In the Arena

It Looks Like Sestak

AP has called the Pennsylvania Senate primary election for Joe Sestak over Arlen Specter. Earlier, in Kentucky, Rand Paul won as a libertarian tea partier running for U.S. Senate against Mitch McConnell’s favored candidate. What’s the big message? A no-brainer: not good for incumbents. I suspect that Joe Sestak will have a better chance against libertarian tea partier Pat Toomey in the general election. Sestak can run as an anti-establishment outsider–President Obama et al supported Specter–and he can run against Toomey’s libertarian extremism (privatize social security, deregulate Wall street).

Updates to come.

Update the First: Democrat Mark Critz defeated Republican Tim Burns in the special election to replace John Murtha. Republicans will say Critz ran as a Republican–pro-life, pro-gun, against health care reform. Democrats will say he won as a Democrat…and Critz will make it one vote harder for the Republicans to win the house. I don’t know. I report, you decide.

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  • http://phd9.blogspot.com Paul Dirks

    What’s the big message? A no-brainer: not good for incumbents.
    .
    By defenition, to generalize is to throw away information. The big message is that Joe Sestak and Rand Paul won. If there’s any message from that, it’s that people with firm beliefs have and edge over folks who try to occupy the mushy middle.

  • hellslittlestangel

    Bye, Arlen. I’ll always remember you as a not-horrible Republican.

  • michaelfury

    “The FBI took me to Parkland Hospital. I had no idea what I was doing there. They escorted me through a labyrinth of corridors and up to one of the top floors of Parkland. I didn’t know where we were. They took me into this little room where I met Arlen Specter. He talked to me for a few minutes, trying to act real friendly, then this woman, a stenographer, came in and sat behind me. He had told me that this interview would be confidential, then I looked around and this woman was taking notes. I reminded him that the discussion was to be private and he told the woman to put down her notebook, which she did. But when I looked around again she was writing. I got mad and told Specter, ‘You lied to me. I want this over.’ He asked me why I wouldn’t come to Washington, and I said, ‘Because I want to stay alive.’ He asked why I would think that I was in danger and I replied, ‘Well, if they can kill the President, they can certainly get me!’ He replied that they already had the man that did it and I told him, ‘No, you don’t!’

    He kept trying to get me to change my story, particularly regarding the number of shots. He said I had been told how many shots there were and I figured he was talking about what the Secret Service told me right after the assassination. His inflection and attitude was that I knew what I was supposed to be saying, why wouldn’t I just say it. I asked him, ‘Look, do you want the truth or just what you want me to say?’ He said he wanted the truth, so I said, ‘The truth is that I heard between four and six shots.’ I told him, ‘I’m not going to lie for you.’ So he starts talking off the record. He told me about my life, my family, and even mentioned that my marriage was in trouble. I said, ‘What’s the point of interviewing me if you already know everything about me?’ He got angrier and finally told me, ‘Look, we can even make you look as crazy as Marguerite Oswald [Lee Oswald's mother] and everybody knows how crazy she is. We could have you put in a mental institution if you don’t cooperate with us.’ I knew he was trying to intimidate me…”

    - Jean Hill

    http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2009/11/22/he-who-controls-the-past/

  • hellslittlestangel

    Was she related to Betty and Barney Hill?

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    If you want to generalize try voters choose Democrats! Specter was a Republican and despite making a deal for the 60th vote when Dems needed it, voters have decided not to honor that deal and went for the real Democrat. Of course the fact that Specter seemed incapable of remembering that he was no longer a Republican on the campaign trail might have had something to do with it. In Murtha’s district they went for the Democrat and while technically not an incumbent, his ties to Murtha is certainly incumbency in spirit. Lastly, the media only seems to care about Rand Paul in Kentucky, but its telling that both individuals in the Democratic primary in Kentucky garnered more votes that Rand Paul. So I would say that more voters chose Democrats and it’s Republicans that need to worry. Because come November tea party candidates will just look plain crazy and the GOP has nothing to offer at all. Now pundits are sticking to the Democrats facing tidal wave scenario despite the 9-point switch in the generic Congressional but I don’t ever expect the media to admits it might be wroing. but they’ve ben wrong consistently since 2007 so at least they’re consistent.

