In the Arena

On Target

David Brooks is totally on target today. The Democrats lost, in large part, because they spent too much time on issues that either hurt the middle west middle class in the short-term (cap and trade) or seemed too peripheral or distant to their immediate needs (health care). By threatening to repeal health care and fixing on deficit reduction (a long-term issue that needs to take a back seat to restoring the economy),  the Republicans are threatening to do the same.

The message I received when I traveled across the country was not complicated. What these people want, I think, is some real meat and potatoes talk about the following issues: trade/China, education, Wall Street (Add: and, of course, jobs and more jobs). They will, I expect, be receptive to bad news: the impact of China on their lives isn’t as dire or direct as it seems. But they will expect the government to respond–and the President to speak out–when China is caught cheating (on currency manipulation). They’re not so much concerned about choice in education as they are about real skills; they’d be receptive to a new emphasis–a revolution–in vocational education, where companies join together with school systems to train students for specific jobs. They’re skeptical, appropriately, about the steps Obama has taken to restrain Wall Street and they’d be open to a more rigorous regulatory process that either restores the wall between commercial and investment banking or–my choice–establishes a financial transaction tax on derivatives. They’d also be open, I suspect, to some big, old-fashioned stimulus spending: no more road paving, thank you–but bridges, tunnels, nuclear power plants, a new air traffic control system, a smart electric grid (but not wires overhanging their neighborhoods). A payroll tax holiday–to the horror of entitlement-spending hawks–would speak more directly to former factory workers now toiling at mini-marts than any other policy proposal.

On the conservative side of the ledger, they want to see the growth of the federal government restrained. They’re also sensitive about  money that seems to be going to the undeserving poor and not to them (this was another problem with the health care bill). They don’t like the money that’s being spent in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. They don’t like foreign aid. They probably wouldn’t mind the closure of costly U.S. bases around the world, especially in safe places like Germany,

Some of these preferences and prejudices are wrong; some emphasize the short-term over the strategic. There are issues, like climate change, that will have to be addressed by a responsible government whether folks in the middle of the country want to or not. Free trade in many product areas is absolutely necessary to the economy’s growth. Neither political party could, or should, accede to this entire agenda. But it should be the basis–the heart–of our policy discussions in the immediate future.

A colleague recently said to me, “The middle class is just totally screwed.” I replied, “then this country is screwed.” These issues, no matter how difficult, are not optional. We need to start acting on them now.

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  • bacotawordpress

    I think president Obama needs to give a press conference once in a while and explain himself. The HCA was monumental and huge, but most people I talked to still don’t understand the main idea behind it. That is why they say it “was forced down their throats”, not because of procedural tricks. People don’t know that the stimulus was almost half tax cuts. People (including me) don’t understand what the financial reform bill actually reformed.

    Voters aren’t going to vote on blind faith. Democrats need to give voters just a tiny bit of credit and justify themselves. Otherwise Republicans can keep saying whatever they want and it will stick.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    I agree, except on one point. Balancing the federal budget sounds good to a lot of people because they think it will fix the economy somehow. Of course, this is a fallacy. The government could cut programs and balance the budget and the economy might remain broken, but I’ve seen the argument made a lot.
    ·

    They’re not so much concerned about choice in education as they are about real skills; they’d be receptive to a new emphasis–a revolution–in vocational education, where companies join together with school systems to train students for specific jobs.

    ·
    ^ I want to emphasize this point! ^
    ·
    I’m tired of hearing from businesses that I don’t have enough experience after going to a 4 year institution and sinking money into a professional degree.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    Explaining the healthcare won’t help because it doesn’t reduce the cost of healthcare. When you look at how good our health care is compared to other countries we don’t make the top 20, yet we have the most expensive healthcare. It is this disconnect that needs to be solved, and yet “comprehensive” health reform failed to fix this problem. Obama could have had a press conference every day and it wouldn’t have changed this.

  • gchris2000

    Here’s a True American Target. An American Nonpartisan Future Starting Today

    The 2010 partisan election is over. The nonpartisan future starts today or else …

    America desperately needs to survive and wants to thrive. The American need. The American dream.

    America feels vulnerable. And it truly is. America waits anxiously and watches its political leadership. America needs smart, effective nonpartisan leadership now.

