As Adam noted last night, despite House passage of Financial Regulatory reform, the bill still seems in peril in the Senate with five of the six holdouts still seemingly wavering. But, frankly, going into a recess why would you declare your vote? If you were, say Scott Brown, would you a) declare that you’re going to buck your party and hand Dems a big victory four months before the midterms and go home to a week-long recess of Tea Party protests in front of your offices, or b) say you’re undecided and let concerned constituents lobby you during the July 4th holiday? Here’s a shocker: most politicians will opt for b except, apparently, Susan Collins, but Maine’s always been a slightly odd state politically speaking. I doubt Barney Frank and Chris Dodd would’ve closed the conference if they weren’t sure they have the votes. And last I checked, Harry Reid’s staff didn’t seem too worried. On the other hand, if the past 18 months have taught us anything it’s that senators on whose votes the fate of a very large bill depends can be capricious characters and what senators hear from constituents at home can often powerfully sway their votes.