  • tstar3

    Thanks for being one of the more rationale people in the peanut gallery. I have avoided anything political the entire day out of fear that all the pundits would be saying this was the WORST day ever for the democrats….. even without the first vote being cast.

    .

    And yet again, all tonight proves is that all politics is local. And that the tea party insurgence is a “sexy” way for the press to say some Americans are pissed off. While Rand Paul won the KY nomination handily, I believe he got less number of votes than either Dem candidate…kind of knocks MS’s voter gap enthusiasm blogpost a few notches down.

    .
    Also, Critz district is the ONLY one in the country to have gone for Kerry in 04 and McCain in 08, so all of the ingredients for a Rep win was there..and yet he lost. Now the human manatee Hannity is saying he ran as a Republican (anti-HCR, pro-life, pro-gun etc)…yeah. but he forgot to mention that there was an ACTUAL republican running. Why go for the burger when you can have the steak?

    .

    Sestak win is great for Dems because he is the strongest candidate, and Toomey will look more like the extremist that he is.

    All in all..The losers of tonight were the establishment, Mitch “the human lightbulb” McConnell and MC Mikey Steele.

    .

    Looks like your compatriots will have to find another storyline Joe.

  • Art Pepper

    If a lifelong* Republican can’t win the Democratic nomination, what is happening to our beloved two-party system?

    (* OK, since 1965…)

  • textee

    I had never heard Sestak speak until tonight. He shares a common trait among those few remaining male Democrats. He’s effeminate.

  • Art Pepper

    As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a random incoherent post by textee approaches 1.

  • tstar3

    Aww..poor textee the truth hurts, huh? Just like a child, when they are confronted with facts, they throw poo.

    VIVA LA REVOLUCION..

  • groenhagen2

    “All in all..The losers of tonight were the establishment, Mitch “the human lightbulb” McConnell and MC Mikey Steele.”

    You forgot the man-child who occupies the Oval Office, who has now gone 0-4 (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Virginia). It’s 0-5 if you count the man-child’s NCAA pick.

    If it’s an anti-incumbent year, the fascists in the Democrat Party should be shaken in their boots since they have more incumbents.

  • http://www.simonvinkenoog.nl/beeld/Yogi%20-%20Annelies%20Rigter.jpg yogi

    I think the real loser this night was OchoCinco. Guess he has to go back to dancing after a touchdown.

  • stuartzechman

    Joe Klein:
    .
    Toomey’s libertarian extremism (privatize social security, deregulate Wall street)
    .
    Were you a libertarian extremist when you wrote this in praise of George W Bush’s Social Security privatization scheme (link to Joe Klein rhapsodizing about Social Security privatization in Time circa 2005, entitled “The Incredible Shrinking Democrats”)

    The President has merely stated the obvious, that reductions [in Social Security benefits] will be necessary. Reid…made the absurd comparison between Bush’s very conservative investment-account proposal and Las Vegas gaming tables.
    .
    Bush’s private investment accounts, combined with a reduction in benefits or higher taxes, is one way for baby boomers to lighten the burden of our retirement upon our children. There are other ways, but none without pain. A far more profitable—and absolutely necessary—reform would be a market-oriented overhaul of Medicare, but Dems just say no to that too.

    Was that a libertarian extremist phase you went through in 2005, Joe Klein?
    .
    Or will you escape through some kind of qualifier, i.e. that you favored Bush’s rational approach to privatizing Social Security, whereas libertarians’ privatization is somehow worse? You’d take the plans of the guys who tried to set up a stock exchange in Baghdad during Bremer’s CPA over libertarian ideologues like Toomey? Is that it?
    .
    Do you or do you not still favor “Bush’s private investment accounts, combined with a reduction in benefits or higher taxes” as a means to address Social Security, Joe Klein?
    .
    (We’ll just leave the “libertarian extremism” of deregulating the financial sector alone for now, instead of bringing up where you were on the issue when Clinton signed Larry Summers’ and Bob Rubins’ masterpiece of compromise, Gramm-Leach-Bliley into law, OK?)

