Senate

Dems Pull Ahead in Cali; Murkowski and Miller are Neck-and-Neck

By Jay Newton-Small | @JNSmall | September 29, 2010 | +

CNN/TIME/ORC has a new poll of four states out today. Here’s a link to my story. Short version:

Alaska:
Senate: Lisa Murkowski’s becoming a real threat to Joe Miller in polls — but that doesn’t mean these people know how to spell M-U-R-K-O-W-S-K-I come Nov. 2. Governor: GOP incumbent Sean Parnell is winning.

California:
Senate & Governor: Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown are both leading Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman 9 points each.

Florida:
Senate: Conservative Marco Rubio pulls ahead of Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek. Rubio: 42%, Crist 31%, Meek 23%. Governor: What’s going on with Democrat Alex Sink? Why is she losing to Rick Scott — the guy most GOP strategists said couldn’t win — 45% to 47%?

Illinois:
Holy outside candidates, Batman! In the Senate race, Democrat Alexis Giannoulias is leading Republican Mark Kirk 43% to 42% with Green candidate LeAlan Jones drawing 8% of the vote. Governor: Republican Bill Brady leads 40% to Democrat Pat Qunn’s 38% and two Dem third party candidates are drawing a whopping 18% of the vote.

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Related Topics: alaska, California, cnn/time/orc, Florida, illinois, poll, 2012 Election, Congress, Democratic Party, Exclusives, Republican Party, Senate

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  • afguy

    …but that doesn’t mean these people know how to spell M-U-R-K-O-W-S-K-I come Nov. 2.
    .
    Not bad, Jay.
    .
    Maybe you can give Michael some humor pointers in the thread below. Looks like he might need them

  • Paul-no not that one

    IL-Governor: Republican Bill Brady leads 40% to Democrat Pat Qunn’s 38%
    .
    Too close to call. It really is going to come down to which one wants (to go to jail) the most.

  • http://www.simonvinkenoog.nl/beeld/Yogi%20-%20Annelies%20Rigter.jpg yogi

    Was the misspelling of “Miler” in the title apart of that humor?

  • conversets

    The numbers from this blog, which appear to be correct likely voter numbers, don’t match those from your story or Halperin’s page. Both of those are using registered voter numbers.

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/09/29/topstate4.pdf

  • apr2563

    I will say again: Whitman and Fiorini have no chance in CA. Too many people have vivid memories here about what Fiorini did to HP. And, Whitman has so overplayed her ad saturation that people are all too aware of her attempt to buy herself into a vanity public office. It would have helped if she had also voted once before she ran for Gorvernor.
    Oh, now there is that pesky accusation about her undocumented maid.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/29/meg-whitmans-former-maid-_n_743253.html

  • mfbattle

    Jay,

    This poll is not trustworthy. Respondents are GIVEN Murkowski as an option. This is not how it will happen in November, and so I think the poll overestimates her vote. When she is not given as an option she is far behind.

  • virginiagentleman

    Jay, are you guys trying to destroy Scott McAdams’ chances in this race, with that godawful photo of him at the top of your story?

    He looks like Paul Bearer of World Wrestling Entertainment fame, and that’s not a good thing.

  • nflfoghorn

    “Why is [Sink] losing to Rick Scott — the guy most GOP strategists said couldn’t win — 45% to 47%?”
    .
    a) You must be using the all-too-reliable Rasmussen poll (exact same numbers); other polls have Sink up by seven
    .
    b) Baldy is awash in his own $ and can pull negative ads out his rump even if they’re not true
    .
    c) Baldy refuses to come clean on the Columbia/HCA debacle which cost the company billion$ in fines
    .
    d) He’s avoiding a debate at all costs for reasons b) and c).
    .

    Can somebody tell me why anybody can plead the Fifty forty-five times and think he can run a state better than he did a hospital chain?

  • http://www.twitter.com/jnsmall Jay Newton-Small

    I agree, the photo of McAdams is terrible. I even noted that to the eds.

  • newfreedomblog

    “Can somebody tell me why anybody can plead the Fifty forty-five times and think he can run a state better than he did a hospital chain?”

    .
    Pleading the “Fifty”??? Hmmm, now that IS a new one…LOL!!

  • nflfoghorn
  • newfreedomblog

    http://www1.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2010/Sep/29/in_alaska_senate_race__ad_aims_at__princess_lisa_.html
    .

