In the Arena

Iraq Moves Forward

The press reports about Iraq’s new government have things backwards: before some Sunni Delegates staged their walkout, the parliament actually voted for a new government in Iraq–a solid government, including all factions (including Ayad Allawi’s secular shi’ite/Sunni coalition). The final deal was cut, I am told, by the three main principals–Allawi, Prime Minister Malaki and the Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani. The fourth person in the room was U.S. Ambassador Jim Jeffrey. That is significant: the final Iraqi government reflected U.S. hopes for a true coalition, not Iran’s desires for Shi’ite domination.

Since this is Iraq, the chances of the coalition falling apart are not minimal. There will be walkouts, various huffings and puffings. Sunni extremists are still igniting themselves, to the disgust of the vast majority of Iraqis. Iran will continue to have a major influence in Iraq. But Basra, the oil port, is booming–and there is hope for a stable future. And the Kurds role in bringing the Sunnis to the table bodes well for the nettlesome negotiations over who should control the northern oilfields, perhaps the tensest flashpoint in the country.

Yes, this came after a terrible war that should never have been fought. But there’s enough bad news in the world. This is good news. Pocket it. Exhale.

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  • michaelfury

    “But there’s enough bad news in the world.”

    Of course. No need to trouble your “beautiful minds” with it.

    “Pocket” this, Mr. Klein:

    http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2010/11/11/circle-ix/

  • afguy

    … the final Iraqi government reflected U.S. hopes…
    .
    Hasn’t that been the goal (and part of the problem) all along, Joe? That their government (and decisions) have to jibe with what we want/visualize in order to be seen as “legitimate”?
    .
    Is THAT why we seem to see the need for a continual presence there for the forseeable future – so that their governmental path (and economic policies regarding their oil) will continue to reflect “our” hopes” and expectations?

  • Joe Klein

    Sorry, Af–but this was a decision that Afghan parties reached on their own, facilitated but not coerced by U.S. diplomats. The fact is, this makes it far more likely that the last U.S. troops will leave Iraq at the end of 2011, on schedule.

  • afguy

    Thanks for the reply.
    .
    I think you meant Iraqi parties rather than Afghan…
    .
    I guess coercion and facilitation mean different things at different times. I just remember our reaction when Hamas elected a government that wasn’t to our liking. Our response was hardly “that’s just democracy at work…”
    .
    And will all the troops leave Iraq in 2011 or simply have their mission adjusted to an “advisory” rather than combat role, having to remain just the same, so that the pols can claim that all “combat” troops have been brought home? Definition of our mission there is more than a little “black and slippery” at the moment. Remember, the war’s already been declared to be over… and, guess what, we supposedly won.
    .
    Color me more than just slightly skeptical… and more than a little cynical at this point.

  • afguy

    Sorry, that should be “Hamas elected as a governing party”… the Palestinians chose.

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    afguy
    .
    I’ve always thought the US was in Iraq to stay–if only because the US would not want Iraq to arm itself sufficiently to be secure from Iranian attack. That is, the air and armor would always be US air and armor.
    .
    When I talked to Juan Cole about this last June, (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/virtuallyspeaking/2010/06/04/virtually-speaking-with-jay-ackroyd-juan-cole) he said that the Iraqis really do want the US out, and they won’t tolerate the US remaining after 2011.
    .
    As far as armor goes, he said they’ve been acquiring it for themselves.

  • afguy

    I agree. Mainly because our history of arming one side or the other in that part of the world has always come back to bite us. Guns and missiles given to our “allies” at one point always seem to end up being used AGAINST us a generation later.
    .
    Do our leaders REALLY understand that they don’t want us there any longer – or do they think that, between now and then, we’ll be able to convince them of the error of their logic if it’s in OUR interests to remain longer?

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    Juan was pretty persuasive in that conversation. You might find it interesting.
    .
    I have moderated my view away from “they built bases for 50K. 50K are there to stay.” based on that convo.

  • rdw56

    This doesn’t make any sense. Why wouldn’t the US want Iraqi,and everyone else in the region, to be able to defend itself from attack by Iran? Isn’t that called containment? Isn’t that a neat way to drive arms sales?

