead and invest.

  • http://twitter.com/michaelscherer Michael Scherer

    To be clear, the Fed is not trying to push 10 or 20 percent inflation. It is trying to get back to the historic norm for inflation, in other words the same sort of inflation we had before the financial crises. (There is a risk of greater inflation, but the likelihood is seriously debated.)
    .
    Here are some historical numbers:
    .
    http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/historicalinflation.aspx
    .
    Here are the current rates, which are well below the norm.
    .
    http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/us-inflation/mcpi.cfm
    .
    In a case where your milk/car/clothing prices suddenly doubled because of the Fed’s actions, the delay in your salary raising to compensate could hurt you. But if inflation returns to the norm–about 3 percent–that is unlikely to cause such a shock.
    .
    The other thing to consider is that much of the recent rise in commodity prices comes not from anything to do with the Fed creating more money, but from increased global demand, poor crops and speculation. It is not clear that those price increases could be stopped if the Fed pursued a different policy.

  • newfreedomblog

    Mr Scherer you make absolutely no sense what-so-ever.
    .

    “Those with lots of money hated inflation, because it lowered the spending power of their capital. Those without a lot of money didn’t mind so much, since mild inflation effectively eats away at their debts, making mortgage and credit card payments easier to pay. (Mild inflation can also spurn investments, since no one wants to sit on a declining currency, jolting the economy and reducing unemployment.)

    .
    Pretty much everything you cited in this paragraph is nothing short of the biggest fraud against people since the beginning of time.
    .
    The only true statement is that no matter how much money you have in the bank or your wallet, inflation eats away at it and makes your buying power less with inflation. Period. It is not a rich versus poor, if anything poor people are hit the hardest of all. Wages have not held up to the increase in cost of goods. This has been going on now for over 50 years. Prices continue to out-pace wages. And you make it sound like it is some little game out here. That Palin or Beck are nothing but kooks for making any statements at all about it.
    .
    The only winner in all of this is the government. The point is that liberal governments out spend those who are fiscally conservative. They get a write off of sorts when this happens because the cost of goods and services taxed goes up with inflation, thereby that puts more money in the Treasury to spend. But, in my mind this is all a wash too. Governments never hold spending, they just spend more each year.
    .
    Oh, and just so you know. Wholesale prices have been going up dramatically. Beck’s prediction is that the cost of basic goods will sky-rocket, and he is asking people to 1. Get out of debt. 2. Buy up staples now, because in a year or so things will be so costly due to the Fed spending (or, printing of money), our dollars will be worth significantly less. A significantly less valued dollar buys significantly less in real goods. The other fear is hyperinflation which can occur with all of the Feds printing presses running at full steam.
    .
    Combine hyperinflation with a less valued dollar and you have the average person in this country in dire straits. People will not be able to afford much of anything. It could get to the point that all of your resources could go to just paying for your next meal. Once you let this Gennie out of the bottle, the trick will be to put it back in again. Good luck on that one.
    .
    Better clean out your attic Scherer. Otherwise you might be eating your TIME magazines instead of writing in them.

  • np042

    Wages have not held up to the increase in cost of goods

    And who is behind this? Who constantly is against raising the minumum wage, or is even for lowering or doing away with the minumum wage?

    Wholesale prices have been going up dramatically

    Which, as adressed above, are not fully the result of inflation. There is increased demand and enviromental factors. The wildfires in Russia had a huge effect on the price of wheat for instance. None of which has anything to do with inflation.
    .
    On top of that, it fits perfectly in like for the likes of Beck to use scare tactics such as hyperinflation to get people talking about him and ratings. It just continues the fear mongering that the extreme-right vomits continuously:
    .
    Death pannels, 16,000 armed IRS agents, etc

  • http://prestopundit.wordpress.com/ Greg Ransom

    Hayek provides a _Free Banking_ critique of the Federal Reserve.

    Compare the work of Lawrence White or George Selgin.

