A New Papa Grizzly

Colorado, with its funky mix of liberal college cities and rural farming towns, ritzy ski resorts and barren tracts of mountain land, is a 2010 bellwether state. The statewide races are toss-ups, and factors beyond the platforms are playing big in most races. Gubernatorial hopeful and former Republican representative Scott McInnis keeps taking hits after a plagiarism scandal, which has led some to call for a brand new candidate awfully late in the game. My colleague Alex Altman dissected the GOP senate primary’s bickering over who’s the biggest outsider in a race where the candidates are a veritable “Can You Spot the Difference?” cartoon. And the state’s third congressional district has become a hot spot for national Republican endorsements of candidates who are trying to unseat three-term Democratic Rep. John Salazar in a part of the country carried by Bush and McCain.

First to get a boost was state legislator Scott Tipton, who was endorsed by conservative pundit Dick Morris. But that shout out was soon overshadowed by a rival Bob McConnell’s new weapon: the Sarah Palin stamp of approval. McConnell, a veteran and lawyer who got into the game by riding the Tea Party we’ve-had-enough wave, aggressively courted Palin after she expressed interest in the race. On Monday Palin posted an endorsement of McDonnell on her Facebook page.

Her justification, emblematic of the message-over-substance theme riddling so many races, was largely based on his background—mainly his military record and family-man status, topped off with mentions of his mountaineering feats. The one policy position she mentioned was his plan to “return our country back to our Constitutional roots of limited and fiscally responsible government.” That rather vague goal is standard Tea Party fare, and seven Tea Party groups have gotten behind McConnell as he gears up for the August 10 primary.

Unlike Palin’s announcement, McConnell gets into specifics about what his belief in more limited government means. In an interview with TIME, he said he’d like to see investigations into the possible elimination of the following institutions, amongst others: the Department of Education, the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Energy, NPR and the National Endowment for the Arts. The workload of those organizations, he says, would be better off on the shoulders of the states. McConnell is by no means the first to call for the (pretty unrealistic) elimination of such federal agencies, and it’s an overhaul echoed by a sign McConnell once carried to greet Obama in Colorado: “Angry mob of one.” He also wants to see senators elected to two-year rather than six-year terms, the income and estate taxes curbed (if not eliminated) and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann become speaker of the House.

So will the Palin brand help bring McConnell to Washington? Her endorsement record so far is checkered: nine wins and five losses, with 10 races yet to be decided. She begins her McConnell post by admitting, “An endorsement’s impact may be fickle and, as I warn the endorsed candidates, is oftentimes a double-edged sword.” But McConnell couldn’t be happier. “It’s huge and the timing could not have been better,” he says, noting the proximity of the primary. “She’s a lightning rod, and she recognizes that … so we went into this knowing that, but the power of what she brings to this national debate is important to me. I’m a man of courage and faith, and she’s a woman of courage and faith, and I like that. And I will stand beside her.”

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  • square1

    Colorado, with its funky mix of liberal college cities

    No city in Colorado is particularly liberal.

    Denver may skew slightly Democratic. Boulder is outdoorsy and has the University, but is far more conservative than people realize. Colorado Springs is one of the most conservative cities in the country. And Fort Collins is pretty much middle-of-the-road with plenty of mid-western-esque conservatism.

  • http://fsplanningrule.wordpress.com jhenceroth

    While Boulder is not quite the liberal haven that many assume (it only gives ~63% of its vote to dems, not 80%), Denver is actually very liberal, for more liberal than people realize. Recently it has been the most liberal major city in America. In the past few cycles it has given more of its vote share to democrats than any other major city.

  • http://fsplanningrule.wordpress.com jhenceroth

    The way things are shaping up, Colorado won’t actually be a bell-weather state at all. Republicans are increasingly shooting themselves in the foot in every race.

    In our Senate race, we have two candidates on the Republican side who are each trying as hard as they can to never mention their positions and whose campaign speeches increasingly make fun of the others’ gender (“Vote for Jane Norton, cause they other guys not man enough” or “Vote for Ken Buck because I don’t wear high heels”). The Dems are running either a popular former house speaker who has raised as much as the Rs or a popular incumbent Senator who has raised five times as much as the Rs.

    In our gubernatorial race, the front-runner was just accused of plagiarism and his opponent is currently fighting charges of fraudulent use of campaign funds. It has gotten so bad that the RGA is pulling out and Tom “the Tank” Tancredo is thinking about running as an independent. Meanwhile, the Dems are running the most popular politician in the state, the mayor of Denver and a former brewmaster.

    The Dems will hold three (of seven) house districts in the Denver-Boulder-Aurora metro area for sure. (CD-1 Degette, CD-2 Polis and CD-7 Perlmutter).

    The Rs will hold two in South Metro Denver and Colorado Springs (CD-5 Lamborn and CD-6 Coffman).

    Which leaves two districts, CD-3 (which is the focus of the article above) on the Western Slope and CD-4 in the Eastern Plains.

    in CD-3, as much as Ms. Steinmetz thinks she sees things workign for the Rs in this district as they have in other races around the country, she fails to acknowledge that the Salazars are a very popular family in Colorado and particularly in this district. They were raised on a ranch in this district and identify strongly with the independent western mindset of the district. While Bush and McCain were carrying this district, John Salazar was racking up sometimes double-digit wins. Unless John gets caught with a dead girl or a live boy, as they say, this seat is his. He is a rancher raised in this area and continues to represent them well. Not to mention the fact that he has raised significantly more money than anyone else in the race.

    CD-4 is probably the only one with the potential to be a bell-weather district, and I am surprised that Ms. Steinmetz did not focus her attention here. Besty Markey took control of the seat for the Dems for the first time in over thirty years in 2008. She has walked a tight line trying to support the administration when possible, but also trying to identify as independent and as a “blue-dog” (she voted no on the climate bill and yes on the health-care overhaul). Her opponent is a former state congressman, who is raising decent money (but far short of Rep. Markey, herself).

    Rep. Markey has represented her district well and has a good message, but in a district that voted for McCain in 2008, and with an opponent who has had only minor scandals so far, she is probably the only Colorado Politician to be in danger if this is a wave election. If it’s a small wave she could eke out a win, if it’s a big wave, it’s hard to see how she survives. The rest of the races will be decided by unique local conditions that are consisently breaking against the Rs.

  • apr2563

    Thanks for the update on Colorado. Sounds pretty positive.

  • bellagrazi

    You folks in the MSM just can’t help but be snarky when it comes to Gov. Palin. Whether you want to admit to it or not, her endorsements do matter. A lot. It won’t win the election for them, they have to do that for themselves. But it does put a huge spotlight on their candidacy, which is as good as money in the bank. I don’t know any other politician who has endorsed a candidate who has proven to be a game-changer in a race. I’m sure you’d agree, if you could just put your ideology aside.

  • cowtown07

    Jhenceroth,

    Not quite. While Denver certainly leans to the left, it is far more conservative than other major American cities (SF, Minneapolis, Chicago, etc.). And it is in the middle of a vast suburban expanse which is very conservative. All of that is to say that most of Colorado is very right-leaning with the exception of a few liberal towns.

    Don’t get too carried away with Denver’s liberalism. It’s more libertarian than anything else, and the city presents only a marginal political force compared with the millions of suburbanites who are your average Wal-Mart, Fox News conservatives.

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