    Americans have a survivable and thriving future to build. We have difficult, complex problems to solve.

    We don’t want to spend one penny more or one penny less than necessary. We don’t want government one bit larger or one bit smaller than necessary. We don’t want government to be one bit more intrusive or one bit less helpful than necessary.

    Americans need success and soon. Americans will not wait until 2012. America’s nonpartisan future starts today or else partisan politicians face electoral extinction.

    America’s nonpartisan future starts today or else the American dream turns into a nightmare.

    America’s nonpartisan future starts today and, if so, America’s survivable and thriving future starts today.

    Gary Christopherson, Founder, viaFuture, http://www.ThrivingFuture.org

  • http://elvisberg.wordpress.com Elvis Elvisberg

    they spent too much time on issues
    -
    First off, they spent very little time on cap & trade. The GOP just likes to demonize the concept beccause it involves a government policy that responds rationally to our problems. (Also, it’s worth noting that relatively few people live in the Midwest. Not that their views are bad or should be ignored or anything, just that it’s foolish to imply, as Brooks does, that “Midwest = Real America, City = Fake America.” The Midwest just has a lot of white people, so it has more people who might tend to agree with David Brooks).
    -
    Brooks wrote, “According to exit polls on Tuesday, two-thirds of the Americans who voted said that the stimulus package was either harmful to the American economy or made no difference whatsoever.”
    -
    He must be deeply ashamed to be part of a media that is so terrible at informing people about the news. (One small exmple of how all grown-ups know the stimulus helped: http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/2010/02/abc-cant-find-economists-who-think-the-stimulus-failed/ )
    -
    The problem wasn’t that “the Democrats spent too much time” on issues other than creating jobs (and just how the hell is that supposed to happen, other than through stimulus spending?), it’s that the stimulus wasn’t big enough at the time. That’s what economists who have been right about things for the past 15 years, like Paul Krugman, thought the policy should be. Absent an appropriate stimulus, the Democrats could have spent all their time going to factories in the Midwest and frowning at unused machinery, and it wouldn’t have made a bit of difference. The unemployment rate is what mattered, and stimulus spending is how to fix it.

  • charlieromeobravo

    I disagree with the idea that health care is/was not at the forefront of people’s minds. My wife’s company just lost a big customer and they’re reducing their headcount from 100 to 18 in 60 days as a result. Obviously pay checks are a pressing concern to the people getting laid off but my wife is getting just as many inquiries about insurance and hearing many laments about sick kids and spouses. Our stupid employer subsidized health care system makes economic downturns doubly dangerous for people who lose their jobs. Unemployment and welfare will keep people mostly afloat if they can’t find a job but a serious illness can destroy the lives and financial futures permanently.

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek

    It is too bad the right didn’t put as much effort into putting forth alternative ideas as they do in analyzing what is wrong with Democrats.
    .
    Given what their leaders have said already revenge seems to be their highest priority at the moment. Those people in the middle of the country looking for solutions will be disappointed again.

  • charlieromeobravo

    “(and just how the hell is that supposed to happen, other than through stimulus spending?)”
    .
    Cue the conservative choruses of “tax cuts, deregulation, and deficit reduction.” You know, the same things that cures every problem a Republican sees.

  • charlieromeobravo

    “It is too bad the right didn’t put as much effort into putting forth alternative ideas as they do in analyzing what is wrong with Democrats.”
    .
    How true. I think only a handful of conservatives understand how much this wasn’t a vote for Republicans but against Democrats, much the same way it was the reverse in 2008 to a lesser degree. They’ve been great at criticizing while Dems did the hard work over the last two years, much of which really won’t come into fruition for a couple more years at least, but they never offer any alternatives other than the mantra of “tax cuts, deregulation, and deficit reduction.” They never offer specifics on the how they’d reduce the deficit, they cut taxes for the people that need it the least, and the industries they loosen the reins on end up disastrously imploding and costing us more to clean up the mess, literally in the case of the oil industry.
    .
    I’m fine with new leadership but what I really want to hear are new ideas.

  • charlieromeobravo

    Swampland desperately needs a moderation policy against blog whoring.