    I’m guessing you are talking out of your hat on this topic.

  • allthingsinaname

    There will be inflation or the whole economy will collapses.
    .
    The point is that they want to be noticed and in the news, and here we are.

  • http://shortplaysaboutrealpeople.wordpress.com Michael Maiello

    Beck is just trying to scare people into buying a product made by one of his advertisers. But this, “Those who have the most to gain from inflation–the heavily indebted–are encouraged to buy powdered milk and fear the faceless bureaucrats who might make their debts easier to pay. And those who have the most to lose from inflation–the very wealthy–can call themselves populists.” Is very interesting.

    The truth is, average working people can be victimized by even modest inflation today, so long as wages remain stagnant. Usually modest inflation isn’t dangerous because wages keep up for exceed it. But global competition in the labor force has turned that upside down. 2% inflation isn’t so bad, unless you don’t get a raise this year.

    It’s also terrible for people on fixed incomes, of course and for people who are using bonds, CDs and money markets for income purposes in the current environment since interest rates are so low.

    I see what you’re saying, Michael and your larger point about the rhetoric sure is interesting. But the truth is, there is at present an inflation at work that can be quite damaging to working people. We have a major wage and income problem in America.

  • newfreedomblog

    “And who is behind this? Who constantly is against raising the minumum wage, or is even for lowering or doing away with the minumum wage?”

    .
    If you are at the level of minimum wages, you are indeed lost. Anyone who can survive these days solely on minimum wages is also dependent upon the Federal entitlement programs in order to survive.
    .
    Wages have been stagnant for the past 10 years because our government has been spending way too much money. Republicans as well as Democrats are guilty of all the spending. It has taken money out of the economy, thereby taking money out of our pockets for continued taxes, and not reinvested into the economy.
    .
    Not until spending is curtailed drastically shall we see our wages go up.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    Elvis: What those investments are greatly changes what the perceived benefits to employees are. Sure, they could pay us more, or they could invest in other companies, the stock market, or something that doesn’t directly benefit employees. I know that they are less likely to hold on to their money in the form of savings, ie raw dollars, but that doesn’t mean when they shift that money to another place they are going to shift it to people like me. I just don’t have that much faith in them to believe that would happen.
    ·
    - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - –
    ·
    I know the numbers, and I know the targets, and I’m not worried in general about massive inflation. A lot of us new workers weren’t hired at high rates. Even 3% inflation to a lot of us would be a stress. We were all forced to take either crappy hourly jobs, or jobs where we’re over tasked and underpaid, especially in comparison to our educational loans.
    ·
    Its kind of sad. I know a lot of home loans after the crash forced people underwater, and that they are in the same or a worse position straddled with kids and whatnot, but all of us graduates are automatically underwater for a minimum of 10, 20, or 30 years. I don’t like complaining about it because I did choose this, even if I was a stupid kid when I did; however, I don’t think that artificial inflation as a means to spur investment is going to be easy on us.
    ·
    Ultimately, while 3% means a lot of money to the rich. 3% to us down near the bottom means money we needed, especially if our wages don’t increase as I expect them too.
    ·
    The people who get raises will be the people who have shown *loyalty* over the years. Us newbies will be passed over and left to suffer for the next five years, and those of us who don’t completely collapse will suffer smaller wages than everyone else who came before or went after.
    ·
    I’ve seen the studies, done by liberal economists. I know its true. We’ll pay for the sins of our sires and the people after and before us will be well off in comparison. There’s nothing I can do about it. I understand that. And isn’t that sad?

  • http://elvisberg.wordpress.com Elvis Elvisberg

    We’re at the lowest level of core inflation ever: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/17/disinflation-continues/

  • http://elvisberg.wordpress.com Elvis Elvisberg

    “What those investments are greatly changes what the perceived benefits to employees are.”
    -
    Very true. I was imprecise with the word “invest.” I meant, spur projects that as of right now are being put off. You’re right that it’s no panacea.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    Our wages are stagnant due to our employers, not the government Rusty.
    ·
    Please draw me the picture of how the government spending loads of money it shouldn’t, while dropping taxes is somehow responsible for my company not giving me a raise or the others I know raises?
    ·
    If anything its avarice/greed of those at the top that prevent the rest of us from getting the money we need.