    That arms sales typically end up biting us is flat out wrong. We sell huge amount of arms to the Sauds, Jordanians,Jews, Egyptians, Emerits, Indians, etc.

  • rdw56

    Does this mean the surge worked?

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    http://www.juancole.com/2008/07/social-history-of-surge.html
    .
    Ethnic cleansing was what “worked.”

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    [Shrug]
    .
    Listen to Juan. Tell me what you think he says that is wrong. He persuaded me I was not sufficiently informed on the subject.

  • rdw56

    No it was the change in tactics that worked. Iraq is now safer for the soldiers than Fort Hood. It will be recognized as one of the most successful shifts in tactics in the history of warfare. Petraeus and the military were brilliant and credit goes to Bush for the decisive decision and his legislative acumen is forcing a Democrat Congress to approve.

  • rdw56

    I don’t disagree with Cole. They want us out and we want out. I disagree with the assertion we wanted to stay there forever and wanted Iraq defenseless against Iran. That’s nonsense.

    I’ve never found Cole convincing.

  • rdw56

    ‘Harry Got My Goat’
    November 12, 2010 2:30 P.M.
    By Robert Costa

    In Decision Points, his new memoir, former president George W. Bush avoids being critical of numerous political foes. “The tone of the book is meant to reflect how I think; I’m not a hateful guy,” he says.

    Still, in an interview earlier today, Bush acknowledged that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid irked him during his presidency. “Harry got my goat for this reason: We’re sending troops into harm’s way and a leader says, ‘You men and women are marching into a lost cause.’ Yeah, I called him out on that; it is irresponsible behavior.”

    “That’s not what leaders do,” Bush says. “He can disagree with the policy, but what you don’t do is condemn some mother’s child into fear of a war that’s lost.”

    *******************************************************

    War in general and Iraq in particular has been a bleeding sore for liberals. It is disappointing the tea party upset the GOP plan in Nevada but if there’s one race that in losing would have a silver lining it’s Reid staying as majority leader. He is a sleezy man and the there area dozen clips of him acting badly. This is among the worst.

    Bush has been coming across very well and showing class and restraint. Even here. Joe could not and will not actually write the words the ‘surge worked’ but this is an acknowledgment.

  • stuartzechman

    Thank you so very much for responding to commentary, Joe Klein, it is greatly appreciated.

  • kbanginmotown

    *sigh*
    .
    WWI > Wilson
    WWII > Roosevelt
    Korea > Truman
    JFK/LBJ > Vietnam
    .
    With the obvious exception of ‘Nam, liberals have indeed shown that they can kick @ss and take names when the situation calls for it.
    .
    Sadly, W and his con/neocon enablers didn’t heed the lessons of Vietnam, and our country, minus about 4000 of its finest, have had the misfortune of repeating it. *That* is the USA’s “bleeding sore” in Iraq.

  • afguy

    War in general and Iraq in particular has been a bleeding sore for liberals.
    .
    No, it’s the unnecessary wars that we have problems with. What’s an “unnecessary” war? Well, one that isn’t important enough to get EVERYONE involved in.
    .
    Too many of the loudest cheerleaders for this one are those who found it inconvenient to sign up and participate in the ones conducted in the past.
    .
    When support for the fighting has to take a back seat to one’s personal educational, business or wealth acquisition plans, its importance can probably be called into question.
    .
    If a campaign is not vital enough to fund and pay for out in the open, so we all can get an idea of its costs (both fiscal and in human resources), well, you have to question who’s reaping the benefits of the action.

  • rdw56

    There is a huge difference between liberals in the post-68 era versus the prior era. JFK was to the right of GWB and Reagan. We are talking about the PC metrosexuals of the modern era. Let Joe Klein represent the classical image of the modern liberal man. Well educated, sophisticated, generally wealthy, sensitive, nuanced, never served, never considered it, and so politically correct he’s essentially had his spine removed. He suffers from the fact the French don’t approve of us. It would never occur to a conservative to seek the approval of the French. Joe wouldn’t wipe his ass without their approval.