  • http://elvisberg.wordpress.com Elvis Elvisberg

    Oh hey, hadn’t seen this, Krugman actually writes about this topic today: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/05/opinion/05krugman.html?ref=opinion

    The whole focus on “focus” is, as I see it, an act of intellectual cowardice — a way to criticize President Obama’s record without explaining what you would have done differently. After all, are people who say that Mr. Obama should have focused on the economy saying that he should have pursued a bigger stimulus package? Are they saying that he should have taken a tougher line with the banks? If not, what are they saying? That he should have walked around with furrowed brow muttering, “I’m focused, I’m focused”?

    -
    Put that together with this: http://www.balloon-juice.com/2010/11/04/more-blue-dog-fail/

    Last summer, we met the Democrats who hated the unemployed—the 16 House votes from the majority party against an emergency extension of unemployment benefits. They were:
    John Adler, D-N.J.
    Brian Baird, D-Wash.
    Melissa Bean, D-Ill.
    Marion Berry, Blue Dog-Ark.
    Bobby Bright, Blue Dog-Ala.
    Travis Childers, Blue Dog-Miss.
    Jim Cooper, Blue Dog-Tenn.
    Joe Donnelly, Blue Dog-Ind.
    Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Blue Dog-S.D.
    Baron Hill, Blue Dog-Ind.
    Frank Kratovil, Blue Dog-Md.
    Betsy Markey, Blue Dog-Colo.
    Jim Marshall, Blue Dog-Ga.
    Walt Minnick, Blue Dog-Idaho
    Glenn Nye, Blue Dog-Va.
    Heath Shuler, Blue Dog-N.C.

    These brave politicians bucked their free-spending, ultra-liberal party, and cast votes in favor of fiscal responsibility. And for their willingness to oppose Barack Obama’s liberal agenda, nearly all of them were rewarded with early (and ironic) retirement from public service.

    -
    It almost seems like Democrats should pursue rational policies adequate to the task, rather than half measures designed to placate the ignorant right, for the sake of policy and politics!
    -
    charlieromeobravo, I’m sure you’re right. The fact that we had just undergone a decade of tax cuts + gov’t abdication of regulation, which led to a catastrophic financcial crisis, simply doesn’t matter. The chant is “tax cuts,” so… tax cuts. (My view is this is all overhang from the Southern Strategy– “You hate the government because it desegregated your schools! HAAAAAAATE it! Unless, of course, it’s bombing or locking up nonwhites, in which case “government” = “patriotism”").

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek

    charlieromeobr…now that they have power I doubt the Republicans will be able to get by on platitudes and stating the obvious much longer. One would think they need to put some effort into wrapping their platitudes with policy. For example, we believe in full employment and here is our plan, with supporting evidence, for producing it. Or, we believe in small government and here is our list of proposed cuts to government spending.
    .
    Unless I’m mistaken I think I have heard them say that Medicaid and Defense are already off the table, which is like saying, I want you to eat the whole pie but you are only allowed to chew on the crust. If you live long enough you see them repeat the cycle over and over. State your belief in a principle, remove all the things that might help you achieve your principle, then act surprised when you can’t find enough anywhere else to cut.

  • rdw56

    They don’t want a balanced budget as a fix to the economy. The balanced budget will be the RESULT of a fixed economy. Americans are not Europeans. We want spending cut to levels closer to 18% of GDP. We do not want big, intrusive govt.

  • rdw56

    Actually they won’t. They want govt scaled back as measured by spending. This Congress will do that and it will be good for the economy.

  • allthingsinaname

    The problem as I see it Joe, is that the pundits are too busy writing about each others opinion rather then getting at the truth of legislation being passed and why some isn’t.
    .
    What we need is a real Press. Since deregulation of the Press it has been down hill all the way. When the Press can be owned and controlled by giant corporations, we the people loose. What is the difference between Corporate money going to a campaign then Corporate money skewing the news?
    .
    The internet you say? Net neutrality? Yea right that is going to happen.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    The balanced budget will be the RESULT of a fixed economy.

    ·
    I’m glad you understand that, but do you understand that tax cuts won’t fix the economy? That they also won’t fix the budget?
    ·
    The budget is drastically off balanced because the economy is down and tax revenues are down.
    ·

    Americans are not Europeans. We want spending cut to levels closer to 18% of GDP. We do not want big, intrusive govt.