    Or maybe, prices really have risen to the point that our lifestyles aren’t economically feasible. But if that were the case, I’d think the rich should be hurting more than they are….

  • stuartzechman

    Rustydog:
    .
    Wages have been stagnant for the past 10 years because our government has been spending way too much money
    .
    Please don’t take this the wrong way, but…that’s insane.
    .
    That’s like saying “the earth is literally 6,000 years old.” It’s just lunacy.
    .
    Not until spending is curtailed drastically shall we see our wages go up.
    .
    To normal people familiar with economics, that sounds like “Not until a person whose name starts with the letter ‘R’ is appointed to chair the Federal Reserve shall we see our wages go up.
    .
    Actually, come to think of it, it sounds more like “Not until there is drastically less demand demand generated in the economy shall we see our wages go up.” It’s nonsensical. It’s “Not until it is false shall it be true.” territory.
    .
    If you were making the argument that mass unemployment is a function of where we are in a trade cycle, and that wages need to come down to their “natural” levels so that employers don’t lose money by hiring, that would be an economic argument –long discredited, but a real argument, circa 1910.
    .
    If you were making the argument that the only government program that can help unemployment is to reduce the power of unions, so that wages don’t remain “stuck” at “too-high” levels, in accordance with the above “markets clearing” theory, that would be an economic theory-based argument –long discredited, but a real argument, circa 1910.
    .
    You’re not making those kinds of arguments, Rustydog.
    .
    You are saying something that’s wildly, appallingly false.
    .
    I know that there has arisen in the past thirty years a special kind of ideologue in economics, the kind that told us there wasn’t a bubble, that asset prices were insanely high because…well, that’s what the prices were, so they must be “natural.”
    .
    But even most of these folks, people like Alan Greenspan, have been reasonably aware of their theory’s failings as of late.
    .
    People who say “Wages have been stagnant for the past 10 years because our government has been spending way too much money” are selling you quack economics out of a traveling wagon, Rustydog.
    .
    It’s chicanery, pure and simple.
    .
    Don’t fall for it, Rustydog. Try to understand where real economic theory begins, and ideological fanaticism ends.

  • stuartzechman

    This is a brilliant post, Michael Scherer.
    .
    Thank you.

  • grape_crush

    [To put that into simpler terms:]
    .
    “Turkey and the trimmings won’t cost much more this year than last, according to the Virginia Farm Bureau[...]
    .
    The bureau says it should cost $43.39 to serve a 16-pound turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, cranberries and peas for 10 adults. The price also includes a tray of carrots and celery, as well as pumpkin pie with whipped cream.
    .
    Virginia officials say its survey of grocery stores indicates all that food will cost on average 1 cent more this year than it did last year, when the cost of Thanksgiving dinner fell for the first time in three years.
    .
    In comparison, the American Farm Bureau said the average national cost of Thanksgiving dinner this year is $43.47, a 56-cent price increase from last year. The survey was first conducted in 1986 and is intended to be an informal gauge of price trends around the nation.[...]
    .
    Of course, where you get your food makes a difference. The bureau says the highest average cost was in Pound in Wise County, where dinner for 10 would cost $52.36. Bristol has the cheapest eats at $33.18.
    .
    When it comes to the bounty the bureau uses to figure the cost of a Thanksgiving meal, Bowles said the group uses the same meal every year to give meaningful cost comparisons.”

  • http://metricmash.wordpress.com metricmash

    Here are some more historical inflation charts that provide an interesting perspective -
    US Inflation Rate
    US Inflation Rate for Food At Home
    US Inflation Rate for All Items Less Food And Energy

  • grape_crush

    Agreed.

