Republican Party

The Stupak Curse?

By Jay Newton-Small | @JNSmall | May 12, 2010 | +

As Adam notes, incumbents should take Rep. Allan Mollohan’s loss of his primary as a shot across the bow but there are 13 members it should terrify. Mollohan was one of the 14 Democrats who voted for Bart Stupak’s amendment in November and for health care reform on final passage. Republicans are targeting this group, accusing them of flip flopping on abortion; the GOP even has a website called Stupak’s Sellouts. Already Michigan’s Stupak has announced he’s retiring, as has Dave Obey, the powerful Appropriations Committee Chairman from Wisconsin. The National Republican Congressional Committee singled out Mollohan, the group’s first casualty at the polls, with an advertisement right after the vote. Mollohan, a 28-year House veteran, was defeated by a Democratic candidate who attacked from his right. State Senator Michael Oliverio, 46, received the endorsement of the National Right to Life Political Action Committee and benefitted from ads and voter outreach run by the Susan B. Anthony list, a pro-life group.

Of the remaining 12, six are in districts won by John McCain in 2008: Baron Hill (IN-09), Chris Carney (PA-10), Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL), John Salazar (CO-03), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) and Tom Perriello (VA-05). Two of the remaining five are are also in trouble: Pennsylvania’s Paul Kanjorski is facing the primary battle of his life; Ron Klein is rated the most endangered South Florida Dem*; and Ohio’s Steve Dreihaus is in a race rated a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report. Only Texas’s Ciro Rodriguez, Indiana’s Joe Donnelly and Dennis Cardoza and Jim Costa of California look likely to escape their health care votes unscathed. Note: Brad Ellsworth also falls in this group, though he’s not running for reelection as he’s running for Evan Bayh’s Senate seat in Indiana.

*Correction: The NRCC website was wrong: Ron Klein is pro-choice and never voted for the Stupak amendment. Apologies to Klein and to our readers, I should have double checked this and not relied on the GOP website.

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Related Topics: abortion, allan mollohan, Baron Hill, bart stupak, Chris Carney, Ciro Rodriguez, Dave Obey, Dennis Cardoza, Earl Pomeroy, health care reform, Jim Costa, Joe Donnelly, John Salazar, Kathy Dahlkemper, Michael Oliverio, Paul Kanjorski, Ron Klein, Steve Dreihaus, tom perriello, 2012 Election, Congress, Democratic Party, Health Care, Republican Party

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  • http://forgottenlord.livejournal.com forgottenlord

    Is it really the Stupak curse or is it Dems in red districts in an anti-incumbent cycle are getting walloped by redder challengers? Why does everything have to circle around abortion?

  • Paul-no not that one

    Shhh you! Follow the script!

  • sacredh

    2006 and 2008 were wave elections. We’re dealing with the worst recession in 70 years. The democrats are going to lose quite a few seats. After picking up so many in the last two cycles, the real stunner would be in we didn’t suffer fairly big losses. Like forgotten lord said, red districts going red again seems pretty natural to me.
    .
    As of now, I think it’s likely we may lose the House but keep the Senate. Losing both would surpise me. Keeping both would be a bit of a surprise too.

  • dcalifornian

    Steve Dreihaus is from Ohio not Indiana. Also, you should probably note somewhere in your analysis that Mollohan has been consistently facing accusations of ethics violations the past few cycles, with an undervalued guest house coming to light in just the past few days.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    I would think that pro-life people would be getting tired of the Republicans by now since they promise, promise and promise more that they will make some attempt to either challenge Roe vs Wade through legislation or introduce a constitutional amendment but have done absolutely nothing in either of those terms.

    Health Car Reform did not overturn the Hide Amendment, so, even if Republicans had lifted a finger for the pro-life cause (which they have not on a federal level) this would be an absurd attack only the most ill informed of the pro-life voters would accept.

    Obviously abortion is the law of the land and can not be overturned with any ease, so, I just see pro-life groups as tilting at windmills.

    We all know what would happen if Roe v Wade was overturned: the Republicans would loose the 15% of Americans who both call themselves born again Christians and conservative (10% of the born again, like Jimmy Carter, call themselves liberal or progressive) and about half of the Catholic vote they are getting (about 20% of Americans are Catholic) and vanish.

    Without that scarecrow of Roe v Wade, Republicans would be getting only 20% to 40% of the popular vote!

    They wouldn’t kill the goose that laid the golden egg by actually seeking to overturn Roe v Wade. Only pro-life Democrats would do that.

  • http://erieangel.wordpress.com erieangel

    Kathy Dahlkemper. I have one thing to about this woman–she’s history. PennAction, a democratic activist group which encourages people across PA to vote for the democrats aren’t even supporting her. They have recognized the follow of supporting her over former republican Congressman Phil English. This year PennAction is telling people to give serious consideration to the republican candidate. It might be better for our district, as Phil English had been far better for our district than Dahlkemper turned out to be.