    ·
    You don’t. I want effective government, even if it is big. And I’m American too. So stop trying to hog the word. Reducing government spending right now will only hurt the economy.
    ·
    But, I am open to how you would fix the economy before we deal with balancing the budget. So, what are your opinions on that?

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    rdw56
    .

    They don’t want a balanced budget as a fix to the economy. The balanced budget will be the RESULT of a fixed economy. Americans are not Europeans. We want spending cut to levels closer to 18% of GDP. We do not want big, intrusive govt.

    .
    Really? So what cuts are you making that will bring the US to 18 percent of GDP?
    .
    This is just a lie. No American politician has ever actually proposed any budget that would put the US at 18% of GDP. No republican has every proposed a balanced budget–no president, no Congress, no Senate. In the most recent campaign, not one candidate, anywhere, proposed a Federal budget of 18% of GDP, nor any path that would do anything to eliminate the deficit.
    .
    As far as big intrusive government goes, try flying out of Atlanta.
    .
    These claims are lies, pure and simple. If there is anything unique about the Tea Party, it is some of them may so dimwitted as to believe these lies. But the mainline GOP know when they are lying. That’s why you have never heard Boehner propose anything substantive to lower government spending, the deficit or the government’s intrusiveness.

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek

    rdw56 could you explain where the cuts will be, how much they will be and how they will cause unemployment to go down, and by how much, over the next next 3 or 4 quarters.
    .
    Thanks.

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    [sigh]
    .
    Joe, they don’t care about the details of policy implementation. Nor do they care about the level of the renminbi. They want jobs, their home and a sane health care system. They will keep throwing the bum’s out until someone delivers.
    .
    The commitment by the Obama administration and the Democratic leadership to the very centrism you, Brooks, and the 3rd Way advocate have left us in a downward spiral. That’s the problem. Until the Washington Consensus moves off of the idea that policies should be delivered by oligopolies who have a fiduciary interest in gouging consumers, the downward spiral will continue.
    .
    And nobody wants to see the growth of the Federal government restrained. They’ve been fearmongered into supporting the defense budget, and are absolutely dependent on SS and Medicare for their future. They may have been fooled by the Big Lie that deficits affect them negatively, but they don’t really care as long as there is work, and a future for them and their children.
    .
    Right now, that future is bleak for anyone in the bottom 9 income deciles.

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    Also rdw “the government” includes state and local government. The US is not like “Europe” in that spending is not just at the central government level. Here’s government as a percentage of GDP.
    .
    http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/downchart_gs.php?year=1903_2010&view=1&expand=&units=p&fy=fy11&chart=F0-total&bar=0&stack=1&size=l&title=US%20Government%20Spending%20As%20Percent%20Of%20GDP&state=US&color=c&local=s
    .
    18% is a Robber Baron economy.

  • Paul-no not that one

    Thanks for that link Jay.

  • http://rbmatudan.wordpress.com rbmatudan

    Oh great I can’t wait to see both inflation and recession at the same time. The Interest on US bonds will need to increase to cover the risk. Since they’re all leeches who suck all the people’s blood! And to think that we allow those vote-seeking politicians to walk all over us!? We are stuck in the Greatest Depression ever.

    We help Americans find jobs and prosperity in Asia. Visit http://www.pathtoasia.com/jobs/ for details

  • rdw56

    We just went thru this in the 90′s. Hold the growth in spending to the inflation rate or below while growing GDP by 3% or more. Tax revenues will grow > 5% a that rate of growth.

    Right now 2 dozen states are seeing faster than expected revenue growth and are in a position to start paying down debt. It looks as if the layoffs at the state and local level are mostly over and by next year states like VA will have surpluses of 5% or more.

    Mcdonnell in VA promised to freeze spending until he got surpluses and then cap increases at the inflation rate. All receipts above budget will be returned in the form of debt reduction or tax cuts. The end result will be as the budget grows 1% and VA GDP at 4% spending as a % of GDP will shrink. It compounds over time.

    The real neat thing here is the differencial in taxation between VA and MD is already pretty wide. As VA further cuts taxes employers will bypass MD and expand in Va or even move there.

