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The Tea Party and 2012

By Michael Crowley | @CrowleyTIME | October 25, 2010 | +

The WSJ looks past next Tuesday to what the Tea Party, such as it can be defined, wants from the next presidential election:

[T]he movement’s rise has complicated matters for potential 2012 candidates by dividing the GOP into three camps.

According to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, one third of Republicans say they don’t back the tea party. Among this group, a slight plurality says Mr. Romney is the GOP’s “most important leader.”

One third of Republicans support the tea party so strongly that they describe themselves as part of the movement more than they identify as Republicans. Among this group, Mr. Gingrich is considered the GOP’s “most important leader”—ahead of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has tied herself closely to tea-party candidates this year.

The final third supports the tea party but identifies more as Republicans. Ms. Palin and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are cited as top leaders most often among this group.

One thing missing from this passage, however, is the question of intensity. If the party is divided up by thirds, but the one-third that self identifies as Tea Partiers are the most passionate (and most likely to canvass and vote in primaries), then the likes of Gingrich and Palin have an edge over someone like Romney. On the other hand, Romney seems to have the big money.

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  • allthingsinaname

    Split into thirds but, 100% will vote against their best interests.

  • GivenUp

    This implies the Tea Party won’t implode if they fail to make the gains they hoped for on Nov 2. (which, given their own expectations they certainly will)

  • http://gum0nshoe.wordpress.com gumOnShoe

    By 2013 I expect the Tea Party will be suffering from the same fatigue that the democrats are, if they haven’t suffered it by 2012. Most of the core Tea Party initiating members will have fallen out by 2012 as they’ve seen their group taken over by social conservatives and Republican franchise elites.

    All of this will happen quicker if the GOP manages to actually grab power and has to govern. That said, a Tea Party backed candidate is probably less likely to win a presidential election with glaring attention and close watchers. I imagine it would be like Palin falling apart all over again.

  • centfan

    I suspect any Tea Party candidates that make it will quickly lose the purity test. They will either be forced to make compromises that look like “taxes” or “bailouts” or “give aways” to the undeserving or they’ll stick to their guns and fail to play the Washington game, which will mean no pork or even jobs for their state, no love from the press, and no satisfied special interests to fund their continuation in office. The turnips that elected them won’t see any ideological conflict in their small universe of non-sequiturs… only evil and “not getting thems that’s coming to them”…
    -
    Waddyaknow, they’re just politicians diving into a different pool of money.

  • square1

    Shorter Crowley: The GOP is fracturing. One third are Rockefeller Republicans. They like Romney.

    One third are traditional socially conservative Republicans. The dumb ones like Palin. The smart ones like Huckabee.

    And one third are racist, neo-John Bircher clowns. They like Gingrich.

  • sacredh

    “The smart ones like Huckabee.”
    .
    Smart is a very relative word. A person worth an IQ of 90 is smarter than a person with an IQ of 80. I really wouldn’t either one as a partner playing Trivial Pursuit.

  • http://redstatedebate.wordpress.com redstatedebate

    I am tea party and I have come to the conclusion that I have been racist against Obama!

    http://conservativeblogscentral.blogspot.com/2010/10/i-want-to-kiss-nancy-pelosi.html

  • herby002

    Yes you are, and no you haven’t. Taking you literally, you are a liar.

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