Wave? Not yet in KY, CA & FL

polls, schmoles
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pundits, dumbits

except, of course, me and newfreedomblog . . .

Aside from Newsweek the CNN/Time polls have been the worst in the business. Rasmussen is the most accurate woth Gallup not too far. Larry Sabato was a week behind Charley Cook in predicting the GOP takeover of the house and both show the Senate in play.

There is something else going on here. The tea party effect is real. Not only are the conservatives running for office far more fiscally conservative but so are the Democrats. Bennett running for Senate in Colorado just announced he is against rolling back ANY of the Bush tax cuts.

Hmmph… I thought Paul was supposed to be able to kill Conway. That they’re running neck in neck seems counter to Time’s recent narrative.

2 thoughts

1- When is CNN going to switch to a likely voter model? The election is in 2 months. I suspect the results would significantly better for the GOP candidates given the enthusiasm gap.

2- I would like to see the party affiliation breakdown for Kentucky. Maybe Iam missing something, but if Paul is winning independents by %11, I find it very hard to believe that in Kentucky of all places he is only tied once you add in registered republicans and democrats. I have a feeling the democrats are being over sampled in this one.

I’m told we’re switching to likely voter model soon — maybe even next poll.

Kentucky is actually majority registered Democratic — a hang over from before civil rights.

Thanks for responding. That makes a lot more sense now, and seems to be a very unlikey outcome in this election.

Just to echo JNS
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“Registered Democrats in Kentucky outnumber Republicans by 573,139 voters.”
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http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2010/05/kentucky-voter-turnout-numbers-spark-debate.html

The tsunami is coming, Jay. If you’re confident that it is not, I have a challenge for you. If the GOP takes control of the House, you agree to resign from Time.

As noted, these polls does not take likely voters into account. When that is done, Rand Paul is well ahead in Kentucky.

As long as he keeps his mouth shut about the details of the Libertarian agenda…….

Good news for Alex in FL. Even Meek can take solace that he can eat into the other two’s messages with seven weeks to go.

groenhagen2~
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and if the Repubs don’t take control of the house, you will resign form Swampland? If so, I might be willing to vote Republican just to help that happen.
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not because I believe in exclusion of people with different ideas or philosophies than I, but because, so far, you strike me as an individual who insists on continuing to act like a jerk.
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I’d rather see that change and you stay here to contribute productively.

By the time Whitman is done trying to buy herself a govenership she could have retired the CA debt.
So far she has spent over $130 million for the office. For someone who never bothered to vote in the past, her interest in governance is quite suspect.
Seems to me she should be much further ahead.
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Here in CA we are bombarded dailly by her ads. In N. CA.. What a waste of money.
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Her big mistake was taking on the nurses’ union. Just wait. Arnie regretted his attack on the nurses and so will she.

Tell you what, Mushroom Man. I’ll stop posting here if the GOP fails to take control of Congress as long as you pledge to stop posting here if they do so.

As far as the kerk comment, it appears you have a serious case of projection. Most liberals cannot handle criticism.

Seems counter to EVERYONE’S meme. In individual races Dems are running a lot closer (some are – gasp -leading!) than the “generic” Dem vs. Rep polls would lead you to believe. MSM can’t see the trees for the forest. Flox can’t see, period.

I think the KY senate race is the most important in the nation. Rand Paul will put a hold on absolutely every thing. absolutely. every. thing. for six years.

“As long as he keeps his mouth shut”
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Shortened it for you.

Kathy you are absolutely right.

Re: Paul v. Conway

That poll shows Paul ahead in the rural areas. My mother and grandparents were from Harlan County, and if Conway could make some hay out of Paul saying he didn’t know what Harlan County was famous for he could close that gap. It may seem like a long time ago, but the bitterness from those labor struggles remains, handed down from one generation to the next. The descendants of those miners who now live in the suburbs remember the stories they were told. (I know I do.) Paul’s stance against stricter mine safety regulations plays into this as well (“Sometimes, accidents just happen.”) A well written radio spot (“Rand Paul may not remember what happened in Harlan County, but you do…”) might do the trick. Bringing it up in debate wouldn’t hurt, either. Paul will likely claim that bringing up things he actually said ss “gotcha politics” but what they hell. He’s going to do that anyway,

“…it appears you have a serious case of projection.”
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Aaawww isn’t that cute.
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Little Groinhugger is copying what I said about Republicans and applying to Democrats.
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BTW: It’s not much easier to PO or really annoy Mycophile than it is Mother Theresa, so, if he is POed, then, basically, you know that Mother Theresa would want to kick your ass, too if she heard you and your stupidity.