  • rdw56

    Sadly, W and his con/neocon enablers didn’t heed the lessons of Vietnam,

    ***********************
    Actually he did. The lesson was, “This time we win”. And we won the Patton way. “The idea isn’t to die for your country. The idea is to get those bastards to die for theirs”. GBWs appointment of Petraeus and implementation of the surge will be legendary as regards military decisions.

    As hard as liberals like Joe tried to make this and Afghanistan into Vietnam they never came close. The Defense Dept very wisely allowed about as many embeds as possible totally altered the reporting of the far removing the ability of the MSM to drive any narrative. They tried out the term ‘quagmire’ 1,000 times and it failed 1,000 times. The surge was absolutely fascinating as an example of a radical shift in tactics made all the more impressive but the detailed planning in advance by Petraeus and his team. The detailed blue print made it easy to evaluate the execution which as so impressive in the field.

    One of the reasons I think the SBVs were so successful is they provided a picture of kerry the man and the MSM as journalist during the Vietnam war. The clip of kerry testifying before Congress accusing his fwllow vets of serious war crimes, accusations that were pure hearsay, was devastating. Americans of a certain age knew that smear of the Vietnam Vet was standard boilerplate for liberal reporters like Joe Klein for decades. But after desert storm and all of the scenes of Afghanstan and Iraq that Americans have seen on the internet and Fox that liberal narrative of the troops is now reviled. Kerry came off as a sanctimonious fool playing to the audience.

    It took Joe more than 6months after the fact to admit the surge worked. Few Time readers know how it worked. They think it’s because we added 30K troops. In fact we changed the tactics dramatically of the 135K already there and that was the driver. It was a riveting story of courage and accomplishment by incredible people. The fact we found out despite Time not reporting it explains why the polls for the military are up near 70% and for the MSM somewhere near 17%.

  • rdw56

    Too many of the loudest cheerleaders for this one are those who found it inconvenient to sign up and participate in the ones conducted in the past
    *****************************************

    I’ve never quite figured this criticism out. Intellectually speaking the logic is daft. Presuambly the point is because Cheney didn’t serve in Vietnam he should not be able to serve as VP and/or not be allowed to advise on war. It’s incoherent just on the fact we have a civilian commander in chief and civilian oversight. But even dumber is the fact the people making this point voted for Bill Clinton and revere FDR. Bill Clinton scammed his draft board and FDR led WWII despite never having served. If it was OK for Bill to serve as CinC it’s OK for anyone.

  • rdw56

    Well, one that isn’t important enough to get EVERYONE involved in.

    ********************

    Not quite sure if this is a lament about the draft. If so this is a delicious irony. I waited for my draft number in 1971 so I always thought the idea of a professional army and the end of the draft a great idea. Send the people who want to go. They’ll do better. Liberals supported the volunteer army with gusto. They’d never have to go. The irony is this, the anti-war effort was based largely on the angst of the draft. It made people angry and anxious just on it’s own merits. In eliminating the draft the left lost it’s main engine of outrage. Moreover, and this might be worse for them, The US military became far more powerful because they are all professionals. They are an outstanding force with amazing capabilities and highly adaptable able to fully maximize our technological advantages. Which seem to grow every day.

    Think about that. The anti-war protesters were a grab bag of left wing circus acts. They were not just useless but counter productive. The 1st several efforts I saw at generating protest on campus were hilarious. It was series of graybeard professors trying to recall their salad days of the 60′s protests along with a tiny contribution from the kids actually going to school. What me worry? Why? I’m not getting drafted. The professors were full of crap to begin with. The so called protest movement was in fact a fraction of the size it seems to be remembered as.

  • herby002

    rdw,

    You have the floor. Too bad you shat on it.