  • gysgt213

    I’m having a really really hard time feeling sorry for incumbents who lose. Be they democrat or republicans. Besides most of these people will wind up at a lobbying firm or think tank influencing policy anyway. They just won’t have a rep or sen attached to their name and will be responsible to no one for havoc they sow.

  • newfreedomblog

    This election cycle the meme is pretty simple, and the handwriting on the wall has been very obvious.
    .
    “Re-elect NOBODY”
    .
    It certainly cannot hurt that is for sure. Both Republicans and Democrats. Nancy, Harry and eventually Barack should be kicked to the curb soon too!
    .
    Enjoy!
    . :D

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    I’m glad to know rusty that you don’t discriminate: you hate everybody equally.

  • deconstructiva

    …especially women journalists (including here).

  • newfreedomblog

    I am glad that you feel the need to comment on nearly all of my comments, patricksartor. Too bad it is not equally apparent to you that I could give a flying rat’s A$$ what you think about me.
    .
    Does that still make me a “hater”?
    .
    Have a great day Mr Sartor. Try not to put too many people in your “crosshairs” today.

  • http://theblindspotsofgod.wordpress.com lawyermommy

    I am very perplexed by the Democratic apparent inertia regarding the problems they will encounter in November.

    The anti-incumbency fervor, I think in large part, is being promoted and perfected by the Republicans and it is sweeping both parties.

    One thing that has always irked me about the Democrats is that they always are REACTIVE to most changes in the political environment.

    It cannot be such a herculean task to device something sustainable and workable to diffuse this fervor.
    It is not unusual to want new blood and change prior to elections but these changes, I believe, are a precursor to the sweeping defeat of hoards of Democrats.

    Reactive politics has always been the undoing of the Democrats and now they are following their age old script. Pathetic really.

    Yes, incumbents on both sides are having a difficult time in primaries etc. BUT the ultimate goal is to unseat as many Democrats in November.

    A few sentences to the DEMS… Get real. Get your house in order, STOP BEING REACTIVE. You are the ultimate target of all this drama. Do something already! Gosh!

    LM
    http://theblindspotsofgod.wordpress.com/2010/05/01/fully-support-gun-ownership-and-pity-women-who-do-not/

  • apr2563

    Before everyone starts screaming massive wins by Republicans, please keep in mind the out party usually picks up seats in the off year elections. That said this will be a tough year for Dems. I can’t get choked up when a blue dog looses. But, we need a majority to keep leadership in Dem hands. Dems still have more money to spend on campaigns. And remember the Republicans still have the dysfunctional Michael Steele and the RNC. They will depend on their usual outside sources to do their dirty work. And, then deny affiliation. It has been their game for decades.

  • deconstructiva

    apr, we’ll still need to see if Tea Party will split R votes by running third candidates (a repeat of NY-32?). Are you noticing any TP’s still active in your area? Withoug name dropping, where I live a TP ran for the House seat R primary but got his ass kicked. He’s not running this fall but his website openly admits searching for any true conservative candidates, which may or may not be R’s (the House seat is D but will be a tight race again since district is quite lavender). Time will tell.

  • apr2563

    de: Although I live in N. California in a suburb of Sacramento, it is in the Sierra foothills. Very red. My rep is Republican McClintock who will be reelected. He replaced John Doolittle. Nuff said. My district has enough millitia and TPers to be located in Arizona.
    .
    However, TP rallys are pretty lame. Not much turn out.
    The Republican party in this state is so marginalized by their craziness that they are usually ignored.
    .
    I don’t think the TPers will have much influence here. Tom Campbell will undoubtedly win the Rep primary for the Senate. He is too moderate by TP standards so they wont back him. My bet is Boxer retains her seat.
    .
    I will also bet which ever billionaire, Poizner or Whitman, wins the Rep primary for Governor, Mr. Moonbeam (Jerry Brown) will pervail. He has said little and let the two plutocrats devour each other. They have no real TP support.

  • sacredh

    The last TP rally they had here (that I went to) had three protesters with signs marching around in a circle with about a dozen people watching them. There was a much larger one in Steubenville with almost a hundred people involved. It broke up in about an hour and a half. Our local TP split over taxes. Half didn’t want any taxes and the other half wanted a levy to pass again to pay for services.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    “Too bad it is not equally apparent to you that I could give a flying rat’s A$$ what you think about me.”
    .
    Then why would you possibly want to respond to me?
    .
    LOL
    .
    Obviously you do care about what people think of you.

  • 3xfire3

    The recent Tea Party type meeting I attended on May 1 had over 1,500 people in attendance. Using Barack’s own saying, they were “fired up and read to go”.
    .
    The Tea Party will be a major factor in the 2010 elections and will work with Republicans to elect the best people to congress and as governors.
    .
    Liberals hopes that they will split the party when it comes to election time are only a dream that will not come true. Democratic losses will be massive as mainstream Americans reject the leftward direction Democrats are trying to take our country.

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