“If the GOP takes control of the House, you agree to resign from Time.”
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If the GOP takes control of the House, there won’t be a job to resign from anywhere, except maybe removing bodies from the street and making Soylent Green (Time’s probably going under either way).

last week, when the Gallup generic poll was 51%-41% for Republicans in congress , all the pundits were shouting it from wherever they shout, this week when it is tied 46%-46% , the silence is deafening..

I’d bet on Soylent Green happening for real before TIME goes under (remember who owns them). Jay replied earlier to sacredh about their financial status. As for other human-based products…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39039019

“(remember who owns them)”
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I do. I wonder how many at Time Warner remember Atari or want to remember AOL.

Rasmussen is the most accurate woth Gallup not too far
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If by “most accurate” you mean “15th most accurate,” then yes, you’re right.
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html

…excellent point about Atari. Warner’s ownership definitely flamed out after red-hot 2600 success. And AOHell too: they should’ve learned what “customer service” meant (and here: that includes High Sheriffs giving us back paragraph breaks, etc. + reporters replying to us more often to answer q’s and give more thoughts to improve blog quality, but I digress). TWX needs to improve TIME but the paywall idea is NOT the way to to go.

Say decon:
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Has KT found a venue at WaPo.com where folks can comment on her articles? I’ve stopped over a few times and found it to be pretty muddled. Any thoughts?

Jay,
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You are really reaching on this one.
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Republicans are heading into the final weeks of the midterm campaign with the political climate highly in their favor, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Americans are increasingly frustrated by a lack of economic progress, deeply dissatisfied with the federal government and critical of President Obama’s leadership.
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Voters were asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president’s policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama’s agenda. Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP’s 16-point edge is double what it was in July.
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By a 13-point margin, independent voters say they would support Republican over Democratic candidates in their House districts. A majority of independents – 59 percent – say they would prefer to have Republicans in charge of Congress to serve as a check on the president’s agenda.

According to the latest Gallup Poll
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The “Enthusiasm Gap is now 25 Points for Republicans.
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…………..Highly Motivated to Vote
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Republicans……………50%
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Independents………….28%
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Democrats…………….25%
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The CNN/TIME Poll of Registered Voters isn’t worth the Paper it’s written on and you know it.
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The only relevant Polls at this time are “Likely Voters” and Republicans are currently more likely to vote by almost 2 to 1 against Democrats.
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You’re writing articles based on Hope and Prayers. Why don’t you use Facts and Logic?
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“Why don’t you use Facts and Logic?”
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gwbc is writing with Facts and Logic while You’re writing based on week old statistic, Hope and Prayers.
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It’s 50/50, 3X.
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I have never gambled, but, I wonder what Vegas puts the odds on this now?
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I suspect it is 50/50 right now about who gets the house.

Patrick,
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Keep hoping and praying.
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50-50 is one polls generic poll results.
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The Enthusiasm Gap will get you every time.
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Democrats risk losing majority control of Congress if the midterm elections become a referendum on the economy, President Obama told ABC in an interview set to air Thursday morning on “Good Morning America.”
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Remember the only Polls that count are based on Likely Voters. Everything else is irrelevant.

Alas, kbang, I don’t think KT has: no blog of her own, no regular column, she’s only called a “staff writer,” sigh. The WaPo comments system is a mess: slooooow to load (if at all when count is high), no sub-threads for folks to scream and insult share thoughts, article comments on separate page vs. blog comments on same page, etc. I hope the bosses there are NOT holding her back.