    We are seeing this now is stark contrast between Texas and CA. Texas creates half of al jobs in the USA the last two years. IN the year ended 8/2010 Texas added 119K jobs and Ca lost 112K jobs. CA simply cannot compete.

    Obviously Texas will become even stronger fiscally while CA gets progressively weaker. The same is true for VA versus MD. I don’t know if Governor Moonbeam will raise taxes but he’s making a lot of promises on spending. They are so screwed.

    Corbett in PA plans to follow Christie (NJ) and McDonnell in cutting some budget fat and then holding spending to the inflation rate. Then when the surpluses start some goes to debt reduction and some to tax cuts. NY is hosed.

    Cutting spending too far too fast is dangerous and can hurt the economy. Christie did a marvelous job in NJ surprising himself. My understanding is he expects this years budget to be balanced and still has more cuts for next year.

    This is really cool stuff. There is no rocket science. Corbett understands if he doesn’t keep to his promise he will be a one termer. I expect by his 3rd year he’ll cut the income tax rate from 3.2% to 3.1% and announce his intent to do the same each year for the next 6 years. That’s a relatively small cut but still outstanding for PA taxpayers. With 3% GDP growth he’ll still have surpluses and be able to reduce debt and fund pensions. If he is able to get the tax rate down to 2.6% he’ll be running for President.

  • jc46202

    So we should have waited to fix health care until a majority of the population was dying and unable to get their treatment through an HMO? WTF?

    Healthcare has needing work for decades. While you indeed may be correct that Democrats needed to address issues with greater immediacy in the minds of the voters, it should have been an AND (in addition to healtchare) not an OR.

    We will be a better nation long from now because the party and President Obama finally moved forward on a pressing issue.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    Yeah, that’s great, reducing the tax rates here in PA where I live. But did you know we have some of the worst rodes in the country? We have more bridges in danger of falling apart than any other state in this country. In fact, we’ve had to erect debri catchers below some bridges because we can’t afford to actually fix them or take them down.
    ·
    Meanwhile, we have one of the worst public transportation systems in the country, at least in the western portion of the state.
    ·
    You say budget cuts, and I say less teachers for already stressed schools. You can say that’s cool, but I’ve yet to hear of any real meaningful cuts here in PA.
    ·
    And I haven’t even mentioned our corrupt state legislature. They get free gas as they travel the state so long as they make a trip through Harrisburg. The state buys them a free car, too. They give themselves raises every year.
    ·
    So, I’m glad you think Corbett is magically going to fix things here by doing nothing and slowly cutting programs, but in the end it is going to hurt us here more than help.

  • jdittes

    The “undeserving poor” aren’t the ones helped by the health care bill. They remain on federal/stated medicaid rolls. The working poor in the service and manufacturing sectors were the ones who were helped by this bill. They can’t afford health care now–they soon will.

    This sector is the one that punished President Obama in the election–as did automotive states like Michigan and Ohio. There is a tremendous disconnect between the individuals President Obama actually helped in his first two years and their willingness to vote for Democrats in 2010.

  • lancedal

    American people are spoiled. They always want quick solution. Perhaps, this is the mentality of people who live in a country where anything is possible and they really forget about reality. Think about the BP oil well crisis. All they said was: why can’t the government stop the oil spill IMMEDIATELY. Well the government can’t. U.S. is the richest country in the world and we can’t do that????. Think about the Iraq war. Most American favor going into the war thinking it is a piece of cake. When it turned out uglier than they thought, they turned against it and want quick solution. Think about the diet industry. It knows people expect miracle when it come to diet. If they don’t loose 20 pound tomorrow, they’ll blame McDonald, they’ll blame their existing drugs, their existing exercise equipments. They’ll rush out the door looking for new diet drug, new exercise equipment hoping for a quick cure. They ignore the reality that it would take time to make those extra pounds of fat to go away and the reason why they get fat in the first place.

    My suggest to Dems?
    1. Pray that the economy will be better by 2012.
    2. Give American info. Educate them. If not, they’ll just turn to Fox News. Counter every lie Fox, Limbaugh, Bachmann put out like Obama did during his campaign. By doing so, you might be able to control the damage.