  • nflfoghorn

    “..That [Miss Prissy] or [Daffy Duck] are nothing but kooks…”
    .
    On that we heartily agree.

  • square1

    You are a stupid person, Rusty.
    .
    When inflation goes up, all things being equal, the prices of everything go up. That includes wages.
    .
    If your salary is stagnating (or decreasing) but the price of eggs, milk, etc. are increasing then the problem isn’t inflation. The problem is a decrease in the demand for labor.

  • nflfoghorn

    I cracked up on the phrase “Hayekian idea.”

  • square1

    What I can’t figure out is why nobody in the Democratic Party or the media is wise to Glen Beck’s game.

    Beck and the GOP are literally investing in pessimism and the failure of America. And Beck is simultaneously peddling profiteering to his fans.

    Like many right-wing media hacks, Beck tells his fans to buy gold. Then the GOP obstructs an economic recovery and relentlessly preaches that America is going to hell in a hand-basket.

    Interestingly enough, the economy stagnates, but gold goes up and Beck fans profit (as does Beck).

    The same is true of this inflation nonsense. Beck isn’t warning viewers about inflation. He is trying to drive it. He is encouraging pessimism and hoarding, which in turn will drive food prices up, validating Beck’s warnings.

    Beck’s fans who got in on the ground-floor of the hoarding frenzy will once again thank him for his wonderful advice.

    If this works, maybe he’ll trigger a run on banks for kicks. Beck is like a real-life version of the Joker, who gets off on spreading chaos.

  • shepherdwong

    Yes, insightful and informative. I’m gobsmacked.

  • http://shortplaysaboutrealpeople.wordpress.com Michael Maiello

    I agree. He’s showing a really good eye for how the discussion has changed over time.

  • shepherdwong

    Then the GOP obstructs an economic recovery and relentlessly preaches that America is going to hell in a hand-basket.
    .
    It’s another huge political story our political media can’t tell because it devastates all of their false narratives about the two parties. It turns out, Republicans would rather see the American economy in shambles and working class people suffer interminably if it will help them politically. There’s a word for allegiance against the interests of the Untied States for partisan and personal gain but the truth is far too shrill for the civil discourse required in the Village.

  • stuartzechman

    gumOnShoe:
    .
    I completely understand what you’re saying; it’s not hard (unless somebody isn’t trying) to understand why appeals to the evils of inflation work.
    .
    The thing is, though, that these appeals work because a big part of the picture is being left out –apparently deliberately, at least on the part of some folks with giant megaphones.
    .
    The important, missing fact is this:
    .
    If unemployment weren’t so high for so long, and it wasn’t a buyer’s market for employers, then there would be more of a shot at raises.
    .
    You can’t ask for a raise when you know that your employers are getting volumes of resumes every day from the vast army of the short-term and long-term unemployed.
    .
    Why should your employer give it to you, even if they have the cash?
    .
    Even if the cost of health insurance per employee were not going through the roof at the same time, even if there were not a new 1099 reporting requirement for businesses, even if there were not all of this constant, endless talk of new taxes and high deficits, it’s still an employer’s market.
    .
    That’s why inflation in everything else except wages is dangerous; because wages are being pressured lower and lower, and unemployment has been depression-era high for two years.
    .
    We also have ARM’s to blame, too.
    .
    Adjustable Rate Mortgages kill the helpful effects of inflation on debt-payers.
    .
    I know all of these people in my building, for example, who bought their apartments in the ’80s for $40,000, and who are paying off those loans in 2010′s dollars. These folks know all about how great inflation is for them. Fortunately for them, ARMs weren’t actually being sold in such quantity, and so their rates will never go up. Modern home-buyers weren’t so lucky. We’re now overwhelmed by foreclosures and defaults, and so the stories of the silly-looking debt on homes from twenty years, even ten years ago aren’t in folks’ minds.
    .
    There are so many examples, but I basically agree with you: it’s easier these days to sell the idea that inflation is living-standards death, and that it’s coming like we’re living in Weimar Germany, so as long as the government throws up its hands like Hoover did, and refuses to do a g*ddamn thing about unemployment or foreclosures.
    .
    Oh, lest I forget: it’s also an easier to sell to down, desperate people if one is a professional carnival barker who doesn’t feel the need to tell the whole truth about anything, and only works at connecting with people’s feelings and perceptions.