    “In Alaska Senate race, ad aims at ‘Princess Lisa’

    .
    Now where did I put that shoe I just put in my mouth, so says Jay Newton-Small. :)
    .
    Enjoy!!

  • blossom38

    The Office of Elections in Alaska stated a few weeks ago (when Murkowski announced), that all the voter had to do was show intent. It doesn’t matter if the voter misspells Murkowski, if it’s close, they would accept the V-O-T-E.

  • nflfoghorn

    Before the cock crows…or the undocumented papers flow, whichever…you will deny me three times.

  • newfreedomblog

    “Holy outside candidates, Batman!”

    .
    Well not exactly. Real Clear Politics has the averages of all polls at Kirk 39.4% with Giannoulias 37.8%. Throwing out the weighted and biased TIME/CNN poll which is nothing short of ridiculous, Kirk is winning by on average 4 points right now.
    .
    Here is the breakdown of the rest:
    .
    SENATE 2010 POLLS
    .
    TOSS UPS
    Colorado: Bennet (D)
    Connecticut: Open (D)
    Illinois: Open (D)
    Nevada: Reid (D)
    Washington: Murray (D)
    West Virginia: Open (D)
    .
    LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Alaska: Open (R)
    Kentucky: Open (R)
    Missouri: Open (R)
    New Hampshire: Open (R)
    Pennsylvania: Open (D)
    Wisconsin: Feingold (D)
    .
    LEAN DEMOCRAT
    California: Boxer (D)
    New York: Gillibrand (D)
    .
    LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Florida: Open (R)
    Indiana: Open (D)
    Louisiana: Vitter (R)
    North Carolina: Burr (R)
    Ohio: Open (R)
    .
    LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Delaware: Open (D)
    Oregon: Wyden (D)
    .
    SAFE REPUBLICAN
    Arkansas: Lincoln (D)
    North Dakota: Open (D)

  • apr2563

    The bible tells us so.

  • nflfoghorn

    And since a two-point difference is within the statistical margin of error, how can you say she’s “losing” anyway?

  • nflfoghorn

    [high-pitched voice]
    OOOOOOH, my prodigy, OOOOOH, my Unnnnderrrtakerrrrr, will destrooooy yoooooour careeeeeeerrrrrrr!!!!

  • mfbattle

    I think it will be easy to paint Murkowski as a spoiled child. Remember she did not get 50% of the vote in 2004, which was a GOP year. The Dems only picked up CO and IL, both of which were reasonable, expected wins, against bad GOP candidates. The GOP picked up six seats that year, and she nearly lost them Alaska!

  • http://forgottenlord.livejournal.com forgottenlord

    Didn’t the first poll out on the three way show Murkowski ahead of both Miller and the other guy (who’s name I can’t remember)?

  • mfbattle

    Yes but that was a poll that misidentified Murkowski as the Libertarian candidate, she is not, and was carried out by a private pollster, who I think works for Murkowski.

  • acameronw

    I’m a (Northern) Californian and while I agree with you that Brown will probably win I wouldn’t completely discount the possibility that the illegal worker story will actually help Whitman. If the story holds that the employee lied about her legal status and was let go when she revealed the truth, then some people are going to see Whitman as the injured party. The lawsuit seems like aggrandizement and the presence of Gloria “Which Camera Is On?” Allred doesn’t exactly lend credibility. Sure, the Hispanic voters might think the employee got a raw deal, but Whitman wasn’t going to get those votes anyway. (Some salary details might hurt Whitman. How much does a billionaire pay a housekeeper?)

  • apr2563

    acameronw: Gloria Allred gives me the heebies. But, as far as her not knowing about the maids immigration status, it sounds like she did nothing to confirm her status. The maid worked for her for 9 years and then confessed her status. She was fired.
    The hypocricy is Whitman is running on a get tough, no amnesty, crack down on employers of the undocumented policy.
    Seems to me in 9 years she might have made an attempt to find out if the maid was legally here.

  • kbanginmotown

    ha!

  • Ivy_B

    Speaking of write-ins, Mike Castle is not going to stage one in DE.

  • bobell

    It’s not necessary to spell “Murkowski” correctly in order to have a write-in vote count for her. All that is required is that the voter make it reasonably clear whom he or she is voting for. So variant spellings won’t necessarily cause rejection. On the other hand, I don’t think things like “L.M.” will be counted. Where’s the line? Who knows?
    .
    At least there won’t be any hanging chads for Murkowski.

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