  • afguy

    The irony is this, the anti-war effort was based largely on the angst of the draft.
    .
    No, the objections were based on the barn-sized loopholes in the draft laws that allowed well-connected children to enter the Guard and Reserves (or CG) rather than serve on active duty in a branch of service. That allowed draft-eligible men to marry and impregnate their wives or girlfriends and thus earn a legal exemption from serving.
    .
    This is NOT about Cheney per se, although he’s the poster boy for such. My church has more than a few who freely admit that is how they avoided the draft and are rather proud of it. In many cases, the draft board members were in on the action too, telling them to make sure they were notified when the wife’s pregnancy was confirmed. These are among the most enthusiastic of the present conflict’s supporters.
    .
    The colleges were hip-deep in Business and Liberal Arts majors during the ’60s, filled with draft-age children whose main education objective was to keep the minimum GPA needed to keep that cherished 2S draft classification.
    .
    As for sending just the ones that want to go because they’ll do a better job, I’ve been hearing that one for years. It’s amazing how quickly one can find that their particular skillset doesn’t include being a warrior when it’s voluntary and there’s a good chance of being injured or killed. I’m also sure the present ‘professionals’ signed up knowing that they were particularly suited to multiple deployments, “Stop Gap”, broken marriages and homes, and psychological breakdowns due to overdeployment around violence and death, just so people like you don’t have to do something they don’t want to.
    .
    Don’t ry to hang this around the necks of liberals, rdw.
    .
    Right-wingers are some of the greatest
    supporters of courses of military action requiring sacrifice by others.

  • afguy

    Presidents don’t get to start wars on their own. Congress is supposed to provide oversight and be convinced that a war is necessary enough to declare it. Hopefully, by actually giving them the info to make an informed decision, rather than browbeating them into a vote for hostilities by questioning their patriotism or backbone.
    .
    When you have enough people who have experience with the violence of war and have known others lost during one (or lost family members themselves), they will tend to think long and hard before getting into another one.
    .
    Your examples of Dem presidents who didn’t serve so the experience is meaningless just strikes me as more of “but the Dems do it too”.
    .
    I tend to thnk that the ethnic cleansing had a lot to do with the drop in violence in Iraq, too. The kids over ther did their duty as asked.
    .
    You seem to have a “hard-on” regarding Petraeus, as your “legendary” thresh-hold seems rather low. If you want to talk about legendary military men, try George C. Marshall on for size. Too important to put in charge of D-Day, needed for the entire war effort. Helped win WWII in a fraction of the time we have been in Afghanistan and Iraq and managed to oversee a peace process that left the Japaness and Germans as friends, NOT life-long enemies. Served as Secretary of State and won the Nobel Peace Prize for the Marshall Plan.
    .
    When Petraeus does a fraction of that, THEM you can call him “legendary”. Until then, he’s just another high-ranked Army officer with political aspirations – another Alexander Haig.

  • pintortwo

    ..late to the party..
    .
    Juan Cole has a different take on events, worth a read:
    .
    Iran-backed al-Maliki Tapped to form Government in Iraq (link)
    .
    This outcome is the one Iran wanted. The Obama administration isn’t entirely displeased, since by now almost any government would be better than none. But this result was not the one Washington would have prefered. It would have liked Allawi to be prime minister, or at least to be far more powerful. And the hope that a national security committee will be powerful enough to offset the prime minister may be no more than a pious wish.
    .
    As the US withdraws its troops over the next year, Iran’s favorable position in Iraq will now likely be strengthened.

  • pintortwo

    ..and for what it’s worth, imo, the US has no intention of leaving Iraq. We’ve spent trillions building those bases, they are to be used to pivot troops, supplies and equipment throughout the region. We’ll draw-down, but keep a fairly robust presence and have civilians at the State Dept run things. Remember, when planning the invasion, the neocons had every intention of using Iraq to police the region for decades. We’re still in the early stages.

  • rdw56

    praising petraeus for his brilliant tactical shift and rewritiing the rules of counter insurgency takes nothing away from Marshal. They are two very different men with very different skill sets from very different eras. Marshal was an administrator not a military tactician That doesn’t belittle his contribution either. His contributions were great. His acceptance of FDRs request he stay in DC as his right hand rather than lead in Europe essentially ceded the Presidency to Ike. He did it for love of country. What a great man.

    I find the annoyance of liberals with Petraeus shockingly partisan. It’s a bitter pill for Joe to swallow that GWB made such a historic decision but I also think there’s a real jealousy the military has regained it’s high stature especially in light of the contempt many have for the press. The fact is Petraeus is a legend for an amazing accomplishment and he is not going into politics.