  • liberalmeltdown

    I disagree with the analysis of the critique of the Fed’s policy. Micheal Scherer contradicts himself several times. On one hand he claims that inflation acts to spur business to hire and expand due to a shrinking currency and then he claims that that same shrinking currency has NOTHING to do with prices of commodities rising. That’s an absolute falsehood and a complete contradiction. What’s it gonna be Michael? You cannot have it both ways.
    .
    Since we import most commodities and of course finished products, when our dollar is diminished in value, you get less for your buck. It’s that simple. No amount of denial can change that fact. Want to test it? Take a trip to Europe.
    .
    Also, Micheal you totally neglected to mention the biggest winner from inflation, moderate or high: THE GOVERNMENT.
    .
    * The Government – The most obvious beneficiary of higher inflation, at least in the short term, is the government. Since they control the printing presses, the government will always be able to pay its debt, at least domestically since higher inflation effectively reduces the long-term cost of borrowing money.
    * Borrowers – Anyone borrowing money for a long term for a fixed rate (such as a mortgage) benefits from inflation because, again, it effectively reduces the cost of future interest payments. That $2000 per month mortgage payment may seem like a lot today, but 20 years from now it will be worth a lot less. Your income will have risen to keep up with the constantly-increasing cost of living while your fixed-rate debt will have remained constant.
    * Owners Of Real Assets – Owners of real physical assets such as real estate, gold, timber, farm land, mines, etc tend to do very well during inflationary periods since the price of these assets (and the commodities they produce in the case of mines and farm and timber land) tends to rise along with inflation.
    .
    You also forgot to mention the biggest loser in the case of moderate to high inflation: People on fixed income and the poor.
    .
    People with money can hedge themselves with a variety of investments and can actually make money in a high inflation scenario. The poor don’t have the means to protect themselves.
    .
    As for Beck, he has an opinion. You can listen or not. He’s been right about gold and many other things. But what’s really absurd is the idea that Beck could manipulate the market with a few million viewers in a worldwide free market, unless your conspiracy extends to the Chinese being Glenn Beck fans.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    What is there to disagree with? It is a buyer’s market for employers. And while I agree the message on the right is too extreme, the core argument, the spirit of it if you will, or source is not necessarily incorrect. I disagree with Beck’s interpretation, but I see the same source of risk.
    ·
    We’re not looking at devastating inflation, but I think attempting to raise inflation may actually push us toward deflation and here’s how that argument goes:
    ·
    1) The recent economic crash was spurred by bad loans & over-leveraged individuals who could no longer afford their rent. Those loans were backed by individuals who didn’t own the risk and the systemic failure of the system ultimately caused a lot of harm. This was allowed to happen because the loans became too expensive and the cost of living was rising faster than expected, especially when you figure in fuel prices. With wages not rising, the lower middle class crumbled under their obligations and then the bad trades exacerbated matters.
    ·
    2) We’ve not recovered because there isn’t enough demand for items, and while demand is slowly rising & employment it isn’t rising quickly. We aren’t necessarily out of the woods. It is far more important for unemployment to drop right now. If it doesn’t wages will remain stagnant.
    ·
    3) While wages remain stagnant, if inflation occurs we run the risk of putting people who are still over-leveraged back in danger of defaulting on their loans. A lot of those loans really haven’t disappeared. There’s still plenty of room for more people to fail or use credit cards that haven’t gone away to get themselves back into trouble or at the very least shriveling demand. While I couldn’t see it being as bad or drastic as the initial fall, quantitatively, given the state of the economy it certainly might turn us back to a point where hiring disappears, demand shrivels, and we go back to a deflationary cycle where people get laid off because things aren’t selling and because people are laid off demand falls yet again.
    ·
    I can’t help but seeing the possibility of a real depression should inflation proceed employment & wage gains.