  • acameronw

    I’m no policy expert (as I’ve proven in this space on numerous occasions) but isn’t this point being overlooked: the health care bill is a jobs bill. It creates better conditions for small businesses to maintain and expand health care coverage for their workers, as well as giving new small businesses the chance to offer coverage to employees. I live in Silicon Valley, famous for its entrepreneurial spirit. But how can a software engineer with a great idea start a new business if he has to to give up health coverage for himself and his family? (Gender stereotype used for the sake of brevity.)

  • rdw56

    PA is a stunningly beautiful state with excellent roads and highways maintained by a gas and other transportation taxes. The high schools, supported by real estate taxes are nicer than the college I attended in the 70′s. They are outstanding facilities.

    Corbett WILL cut spending some and then cap it and we will live within that budget. We will get a stronger economy and the surpluses will go into debt reduction, pension liabilities, a rainy day fund and tax cuts.

  • rdw56

    Jay, true govt spending isn’t just federal spending. Thanks for clearing that up. I had no idea I was paying state and local taxes. The beauty of living in PA is I don’t live in CA with about double the taxes or NY which are about 50% more. Also living in beautiful chester county my taxes are lower than Philly and Del county and I can go to Delaware state for tax free shopping. .

    You might be right that 18% is too low a rate for federal taxation but 24% is far too high for spending which is about where it’s been. This is a needed debate. I suspect 19% or 20% tops. They real key is the way to get there isn’t dramatic budget slashing but careful pruning and then inflation only adjustments.

    The founding fathers saw the states as separate ‘labs’ which different policies could be tested. This is exactly what we are getting. Right now CA, MI and NY to name just 3 blue states are getting their economic butts kicked. The fact is with tax differencials, regulatory differences and the way utilities are managed those 3 states are going to continue to suffer while intelligently run states will prosper. The compounding is ugly. It was fairly recently Intel announced a new plant expansion, in Oregon. CA is screwed.

    We are going to see 7 to 10 house seats and electoral voted move from dying blue states to growing red states. In 2020 it could be 10-15. It’s a competition.

  • rdw56

    It’s a jobs killing bill. How can you hire when you have no idea how much they’re going to sock you with?

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    Also, what Cliff Schecter says here:
    .
    http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2010/09/201092713551193123.html
    .

    A recent CNN poll showed that an overwhelming 78% of Americans support allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military. Finally, when the argument is over taxes, a USA Today/Gallup Poll found that while only 37% want the richest Americans to keep tax cuts enacted by President Bush in 2001, while 59% either want only those making less than $250,000 a year to keep theirs, or want them to expire for everyone.

    Now, I know that states are different and Congressional districts even more so, but with these overwhelming numbers, most to all Democrats are in safe territory to stand up for progressive values. And if being progressive kills candidates, once again looking to history, someone is going to have to explain to me how unapologetic liberals such as Frank Church of Idaho, Mike Mansfield of Montana (who introduced the Civil Rights Act of 1964), and even George McGovern of South Dakota (to name only a few) managed to get elected and re-elected so many darn times.
    .
    This pattern of electing those who choose to lead continues today. Even as the Midwest, or Middle America, is fetishized in Washington for its middle-income, middle-class, moderate political bent, somehow Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Tom Harkin of Iowa, Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, and Al Franken of Minnesota are among the half-dozen to dozen most progressive Democrats in the Senate

    .
    The 3rd way, elite, Beltway pablum about tilting to the center in a center right country is simply not supported by history or the polls. This election was a repudiation of the Democrats’ decision to follow down the path of the ideological centrists, rather than to lead the country to a new future, like Lincoln, like Roosevelt, like FDR and like LBJ. Progressive policy works because progress drives freedom. In America’s history to oppose progress has meant supporting slavery, robber barons, and segregationists.
    .
    Which side is Joe on? Not the side of progress.

  • rdw56

    Derek, those are all unknownable. It’s like passing a bill. You can’t know what’s in it until it’s passed. I do think the economy now is on an uptick and we’re moving from a 2% growth path to above 3%. If we can hold there and form a base we can get to 4%. I’m hearing Obama is now ready to move on some trade biils and understands he has to extend all of the Bush tax cuts. All to the good

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    We just went thru this in the 90′s. Hold the growth in spending to the inflation rate or below while growing GDP by 3% or more. Tax revenues will grow > 5% a that rate of growth.