“Democrats risk losing majority control of Congress if the midterm elections become a referendum on the economy…”
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So long as average voters, unlike me and most of the posters here (note that I do not say “real Americans”, “The American People” since, even when a majority votes one way or another, it is not going to be 100% nor vaguely close to it) believe that Republicans have better solutions or, as I and many posters here believe, that it will be a return of the policies of GWB, who more Americans hold responsible than the President for our situation.
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We do agree that the economy is the worst it’s been since the 1930s.

I can’t wait for the Tea Party Senate candidates to join the great debates with Inhoff and DeMint.
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Joe Buck, Co. Doesn’t wear high heels
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Christine O’Donnell, DE, Doesn’t believe in self-gratification, working, or paying her taxes.

Joe Miller, AK. Campaign funded by God
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Mike Lee, UT. Do away with 17th Amendment
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Sharon Angle, NV. Won’t fight for NV jobs
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Rand Paul, KY Harlan County?
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Their intellect will cause oratory to soar on the Senate floor. It will be like having the Know Nothing Party as part of our government again.

“(Newser) – Now that’s abstinence. Delaware Tea Party Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell is opposed to masturbation because the Bible says “lusting in your heart” is the same as committing adultery and, as O’Donnell so correctly pointed out in a past MTV interview, “you can’t masturbate without lust.” During a 2007 debate on sexuality on Fox News, when former Surgeon General Jocelyn Elders complained that “we have a sexually unhealthy society,” O’Donnell snapped: “That’s wonderful. It’s called modesty.”"
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So, if that is the case, we should have a far, far more promiscuous society. so that, instead of masturbation we should have whorehouses on every corner.
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Don’t forget that one of the father’s of modern Christianity, Saint Augustine supported legal prostitution.

Patrick,
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Dream On. Rationalizing is not reality
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NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll
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With the Labor Day holiday marking
the traditional starting point of the
campaign season, Republicans
have a nine-point edge among
those considered likely voters, plus
a near 20-point lead among those
expressing the highest amount of
interest in the midterms.
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Washington Post / ABC News Poll
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Among all voters, 47 percent say they would back the Republican in their congressional district if the election were held now, while 45 percent would vote for the Democrat. Any GOP advantage on this question has been rare in past years – and among those most likely to vote this fall, the Republican advantage swells to 53 percent to the Democrats’ 40 percent.
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Voters were asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president’s policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama’s agenda. Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP’s 16-point edge is double what it was in July.
.
By a 13-point margin, independent voters say they would support Republican over Democratic candidates in their House districts. A majority of independents – 59 percent – say they would prefer to have Republicans in charge of Congress to serve as a check on the president’s agenda.
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Gallup Poll
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According to the latest Gallup Poll
.
The “Enthusiasm Gap is now 25 Points for Republicans.
.
…………..Highly Motivated to Vote
.
Republicans……………50%
.
Independents………….28%
.
Democrats…………….25%
.

Kevin,
“Rasmussen is the most accurate with Gallup not too far
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If by “most accurate” you mean “15th most accurate,” then yes, you’re right.
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html‘
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Kevin,
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As they say “Figures Don’t Lie, But Liars Use Figures”
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Every time Rasmussen Name comes up you jump up and down saying how biased they are and can not be trusted because you say the are RW.
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Let’s look at the actual facts about Rasmussen.
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1. They are rated by Nate Silvers of fivethirtyeight.com as 15th most accurate out of the 70 plus Polls that Nate rates.
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2. Nate gives them a PIE Rating [ Pollster Introduced Error] of 1.74%. That compares to the number one rated Field Poll with a Pie rating of 1.05%.
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3. That means Rasmussen Pie rating is .69% [ less than 1% lower ] of the Field Poll rating that was number one on the Nate Silvers rating list for most the accurate polling company.
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Kevin you really should deal with facts rather then Hopes and Dreams.

Rand holds a +8.8 point lead In the Real Clear Politics Summary of Polls.
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The only poll that shows them even is the CNN/TIME Poll which is based on registered voters rather then Likely Voters.
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As you should know by now Polls based on registered voters on a mid term election are not worth the paper they are written on.

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