  • slowp

    Sestak = Navy Rear Admiral; 3 Defense Distinguished Service Medals; 2 Legion of Merit; 2 Navy Distinguished Service Medals; 2 Meritorious Service Medals; Joint Service Commendation Medal.

    Textee = ??

  • 53_3

    A point to everyone, including MS:
    .
    These are mostly primaries

  • shepherdwong

    “Were you a libertarian extremist when you wrote this in praise of George W Bush’s Social Security privatization scheme (link to Joe Klein rhapsodizing about Social Security privatization in Time circa 2005, entitled “The Incredible Shrinking Democrats”)”

    So why has the reporting shifted? Maybe it was just deference to power: as long as America was widely perceived as being on the way to a permanent Republican majority, few were willing to call right-wing extremism by its proper name. Maybe it took a Democrat in the White House to give some observers the courage to say the obvious.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/17/opinion/17krugman.html?hp

  • swissArmyBrainBETA

    good god do you remember everything you ever read or are you perhaps some sort of spirit who’s eternal purpose is haunting Joe Klein? has anyone ever seen Stuart in person? was he translucent? Joe do you remember ever murdering anyone maybe?
    .
    Thanks though really.

  • swissArmyBrainBETA

    not happy about choosing between Sestak and Toomey. I watched Sestak v Specter debate and Sestak immediately reminded me of John Edwards. Dodgy, fake, untrustworthy. To some extent this is all a game to Specter as well, but the man comes right out and says why he switched parties. 1000 points for that. Edwards wasted little time proving my instinct right. I wouldn’t expect any less from Sestak
    .
    I know only as much about Toomey as I could figure out in 5 minutes before heading to the primary today. His competition looked like some sort of joke. Every third word on her site was God/Jesus so I just went with Toomey who at least studied political philosophy and graduated from Harvard. at the very least he had to be smart. I’ll look more into him before november i promise
    .
    at least I have Corbett to be happy about. Most of the people I know here were big supporters of this guy Rohrer who, according to my 5 min search, was a product of Bob Jones university and is probably a very proud alumni…

  • http://jcapan.wordpress.com jcapan

    Swiss,
    .
    So you’re OK with influential pundits being baldly inconsistent, fingers raised to monitor prevailing winds? They never need to account for changes in philosophy? I know SZ can sound like the ghost of columns past but what he’s pointing out explains why the punditocracy’s influence is waning. Their role is anything but adversarial–whatever the village is down with, the courtiers are down with too.
    .
    Until that dynamic changes, Joe & his ilk will be held in the sort of richly deserved contempt shown here. And don’t worry about Joe–such blows to his glass ego pale in comparison to the colossal scale of suffering Americans are experiencing (in large measure due to MSM failures).

  • apr2563

    Dee: Thanks for pointing out total vote count. For months pundits have been pointing out polls that show more enthusiam by Rep. voters. No one I heard tonight pointed out the fact that there was more Dem. turn out by a significant number, at least in the last reports I counted. Where was that Rep. enthusiasm. The Dem candidates even out numbered the Rep. candidates in Ky.
    .
    My hope is that people are disgusted with the extremism and “just say no culture of the Reps.

  • apr2563

    textee you really are so pathetically insecure.

  • apr2563

    I think, more to the point, that pundits remember what they have said or written.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    Wow!
    .
    By NYC standards I am regarded as mildly homophobic (mildly) but, Textee, it seems like you can’t look at a man without imagining gay sex.
    .
    You, really, have some issues, man.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    Aren’t you in jail yet?
    .
    Threatening fellow posters with bringing in your former Marine buddies is a threat.
    .
    I, also, have to wonder how tough you and your buddies are when you have to send in a squadron of 50 year olds to take down one, unarmed commercial real estate agent.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    I think textee can’t hear the words “Rear Admiral” without getting confused.

