Say what you want about Niccolò Machiavelli. He’s the champion of chicanery, the sultan of schemes. But the 16th-century author of The Prince, a how-to guide for the power-hungry, also identified the political truths that dominated the midterm elections earlier this month. And more often than not he didn’t just say it first — he said it best.
Take this warning he gives about coming to power with the help of a particularly passionate subset of society: “Princes who have recently acquired a state with the help of a faction within it … should weigh the reasons that might have moved this faction to support them. If it is not natural affection toward the prince that made it favor him, but rather discontent with the former government, it will be only with much toil and difficulty that the prince will maintain these malcontents as his allies, because it will be impossible to satisfy them.”
The same thing has been said a hundred different ways about the Tea Party propelling the Republicans to victory this year (and, to a lesser extent, about the Democrats who succeeded by turning their backs on the Beltway). Meanwhile, 29 million Obama voters didn’t show up for the midterm elections, exit polls showed — despite much campaigning on the President’s part.
Another Machiavellian insight speaks to the GOP’s ability to reclaim in 2010 traditionally red seats they lost to Democrats in 2006 and 2008. “States that are hereditary and tied to the bloodline of their prince are easier to maintain than new ones,” Machiavelli wrote. “If such a prince is of at least average ability he can retain his position of power, so long as no extraordinary or excessive force deprive him of it. If this prince is deprived of his state, he will find he can reacquire it if any misfortune befalls the usurper.”
Obama was certainly an extraordinary force. And the Democratic “usurpers” are the ones like Bobby Bright in Alabama or Betsey Markey in Colorado. Their misfortune was having to defend tough Democratic stances – or at least stand up for an unpopular party in a district where they were unpopular from the start.
Machiavelli also could have predicted the post-election scorn for Meg Whitman and the other candidates who spent big before losing big. “The wish to acquire is a most natural thing, and men who manage to acquire are always applauded (or at least not blamed) when they succeed. What is an error and worthy of blame is when a man cannot acquire something, but desires to obtain it in any way he can.”
Take this Washington Post blogger’s comments: “Meg Whitman spent an astounding $175 million of her own dough just to get trounced by former governor.” Had she won, the world would have missed an awful lot of similar post-election smugness. (And is a loss of 53% to 41% really a trouncing?) Out of the hundreds of losing candidates this election season, Whitman, Carly Fiorina and Linda McMahon got an inordinate amount of ink because, as Machiavelli points out, people are hungriest to blame those losers who did things others wouldn’t in order to win and still failed.
The list of trends Machiavelli could have foretold this election season goes on. Like the enthusiasm gap between disgruntled Tea Party-ers and Democrats: “When enemies of the new order find any chance to attack the prince, they will attack him in full force, while men who benefit from the new order will defend him halfheartedly.” Or that the Delaware GOP’s nomination of Christine O’Donnell, an attractive lady with unattractive skeletons in her closet, was bound to end in tears: “Man’s scant prudence will make him relish a dish that appears delicious while it conceals poison within.”
That spending cuts would be a resurgent political winner: “A wise prince … must not mind acquiring a reputation for miserliness. With time he will come to be considered generous once people see that his parsimony has produced sufficient funds.” Or that a business-friendly message still sells: “He must also make certain that his citizens can go about their work unhampered — in trade, agriculture, and all the other professions — so that no one will be afraid of accumulating possessions out of fear that they might be taken away, or afraid of starting a business for fear of taxes.”
And the GOP would do well to remember that Machiavelli’s insights will apply to 2012 as well as 2010. As he said, “You cannot keep the friendship of those who helped you to power, since you cannot satisfy them in the way they had envisioned.”