  • liberalmeltdown

    Here watch the cartoon. Then you will actually know something:
    .

  • np042

    He’s been right about gold and many other things

    This might be true, if he was peddling an actual investment. Instead he is peddling grossly marked-up, numismatic coins. For the acutal melt-value of these coins, it would take years for someone to see any return on them. (By then of course, if gold has continued to go up to those levels, there are a host of other issues to worry about as well.)
    .
    The other issue is the fact that you can find the same gold coins that are being peddled by Beck (from Goldline) for hundreds of dollars cheaper at competitors.

  • piper1

    “Wages have been stagnant for the past 10 years because our government has been spending way too much money.”
    .
    Its been 30 years that wages have been stagnant, but, ya know, whose counting? I suppose the 30 year time frame makes it a little more difficult to whitewash the role that Reaganomics has played in the gutting of the American middle class and the subsequent economic calamities. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/jun2007/wage-j16.shtml

  • stuartzechman

    Here watch the cartoon. Then you will actually know something else:
    .

  • shepherdwong

    Here watch the cartoon. Then you will actually know something else:
    .
    I’ll take that bet.

  • http://twitter.com/michaelscherer Michael Scherer

    No contradiction. Here are the facts: It is well documented that low interest rates, the goal of the fed action, can spur investment. Inflation, which has been running below historical norms, can also spur investment.
    .
    The pressures on commodity prices in recent months have, according to most analysis, had far less to do with currency fluctuations than increased global demand, decreased supply and speculation. It is possible that future inflation could increase the prices of these commodities, if we get significant inflation. But there is no clear indication that it has happened yet, or that it is presently the major concern of those worried about the price of milk or eggs.

  • http://jcapan.wordpress.com jcapan

    Agreed that Scherer does good work here. To compensate, how many Palin posts await us?

    But this story: “Throughout American history, the affluent Pauls and the working-class Palinites have been blood enemies. The achievement of the modern conservative movement was to unite them in a general hostility to government.”

    Is not complete without documenting neoliberal abandonment of labor. By ceding (economic) populism to the right, by cozying up to big business, they allowed this unity to happen. We can blame the GOP and “objectivity” fail of the press but if there’s to be a solution we have to know the f@cking enemies among us.

  • apr2563

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/19/AR2010101906085.html?wpisrc=nl_politics
    .
    “A movement of the plutocrats, by the political professionals, and for the powerful.” TP populism.

  • stuartzechman

    Thank you so very much for responding to commentary, Michael Scherer, it is very, very appreciated, along with this extraordinary, excellent post.

  • herby002

    It’s also about money: Beck gets a cut of the sales of the “emergency food packages” that *his sponsor* sells to his acolytes – similar to his pushing them to buy “emergency gold coins” from *his sponsor*.

  • herby002

    No, he’s not advising people to put aside a bag of rice or flour for a year because staples will cost more next year. He’s warning them that they must buy his sponsor’s emergency prepared food packages, in bulk, to tide them over the coming collapse of American civilization. Then, when they come out of their subdivision fortresses, they can use the gold coins they bought from his sponsor to buy replacement supplies and ammunition from like-prepared Beck survivors, since gold will be the only surviving “currency” with any value.

    Pomoting fear is profitable.

  • herby002

    Thanks, apr2563. Another good link.

  • http://kiraisjustice.wordpress.com kiraisjustice

    GumOnShoe:

    A stimulus won’t save us. We’re already spending significantly more than is good for our economy.

