In the Arena

Today and Tomorrow in Afghanistan

Continuing their run of extraordinary reporting from Afghanistan, Dexter Filkins and Mark Mazzetti break the news that Mohammed Zia Salehi, President Karzai’s top national security aide who was busted for corruption last month, was on the payroll of the CIA. Earlier this year, Filkins reported that Karzai’s brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, was also on the CIA’s payroll. Various U.S. government sources–not associated with the intelligence community–have told me that the list of CIA beneficiaries in Afghanistan is long and embarrassing, and far too associated with the Afghan  drug trade for anyone’s comfort (the list apparently includes Sher Mohammed Akhunzada, Karzai’s former governor in Helmand Province who was caught with 9 tons of opium and heroin on his property).

Today’s news should raise a fundamental question about the U.S. effort in Afghanistan: Where’s the coordination? Why did the anti-corruption drive, emphasized by General Petraeus, roll up one of our intelligence assets? Why were we paying this crook in the first place? Why did diplomatic and military representatives of the U.S. government approach Karzai to remove his brother when the CIA was funding him? (An Afghan expert told me that Karzai’s response was, in effect, “I’ll take him off my payroll when you take him off yours.) I’ve been asking both military and intelligence forces about the obvious conflicts here, but both sides deny there’s a problem. Which is, of course, nonsense.

And it should raise even more fundamental questions about the U.S. effort in Afghanistan: Do we really need to continue the effort at this level? Wouldn’t a presence that involved special ops, military and police training and some very targeted economic aid (that is, aid that can’t be stolen by government officials) be sufficient? Isn’t our most important national security goal here–and the main reason for a continuing, limited U.S. presence–to convince Pakistan that its Indian rivals won’t be able to use Afghanistan as a strategic asset?

At this point, those who say we need to “win” in Afghanistan seem totally deluded; and those who say we should “just get out” are too simplistic. The Obama Administration’s next big Afghan review in December seems a long way away: it’s time to start thinking about creatively reducing the U.S. mission now.

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  • Ike Jakson

    Your last line “it’s time to start thinking about creatively reducing the U.S. mission now” makes great sense.

    Is the President aware of your views? Do you think that they may agree with you?

  • jacobstoatgobbler

    To be honest, the current fiasco seems more akin to some rejected pages (ed note – “unrealistic”) of James Clavell’s “Whirlwind”, transplanted to Afghanistan. And never mind Wikileaks’ “What if US is seen as an exporter of Terrorism” expose, surely of more concern is the actual incompetence of it all. Perhaps the next CIA leak will be entitled “What if the US is seen as a bunch of Idiots by every country with a vowel in it’s name”….

    Is this a direct result of the multiple Intelligence agencies becoming unmanageable, the desire for the military to “own” the Afghanistan Theatre, or just the real-world consequences of leaving an allegedly former-US-sponsored-Petrochemical-manager in charge of a failed state?

  • http://elvisberg.wordpress.com Elvis Elvisberg

    At this point, those who say we need to “win” in Afghanistan seem totally deluded; and those who say we should “just get out” are too simplistic.
    -
    Phew! What a relief! For a sec I thought there might not be a sensible middle ground here. Happily, just like only invading Iraq after allowing a few months of inspections, or phasing out the ’01-’02 Bush tax policies after 10 years, or whittling down the stimulus to a smaller-sounding number, we have a centrist policy option! Everything will be fine.
    -
    Seriously, though, it’s only worth it to do “special ops, military and police training and some very targeted economic aid” if the benefits exceed the costs. If there’s no central government that anyone there wants, if the bulk of Afghans look on our efforts at aid and reform the way the Spaniards viewed the Bonapartes, and if special ops create more anti-US feeling than they diminish, then we ought not do those things.
    -
    I would certainly prefer to think that we live in a world where we can create positive effects, but it is not obvious that this is the case.

  • michaelfury

    Why? Why, Mr. Klein?

    “People who shut their eyes to reality simply invite their own destruction, and anyone who insists on remaining in a state of innocence long after that innocence is dead turns himself into a monster.”

    - James Baldwin

    http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2009/05/11/the-gas-must-flow/

  • nflfoghorn

    Leave special ops and drones in the mountains to hunt for the 9/11 bad guys, and take everybody else home.
    .
    Or is that too middle-groundish?

  • michaelfury

    “the list of CIA beneficiaries in Afghanistan is long and embarrassing, and far too associated with the Afghan drug trade for anyone’s comfort”

    Say it ain’t so, Mr. Klein.

    Gary Webb lives.

  • pintortwo

    Isn’t our most important national security goal here–and the main reason for a continuing, limited U.S. presence–to convince Pakistan that its Indian rivals won’t be able to use Afghanistan as a strategic asset?
    .
    No.
    .
    If it was, then we should just leave Afghanistan to Pakistan’s ally– the Taliban.
    .
    The most important goal here should be to prevent future acts of terror; but our on-going actions inspire terror and terrorist recruitment. So, Mr. Klein, what is really the goal?
    .
    The goal is a network of bases, as described by Rumsfeld in The National Defense Strategy of the United States, that would eventually stretch across the “arc of instability” – the Horn of Africa through South and Central Asia. (See Understanding the Long War -link, for details).
    .
    As we’ll have spent $71 billion on Afghani infrastructure by the end of the year (on forward bases for us and police / army outposts and service facilities to be run by private firms) the mission will remain to protect these assets– therefore, there is no creative way to reduce our military’s involvement while locals resist.

  • swissArmyBrainBETA

    aren’t you missing something here?

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