    .
    That, of course, will hold the fraction of GDP essentially constant. As I thought. No program cuts. Voodoo and fairy dust. Like Reagan and Bush–massive deficits, AND large increases in government spending.
    .
    It’s just a lie.

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    So that 18 percent business was just a lie, right?

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    Do you live here? I do. It is very beautiful, but that has nothing to do with the state of our education system or our roads.

    Older study

    From 2005 to 2006 nearly $985 million was spent on Pennsylvania on a total of 1,533 bridge projects, Chizmar said. But with 5,532 structurally deficient bridges and another 4,028 functionally obsolete bridges, these numbers indicate that only a fraction of problematic bridges received repairs.

    He estimated that approximately 52 bridges in the state have been closed because they are unsuitable for travel.

    Here’s one from two years ago and it continues.
    ·
    This of course neglects the fact that we’ve had budget shortfalls and Corbett has no plans for how he would actually increase GDP, and neither do you. Just like the bush tax cuts you’re relying on a prediction instead of reality.
    ·
    And yes the facilities in PA are nice. But, we’re barely over the halfway point and recieved a C when we were rated last year.

  • mxyzptlk1953

    “I’m going to ensure that Republicans come out of the gate and seize this moment, we’ve really been given a second chance at a first impression and I’m going to tell them that we have to rise to the challenge with principle and conviction and not with this attitude that you saw coming from the White House yesterday and from some other quarters on the establishment left in Washington which was that somehow the message of the election was that they want Democrats and Republicans to work better together, to get along — good heavens” – Mike Pence

  • Chasmanian Devil

    I agree and have been recommending to my friends that a great economic stimulus would be to stop FICA withholding for folks making under $20,000 per year. Could even give the same break to their employers. Allow Bush’s tax cuts to expire for folks over $250K and even over $125K – I could pay more taxes with no problem. Also, the 800 lb. gorilla everybody ignores needs to be addessed: one-and-half wars and a bloated defense budget.

  • rdw56

    you think press freedom is a bad thing?

  • rdw56

    Why would you think it a lie? It’s a guess of where the right level should be. 18% would be near $2.6T. 19% w/b near $150B higher. I’m not sure what the right number is but just having the debate is progress. I think spending in 2009 was 24%. That’s far too high.

  • doddeb

    Jayackroyd: I live in one of the rust belt states about which David Brooks and Joe Klein are speaking so “authoritatively”. I live in a lower-middle class neighborhood. I’m the only registered Democrat that I know of. I have been talking to my neighbors because I simply don’t understand why anyone would think that voting Republican at this moment in time is the rational response. Most of my neighbors are either self employed, work for small businesses, or currently unemployed. And they are angry and afraid. Angry that they are working harder than ever (and getting older and more tired) and ending up with less. Afraid that this is going to be a permanent state of affairs. In the past year, the anger has led to more domestic violence and neighbor-on-neighbor violence than I have seen since I moved here in 1992.
    .
    I don’t think that these folks have a completely irrational way of looking at life; the irrationality seems to kick in when they are looking for “who to blame”. Most of my neighbors seem to be preoccupied with people who are “getting something for nothing.” I’ve known these folks for a while and I’ve never seen them so agitated about it. I think it must be because they realize that everybody’s slice of the pie is shrinking, and when that’s true, you worry about equity and fairness more. And I hear a lot of “I have to live on a budget. Let the government try it for a change.”
    .
    These are not folks who are spending as much time as I do, looking at various news sources to try to make sense of things (I have somewhat more spare time than most). Fox news talking points salt every conversation we have. Clearly, the blue team is not winning the communication wars. Personally, I think this is because Democrats don’t really seem to have clear-cut convictions about how the nation should move forward. I really think that most of my neighbors would respond to clear leadership that was trying to accomplish something, rather than the muddy, convoluted solutions that have been proposed so far. Limited government? That’s not what I’m hearing. Effective, purposeful government? Absolutely.

  • rdw56

    The best revenge is wining and doing what the people want to keep on winning. This is worse than you recognize. The GOP can expect to pick up another 6-8 Senate seats next year. Many are just looking at the raw numbers in terms of turn over this year. But even where the GOP kept the seats of retiring Senators such as in OH and FL the new Senator is far more conservative.