    Whenever the government spends money, whether in an attempt to spur economic growth or not, that money has to come out of the economy somehow. Either the money is raised through taxes and taken directly out of the economy, or the money is borrowed and ties up money that would otherwise be invested in new business growth (and then hits again harder when it has to be paid for with taxes), or the money is printed and causes inflation, driving down the purchasing power of consumers and reducing their economic activity.

    That’s not to say that all government spending is bad, but there is an upper limit to how much spending is good for an economy, especially if that money is being spent in an attempt to stimulate further growth. Most government spending is inefficient from the standpoint of creating economic growth. Some government services, such as providing transportation and education, enable more economic activity than they detract, up to a point. When government builds a highway between two cities that were not connected, the new economic activity from goods, services, tourism, etc. moving from place to place is often more than enough to cover the cost of the highway. However, when we start building 400 million dollar bridges to small towns with no major industry, the new economic activity created is significantly less than the amount that goes into creating the bridge. Spending money on education helps train new workers and is beneficial when we spend that money efficiently; when we have the federal government trying to operate on top of state governments, each with their own bureaucracy, where state and local school districts spend as much money trying to meet arbitrary federal standards as they receive from the federal government, we wind up wasting a lot of money and spending far more than it should take to provide a sufficient education.

    Scherer: It’s a nice idea that inflation spurs investment and job growth, and in the short term it can do that. However, long term, inflation does far more to destroy job growth than deflation.

    Inflation often happens naturally when we have a strong economy. When people have more money, they are willing to spend more, and when people have less, they are willing to spend less, so inflation often appears slightly higher during economic booms while deflation often happens as a result of bubbles bursting and recessions setting in. This does not mean inflation is a cause of strong economies, or that deflation is a cause of weak economies; a strong or weak economy causes a certain level of inflation or deflation, which is then modified by other factors. When inflation happens based on economic growth, inflation is generally negative; it prevents people from buying as much value worth of goods and services for the same amount of money, and serves to dampen economic growth. When deflation happens based on economic decline, it is generally a positive, allowing people to buy more value worth of goods and services for the same amount of money and dampening the negative impact of economic decline.

    When inflation is caused by printing money, reducing interest rates, or increasing the percentage/multiplier of funds on hand that banks are allowed to loan out, we see a different effect. The new currency being injected into the economy spurs investment in new industries almost immediately as the currency becomes available. However, as that currency reduces the value of the currency held by consumers, and reduces the purchasing power of people on fixed incomes and salaries with limited growth potential, it reduces economic activity by preventing people from purchasing the same value in goods and services. In addition, because people are able to save less (and have less incentive to do so), there is less currency available to invest, forcing government to create more inflation to keep the investment happening to counteract the decrease in purchasing power and savings available to loan which is being caused by inflation.

    When deflation happens based on fluctuations in the money supply, such as would happen if we switched to a gold standard, the opposite happens. We see an immediate drop in investment and even job creation due to a tightening of the money supply. However, the resulting deflation allows people on fixed incomes and salaries with little growth potential to purchase more while still putting more aside for savings, you see an increase in economic activity which helps to counteract the reduction in investment, and over time you see far more money put into savings and made available to be loaned out and invested in new business enterprises. While a high rate of deflation has the potential to cause a severe enough recession to make it difficult for an economy to recover, a slow and steady rate of deflation will cause more than enough long term growth to be worth the negative short term effects.

    Considering that we got ourselves into this “great recession” by an entire decade of short term economic practices like defecit spending, cutting interest rates, and encouraging excessive loaning and borrowing, we need a long term solution, not a short term solution. We need the type of government that a Ron Paul or a Gary Johnson would provide, a government where we would cut the 43% of the budget that we’re currently borrowing because our spending has exceeded revenue and where we would move to sound currency, restore both investor AND consumer faith in our economy, and cause long term job growth through sound economic policies rather than jumping from one quick fix to the next until we’re in a hole so deep we can’t dig ourselves out anymore.