  • m0mentom0ri

    Gay jokes? What are you, 12 years old? Does your mom know you’re using the computer?

  • groenhagen2

    “Sestak can run as an anti-establishment outsider–President Obama et al supported Specter–and he can run against Toomey’s libertarian extremism (privatize social security, deregulate Wall street).”

    Extremism? Klein needs to get out more and talk with regular people. If you hang out with left-wingers all the time, those in the center in this center-right country might seem extreme.

    Sestak is hardly an outsider. He is essentially Bill Clinton’s male version of Monica Lewinsky.

  • groenhagen2

    fatpat:

    You’ll be in a mental institution (if you’re not already there) long before I ever see the inside of a jail cell.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    “Gay jokes? What are you, 12 years old?”
    .
    At the end of the day, I respect individuals if they are heterosexual or gay.
    .
    Textee, clearly, does not.
    .
    You should hear what kind of jokes all male offices tell when there are no women in the room.
    .
    Cab driving, security guard, car sales and commercial real estate are those male dominated professions. I have done all of them. When a woman or an actual gay person comes by, we stop right away. You can always tell who just told the dirtiest joke he fears a woman may have heard by who’s face is red.
    .
    If I made you laugh, that is good. If not, I don’t believe I have advocated for the hatred of anybody.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    Enforcement may be slow, but, you did break harassment laws when you contacted my work.
    .
    “Thank you for filing a complaint with the Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3)…

    Your complaint has been successfully submitted. Please retain the following information for future contacts
    The IC3′s mission is to serve as a vehicle to receive, develop, and refer criminal complaints regarding the rapidly expanding arena of cyber crime. The IC3 aims to give the victims of cyber crime a convenient and easy-to-use reporting mechanism.

    Complaint Status
    The IC3 receives thousands of complaints each month and does not have the resources to respond to inquiries regarding the status of complaints. It is the IC3′s intention to review all complaints and refer them to law enforcement and regulatory agencies having jurisdiction. Ultimately, investigation and prosecution are at the discretion of the receiving agencies.

    Evidence
    It is important that you maintain any evidence you may have relating to your complaint. Evidence may include canceled checks, credit card receipts, phone bills, mailing envelopes, mail receipts, a printed copy of a website, copies of emails, or similar items. Please keep the items in a safe location, in case you are requested to provide them for investigative purposes”
    .
    I’ll call back the FBI for an update.
    .
    An agent said that it was worthwhile to pursue a complaint against you.
    .
    Due to the interstate nature of your harassment, and the interstate nature of your threat, it is in FBI jurisdiction.
    .
    However, it will most likely be local law enforcement who will be the ones to, literally, knock at your door.
    .
    Asking the FBI if it is a reasonable complaint is a good reason to believe that it is.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    “Sestak is hardly an outsider. He is essentially Bill Clinton’s male version of Monica Lewinsky.”
    .
    In addition to extremely poor judgment in other matters, your on topic entry makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    Please contact your local field office if you do not believe me when I tell you that you have broken the law, that you will face prosecution and that it is in the FBI’s jurisdiction;
    .
    1300 Summit
    Kansas City, Missouri 64105
    (816) 512-8200
    .
    I strongly suggest, to limit your risk that you stay out of Swampland and contact an attorney.

  • nibblybits

    The only thing to generalize is that the low turnout of the most motivated, most dissatisfied, most base voters decided a few off-year, off-the-normal-voting-calendar elections. It’s to be expected that the most angry against the status quo bothered to vote, especially in bad weather in May.
    .
    What this means for November for the general election is…not much. Other than the choices have been narrowed down to the more partisan ones.

