Senate

Endangered Senate?

By Jay Newton-Small | @JNSmall | May 24, 2010 | +

Back in February I wrote about how the Republicans weren’t likely to take back the Senate this cycle. In order to really come within striking distance of the Democrats’ 10-seat advantage, I wrote, they’ve have to not only hold all their own seats and take Delaware, North Dakota, Nevada, Arkansas, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Indiana but they’d also have to win three of these four seats: New York, California, Wisconsin or Washington.

Three months and the landscape has shifted a bit. Back then Connecticut looked safe with Attorney General Richard Blumenthal ahead in the polls by more than 20 points. But that race has now been thrown into the toss up column after the New York Times reported Blumenthal exaggerated his military service record. And today Washington State Senator Dino Rossi indicated he’ll challenge Washington State’s Patti Murray. Rossi is a strong candidate for the GOP. He’s known statewide from his two failed bids for the governor’s mansion in 2004 and 2008. In 2004 he was actually certified the winner before a hand recount proved Christine Gregoire the winner by 133 votes. On the other hand, he’ll face a primary challenge from former NFL player Clint Didier who last week won Sarah Palin’s endorsement.

These two developments inch the GOP closer to taking back the Senate but they’d still need to not only capture those two seats but also win either California — where Barbara Boxer leads all three of her potential GOP challengers in polls (the primary is June 8th); or New York or Wisconsin – which given the lack of strong candidates in either of those state isn’t looking too likely right now.

Subscribe to Jay Newton-Small on Facebook
Related Topics: 2012 Election, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Senate, 2012 Election, Congress, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Sarah Palin, Senate

  • Latest on Swampland

    Image: Mark Halperin interviews Mitt Romney
    Mitt Romney May 23, 2012

    Romney Defends Bain Record, Hits Obama on Economy: ‘He Just Doesn’t Have a Clue’

    Mitt Romney lashed President Obama’s economic stewardship in an interview with TIME’s Mark Halperin on Wednesday, deflecting attacks on his years as a private equity executive and laying out how he hopes to take control of the economy as soon as he’s sworn in, should he defeat Obama in November.

    From our Partners

    Lewis Eisenberg, Major Romney Donor, Accuses Obama Of Demonizing Wall StreetHuffPost Politics

    Image: Presidential candidate Mitt Romney
    Mitt Romney May 23, 2012

    Mother of Mitt: How Lenore Romney’s Failed Campaign Shaped the Presumptive Republican Nominee

    This week’s TIME cover story, “The Mother of the Mitt Campaign,” tells the tale of how Lenore Romney’s 1970 run for U.S. Senate may have made a bigger impression on the Republican presidential candidate than his years spent as the son of a governor. Mitt’s father lost his own presidential bid, but it was the lessons from his mother’s loss that are more instructive as Romney enters the campaign stretch.

  • formerlyjames

    Endangered Senate? Endangered country?

  • http://toastie.st Toastie

    It’s all about the horse race. You don’t have a story unless you feed the notion that the GOP can take back Congress. Otherwise, it’s just typical mid-term losses for the incumbent party. Boring. Any responsible analysis of the “anger” out there concludes that there’s no consistent platform that the angry voters advocate. They hate government trying to fix healthcare. They’re outraged that the government is trying hard enough to fix an oil spill. They want the government to stop spending so much, but then they say Obama’s gonna slash their Medicare. They want to cut foreign aid, unaware that only accounts for 0.5% of the budget. Lower taxes? Told that 95% of Americans have lower federal taxes under Obama, most anti-Obama voters just won’t accept what is fact. No “fair-and-balanced” media outlet will dare offend American voters by telling them they’re flat-out wrong. Obama and the Democrats need a fight for their survival. The balance of power in Congress has to be at stake…or else TIME has nothing to blog about.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    “[Clint Didier] has received nearly $273,000 in federal farm subsidies since 1995, according to a database of U.S. Department of Agriculture subsidies maintained by the Environmental Working Group (EWG).”

    I don’t know how kosher that is for the anti-government types in the Tea Party.

  • hellslittlestangel

    Political reporting as a 364-day season hot stove league.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    Toastie.
    .
    You are making the classic error of liberals and centrists nationwide: you seem to believe that the fact that the new conservative agenda is completely and totally incoherent, economically, mathematically and historically unsound is actually going to prevent them from winning elections in some part of the country.
    .
    In some districts, if you’ve got all of the right buzz words, you’ll have a war chest full of big business donations and a following of Tea Party or Tea Party-like being who are dazed, confused and damn proud to be dazed as confused.
    .
    Some people prefer confusion to reality.

  • anon76

    That’s excellent news for the GOP, Jay. It’s a good thing they don’t have to defend any of their own seats in Ohio or Kentucky, and that the national economic climate (and Democratic enthusiasm) haven’t changed at all since February. Top-notch analysis! Now, don’t mind me as I continue to whistle whilst walking past this graveyard.

  • swissArmyBrainBETA

    “some prefer confusion to reality”
    .
    patrick, your characterization is almost completely backwards. its precisely because reality IS so confusing that many are taken by the simplistic rhetoric and ideas of the tea party. it offers confidence and the sense of understanding – the opposite of confusion.

  • apr2563

    Jay, Rossi doesn’t have a chance in h*ll of beating Murray. After having lost twice, even one being a close call, the people in Washington are not impressed by this guy. This is the best the Republicans could do is a 2 x loser.
    So far the pundocracy has been wrong on their predictions. It is there wishful thinking to have the Dems overturned in the Sen. What a great story. Doesn’t matter if it is possible, but what a great story. As someone wrote above, the fact of the usual midterm losses would be too boring.
    Also, I would bet on Blumenthal over the cheesy McMahon, aren’t steroids wonderful candidate. New York and California will stay safely Democratic.

  • http://jcapan.wordpress.com jcapan

    I’d be a lot more excited if that read “Extinct Senate?” as in abolishment.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    “…it offers confidence and the sense of understanding..”
    .
    Conditionally agreed.
    .
    That is it gives them a false sense of understanding. When going beyond the most superficial level, the Tea Party is the ultimate state of confusion.
    .
    I’ve always been completely confident in the ability of people with average or even below average intelligence to understand complex concepts when they are compelled to by economic or political need.
    .
    Personally, I find both our nation’s obsession with entertainment mostly responsible for our obesity, our academic lagging behind that of the developed world as well as why people tune into Fox and other simplistic media sources where they are easily manipulated. TV and movies are prone to having good guys, bad guys, a few gun fights, really cool stuff exploding and simple plots. A good deal of people, despite having the intelligence to do otherwise, flock to the simple answers so that they can get back to watching their favorite soap opera or whatever.
    .
    When looked at in anything other than the most superficial way, progressive and liberal ideas are the most coherent solutions.
    .
    I think you would agree.

  • kevin

    Seriously. Ohio and Kentucky are in play for Democrats, and what once seemed to be slamdunk victories for the Republicans in Nevada and Florida are now tossups.

blog comments powered by Disqus