  • liberalmeltdown

    Michael, when you say things like most analysis or experts, who and what are you referring to? Is your financial adviser Pee Wee Herman?
    .
    http://in.reuters.com/article/idINSGE69O0BP20101025
    .
    COMMODITIES-Weak dollar leads commodities higher
    .
    SINGAPORE, Oct 25 (Reuters) – Commodities stormed higher on Monday, supported by a sharp fall in the dollar, with the complex led by gains in base metals, which surged to multi-month peaks, and strength in grains.

    London base metals rose by an average of 2.5 percent, with copper at its strongest since a July 2008 record, while lead and zinc hit their highest in nine months. Oil too rose, gaining $1, and Chinese markets blossomed, with corn, rubber and cotton all hitting record highs.

    The dollar fell almost 1 percent after a Group of 20 meeting found common ground on the need for more “market oriented” exchange rates, and focus shifted back to a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting on Nov. 1-2 that could result in the central bank printing money to buy assets.

    “The dollar is softer, and commodities are predictably moving higher. The G20 meeting generated a bit of uncertainty late last week, but there weren’t any shockers, so we are picking up the rally where we left off,” a trader in Singapore said.

    “The focus is back on the risk that the Fed will add to the money supply next week so the story isn’t limited to base metals. The positive mood is running through grains, oil and gold, too.”

    The benchmark London Metal Exchange forward contract touched $8,549 a tonne, its strongest since the record $8,940 struck in July 2008 at the height of the commodities boom.

    LME zinc and lead extended Friday’s gains to touch their highest in nine months, both at $2,600, while Shanghai zinc rallied by its 5 percent limit.

    Away from metals, oil rose by $1.30 to $82.99 a barrel on the dollar’s losses, with attention on a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke later in the day.

    Commodity investors will look for clues about how much Treasury debt the U.S. central bank is likely to buy in a highly anticipated move to pump money to shore up economy.

    More Fed easing is likely to depress the dollar, and spur additional long commodity-short dollar trades, which have paid off handsomely since the start of October.

    AND AGAIN:
    http://www.sentracommerce.com/
    .
    THE DOLLAR MOVES INVERSELY TO COMMODITY PRICES

    A rising dollar is noninflationary. As a result a rising dollar eventually produces lower commodity prices. Lower commodity prices, in turn, lead to lower interest rates and higher bond prices. Higher bond prices are bullish for stocks. A falling dollar has the exact opposite effect; it is bullish for commodities and bearish for bonds and equities. Why, then, can’t we say that a rising dollar is bullish for bonds and stocks and just forget about commodities? The reason lies with long lead times in these relationships and with the troublesome question of inflation.

  • liberalmeltdown

    How catchy. That was a pathetic attempt.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    You’re right about a stimulus needed to be targeted to make a difference. Here’s a stimulus that would change how America works:
    ·
    The U.S. government could invest heavily in companies which are trying to produce new products that would make our country more efficient and give it a greater technological advantage of some sort.
    ·
    Beyond infrastructure we could be investing in gene research, green energy, battery development, and manufacturing industries to create new niches of manufacturing jobs for products which only we could provide, I’m sure there are some out there.
    ·
    If you did want to invest in infrastructure, the high way system and bridges that need fixed would certainly need some attention, but the best thing you could do for this country is high speed rail. Its something that doesn’t really exist right now, but something that could be very useful. There’s no real high speed rail connecting cities. It would drastically reduce manufacturing costs bottom lines, and it would give people an alternative green way to travel, and there are plenty of ways to dump into it and get a profit out of it.
    ·
    The other thing that might be good for our country is investing in sciences education, since every scientist will tell you we don’t have enough anymore and science leads the way.
    ·
    It all depends on where the money goes.

  • liberalmeltdown

    One more time Michael. The currency market is the LARGEST market in the world. Hence, the other markets take their cues from the currency market, NOT the other way. Please correct your mistake.

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