    This is a two cycle process at least. The idea is to check Obama so to make progress on spending AND the economy and deficits to have another good election getting the WH back, 55 Senators and keep the solid house majority. That is where the real progress can be made with talk of amendments for a balanced budget and/or a targeted spending caps.

    Remember this differencial at the state level is only going to become more obvious. States like TX, VA, Fl, NJ and PA are going to outperform CA, NY, MI, WA. etc. This is already a center-right nation. As it becomes economic cost of a high tax regime becomes so stark there will be larger majorities demanding to ensure we don’t allow liberals to do at the federal level that they’ve done in CA. MI and NY.

  • allthingsinaname

    No I think that when a giant corp like GE can own the Radio, TV, News print in any and all markets, it is not Press freedom. It is called supression of the Press and information.
    .
    You haven’t clue, do you?

  • rdw56

    No, it is not. What do you think happened in the 90′s? There were no spending cuts. They cut the rate of growth of spending. In this case Obama has exploded the budget 21% but some of that is temporary spending programs that will elapse. They need to get down to a ratio in the 2006-2004 time line and then hold spending increases to inflation.

    There has to be some cuts depending on what Obama did but again it’s going back to 2008 or before.

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    The 90s were an aberration. The computer boom inflated profits all over the board, and we’ve been reeling since that crash.
    ·
    Holding spending won’t do anything to fix the economy or necessarily the budget.
    ·
    It is a nice pipe dream though.

  • http://www.inworldstudios.com jayackroyd

    Where do you get “irrational?” Throwing the bums out is the only alternative available to a voter. I think it’s entirely reasonable to look at your current situation, look at the way the future looks to you and say “Something’s gotta change.” and vote the for the other guys.
    .
    It’s not irrational to not be acquainted with the policy nuances Joe is talking about. it’s uninformed, to some degree, to blame the federal deficit for your problems, but there is a very wide, deep message stream saying exactly that, including messages from Obama saying that. It doesn’t make sense to blame intrusive government for the problems; the opposite is pretty clearly the problem. We have been through a ten year period of reduced intrusion in the “private” sector, and things are considerably worse.
    .
    But when someone stands up and says he is gonna fix it, and then he doesn’t, well, there will be some very rational accountability. NOT about the deficit, but about the risk of job loss, of foreclosure, of working until you’re 70 at a low wage job. That’s what, IMO, people voted against–or stayed home because they couldn’t vote for either the party that drove us into the ditch, or the one who has kept us there.

  • apr2563

    Joe, elitist that you are, do you ever get tired of putting down progressives.
    Here is a criticism I have of most pundits and politicians. They keep insisting education is the cure for our employment woes. If everyone just had a college education all would be fine. There would be full employment.
    What would these jobs be? The last job I had was supervising customer service for the SCHIPS program. We had mostly college educated people who could not find employment in their hi tech occupations. They had taken huge salary cuts. Hi tech jobs have been outsourced.
    The US, with the help of tax subsidies, has outsourced most of the manufacturing jobs. Jobs that are low paying, use child labor, and poor safety records. There exports are subsidized by their governments.
    Customer service jobs are now outsourced for lower salaries.
    The country does not seem to want to support green jobs.
    Again, what jobs will we train all these college grads for?

  • liberalmeltdown

    “The message I received when I traveled across the country was not complicated. What these people want, I think, is some real meat and potatoes talk about the following issues: trade/China, education, Wall Street (Add: and, of course, jobs and more jobs). They will, I expect, be receptive to bad news: the impact of China on their lives isn’t as dire or direct as it seems.”

    Really, the impact of China isn’t dire or direct on people’s lives? How about if Time outsourced it’s reporting to China, do you think that would have an impact on your life? How about if you couldn’t compete with those writers because they work for $1 a day. That’s the direct impact of the unfair trade we have with China and it gets worse everyday. Where did all that stimulus money go? Where will all the government subsidies for low quality solar panels go? China.
    .
    I guess you just don’t want to lose the cheap crap that you can get at Wal mart.

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek

    “Derek, those are all unknownable. It’s like passing a bill. You can’t know what’s in it until it’s passed.”
    .
    So you don’t know if the policies you support will work or not and you reject policies that are proven to work.
    .
    Thanks, I think that sums up the situation we are in now.

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