    You might want to note he’s got the ability to put his stamp on the military for generations. I think this is his 5th year as head of the promotions board. The problem in Iraq was old school big army thinking of the type championed by bureaucrats like Colin Powell. Petraeus understands the #1 job of the army is to find the enemy and kill them. Every General and Colonel appointed the last 5 year is in this mold.

  • rdw56

    afguy,

    you make my point on the draft. It was despised on a dozen levels. My point about the modern army is so much that it is volunteer but that it is professional. The anti-war crowd was never more than a weird zoo for both reasons. Absent the angst of a draft (including the outrage of the well connected avoiding it) and including the pride of most Americans in their competence and courage, it was virtually impossible for the MSM to dent that very positive public opinion. The shocking amount of press devoted to abu grahib had virtually no impact in this country. It fed the anti-war, anti-american left and then of course the French but the average American knew it was a rare abberation and an event created by fewer than 10 men.

    It was surrounded by so much weirdness the left in their over the top cries essentially formed another firing squad. It was another of dozens of examples of liberals stating in one sentence Bush mastermined it and then in the next Bush was as dumb as a bag of rocks. The incoherance of the left was GWBs greatest ally.

  • rdw56

    When you have enough people who have experience with the violence of war and have known others lost during one (or lost family members themselves), they will tend to think long and hard before getting into another one.

    *******************************************

    Another of those weird liberal truisms that have no basis in reality and defy common sense. To suggest any president would send brave young men to their deaths without thinking long and hard is preposterous.

    There’s also rather obvious arrogance here, and as a result stupidity. No doubt Joe klien and every liberal reading or posting on this blog has great confidence they understand and appreciate the pain from the violence of war. Liberals get it in a way few others do. That’s what makes them liberals. They get it. Here’s the impressive part. Very, very few have served or know anyone who has. How is it liberals can managed the understanding and empathy from such great distance but not the rest of the great unwashed?

    It’s this sort of incoherance that ensured the anti-war movement would never be more than a zoo.

    John Kerry a year or two after his loss made the classic gaffe of speaking the truth. The truth as liberals understand it. He still thinks what he said is true and doesn’t know why it was controversial but does know it ended any aspirations of another run in 2008. In a classroom he told students to study up or they’d end up in Iraq. Because only dopes go to Iraq. many of the people who enlist do so because they can’t get into college or have no other options. It is both untrue and a classless smear.

    Until liberals shed their arrogance they will never have credibility on things military. Obama was wise to keep all of GWBs men and do as he would do. The few times he’s veered he’s been hammered. He’s only just walked back his planned withdrawal but he did.

  • afguy

    Arrogant? Stupid? Do you have any idea what a clueless clown you appear in the posting above?
    .
    I’m still trying to figure out how you got your insight about how ALL presidents make decisions about warmaking or how you can be telling me that I can’t know what the military is about because I have a more liberal point-of-view than you do. The screen name I chose was because of 20 years in the active-duty AF, starting during the Vietnam era. Formerlyjames is, I believe, an ex-Marine. Enlisting during that era have a very big economic component to it, if for no other reason that many families couldn’t afford to keep their sons in college without a clear-cut educational goal to pursue..
    .
    To sit there and declare that there is NO economic component to the decision of a lot of the HS-aged enlistees are making today is… what’s the word… oh, yeah, STUPID!
    .
    I’m making my observations out of experience over that period. How were you able to gain so much knowledge and insight while waiting for your draft number to come up? If I recall correctly, they WERE still taking volunteers after the draft was halted.
    .
    I will say this… you have the cheerleading and name-calling of the “sunshine patriot” down pat. A pity you never believed enough in the “causes” you love to promote to put your own fat in the fire and go yourself.
    .
    Must be easier to put that yellow ribbon magnet on the back of your car, along with the “America – Love it or Leave it” bumper sticker. What’s $20 or so when it comes to supporting the troops? I’m sure some of those “professionals” appreciate your vicarious support while watching their marriages break up or waiting to see the base psychiatrist about why they’re waking up with nightmares. Your feeling that they’re “the best ever” carries them through the day, I’m sure.

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