  • tstar3

    Let me get this straight the man-child whose PARTY has won 7 of 7 special elections. DEDE Scozzafav anyone? Just like Textee you throw poo rather than facts. What about the fact that in PA-12 Reps lost the only county that flipped from Kerry to McCain in 08. What about the fact that the teabaggers could not rounded up less votes than the Dems for their hero?

    .

    So Sir, whenever you have facts to back up your opinions, you will be allowed back to reality, until then tell the Gingerbread Man I said hello.

  • nibblybits

    You’re right about the MSM choosing their own narrative despite the facts. Yesterday on Morning Joe, they were obsessed about Blumenthal but not one mention of Souder and his affair or Lowden accepting an illegal contribution of a bus from a contributor.
    .
    And today, they had Rand Paul on to talk about the Tea Party and McConnell, but no invite for the Dem who won in that state. And certainly no mention of the vote differential as you just did. How curious.

  • omorka

    What’s wrong with being effeminate?

  • joyfulalternative

    From what I see in the newspapers about Attorney General Corbett, he looks like a partisan crook, indicting lots of Democrats, high and low, for having state-paid party staffers do campaign work, while ignoring Republicans who do the same or worse (like having staff campaign for a sister who’s running for the state supreme court), and everybody knows it. Or soliciting campaign funds from people he’s threatening to indict.

    Then again, Onorato is said by my friends in Pittsburgh to be a Democrat only because he knew from an early age that he’d never win even the dogcatcher slot in Allegheny County with a Republican label. I’m not too pleased with him, but maybe you’d be.

  • Ivy_B

    Not very joyful alternatives for November, are they?

  • swissArmyBrainBETA

    jcapan, the “thanks though really” at the bottom of my post was sincere. stuart’s was a valuable catch as they almost always are. there are few things i would like more than to see Joe actually fight back against his most determined liberal critic once in a while

  • swissArmyBrainBETA

    http://www.tomcorbettforgovernor.com/news/philadelphia-inquirer-endorsement-editorial-republicans-best-choice

    and i looked more into bonus-gate… seems like prosecutions of the 14 or so republicans were serious – not just for show. also, in his big press releases he didn’t seem any more dramatic than he needed to be so i doubt all those indictments were just politics.

  • Ivy_B

    swissArmy, one of my problems with Corbett’s continuing prosecutions is that it gave him a continuing level of press and press coverage that was inappropriate and the timing of which indictment was totally under his control. He could have resigned his position and let his office continue with the prosecutions.

    I also have a problem with his spending lots of state money, while among other things library database access funds were cut 75% last year and maybe more this year, to join that suit against HCR. The suit will go on with or without him and his joining it is campaigning with my tax dollars IMO.

  • joyfulalternative

    Swiss, you must be new to Pennsylvania. Peg’s been running and running and running for as long as I can remember, sometimes as a Republican and sometimes on a third-party ticket. Her motivation is abortion, and AFAIK, she doesn’t care about anything else (although from what you say, she’s also a budding theocrat).

    BREAKING NEWS! Corbett subpoenas Twitter accounts of critics.

  • swissArmyBrainBETA

    Ivy- its true the timing was for political gain but if timing things for press coverage makes a politician too corrupt for your support… I just don’t know how you’re ever going to bring yourself to vote for anyone at all.
    .
    joyfulalternative- thanks for the info. im not new to PA but im very new to following state races. knowing names of the governor and both sens was good enough for me over the past 4 years of college

  • pauljenk

    That is an excellent point, nibblybits. I was recently checking the numbers at RealClearPolitics and it looks like if the election were tomorrow, the Dems would lose a few seats in the Senate and House, but would not lose the majority in either. Things are not looking for for a lot of incumbents Dem or Rep – which naturally hits the majority party harder. On the other hand, the Tea Party extremists may be doing more harm to the Reb party then the Dems as they are 1) going after Reb moderates, and 2) making themselves look ridiculous to many moderates like myself and making the choice in Nov clear and obvious to all but other right wing extremists.

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