Morning Must Reads: Tough Call

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Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images

–Charlie Crist is expected to announce he’s running as a no party affiliation candidate at an event in St. Petersburg this afternoon. There’s a lot of good analysis out there on what it means for the race; more on this later.

–Marc Ambinder reports Crist reached out to the White House and they wouldn’t take the call.

–Nate Silver talks with Tim Kaine about the Dems’ 2010 message.

–Ambinder asks whom they’re messaging to, and warns Democrats they may be missing the mark on an older, whiter midterm electorate.

–Over at the Post, Karen looks at the Republican effort to win the trophy trifecta: Obama, Biden and Reid’s Senate seats. The very fact that they’re in play says a lot about the cycle.

Dan Balz parses the polls and sees two points of light for Democrats amid the gloom: more trust to handle the country’s problems and independents rewarming to the president.

–I’d say their problem is the economy. Even with recovery, high unemployment is likely to continue and there’s widespread perception the stimulus was flop. A new Pew survey finds the politically odious TARP is seen as more effective (granted, to a very different end.)

–Obama plans to fill the three vacancies at the Fed with San Francisco Federal Reserve president Janet Yellen, Maryland Financial Regulation Commissioner Sarah Raskin and MIT professor (also former Peter Orszag co-author) Peter Diamond.

–Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer and Bob Menendez are crafting an immigration bill with border security benchmarks up front.

–Obama doesn’t see it happening this year.

–The controversial Arizona immigration law may be tested by referendum, which would delay implementation until 2012.

–Mike Bloomberg calls the legislation “national suicide.”

–Bob McDonnell says it has “shades of some other regimes that weren’t necessarily helpful to democracy.”

–And the Consumers Union went through with that whole “bankers eating people” thing:

What did I miss?

Related Topics: 2012 Election, Congress, Democratic Party, Economy, Miscellany, Republican Party, Senate, White House
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    The Phony War: Obama and Romney Are Debating Character, Not Policy

    More than five months from Election Day, the back-and-forth about Mitt Romney’s record at Bain already feels played out. Unfortunately, there’s good reason to expect the campaign continues in this vein indefinitely. Neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney are terribly interested in dwelling on policy platforms. Romney’s plan to slash spending and keep taxes low on the wealthy isn’t especially popular, at least not at any level of detail beyond a blithe promise to shrink the deficit. Meanwhile, Obama’s signature first-term achievements, like health care, the stimulus and Wall Street reform, are all unpopular or tricky to sell. (The Dodd-Frank bill is the most popular of these, but hyping it means offending wealthy donors.) So what we’re getting instead is a superficial duel about character–and, worse, one that’s based on the largely false premise that the better man can better “manage” the economy back to health.

  • nflfoghorn

    It’s hard to prove that something didn’t happen because of TARP. TARP avoided hundreds of corporate shutdowns, millions more out of work and a possible depression. Job creation hasn’t happened as fast as anyone wanted. No, YOU might not have a job yet but if the economy hadn’t been righted by TARP there would be no company to even place an application.
    .
    The PONs (Party of NO) don’t have a viable alternative to create jobs. Their blind support of laissez-faire free enterprise in large part got us into this mess to begin with.

  • grape_crush

    What did I miss?

    - We sang every song that driver knew / Freedom’s just another word for…

    “This isn’t to say that talk about freedom is a mask for racism, but rather than talk about “freedom” is just talk about conservatism.”

    - Crazy, but that’s how it goes / Millions of people living as foes

    TANCREDO: Now they very well not want to show it because they want to propagate this whole thing that’s going on about birthers and making it —

    COLMES: Well they are coo-coo for coco puffs.

    TANCREDO: Yeah, they may be doing it for that reason; I don’t know why they don’t want anyone to see it.

    COLMES: So the crazier the right goes, the better for people like me?

    TANCREDO: Exactly.

    -It’s the end of the world, as they know it.

    “My general rule of thumb is that we should generally ignore what Wall Street has to say about financial regulation. Investment banks lack the common sense to know what’s good for them.”

    - Health care reform, ahead of schedule.

    “And this week, consumers and families received more good news — the industry will scrap its “rescission” practices, four months before the new federal ban was scheduled to go into effect.”

    - No one brings out the bipartisanship quite like the RNC.

    “Republicans and Democrats, we are united in our efforts to stop the RNC from using Census mailings for political gain and to fundraise for the RNC…”

    - And finally, an interesting study on the right and left political blogosphere from Harvard: abstract and .pdf

  • freeinpa
  • freeinpa

    “A brief history of alarmist—and wrong—Wall Street predictions about the effect of new regulations.”

    A record only matched by government estimates of entitlement programs. Hold on to your watch and wallet.

  • sacredh

    It isn’t hard to see why the White House declined to talk with Crist. Obama can’t support Crist when they have a viable candidate in Meeks. I’m guessing Crist was calling to see what kind of support he could get from Obama. I’m encouraged that Crist called however. It might lead to him caucusing with the democrats if he does win in November. That should give the republicans something to think about.

  • queencersei

    “The most intriguing findings in the Washington Post-ABC News poll published Wednesday are the barest hints of a possible upturn for the Democrats. They suggest that, while the political climate remains tilted strongly in the direction of the Republicans, the next months will be crucial in shaping what ultimately happens in November.”

    or in other words…the election is still months away and anything can happen. Gotcha!

  • sacredh

    I said months ago that it was possible the Teabaggers were peaking too soon. It’s still six months until the election. The Labor Day polls should give us a better indication of the way things will fall. I’m still looking at fairly large losses in the house and senate. Switching control is another ball of wax.

  • 53_3

    A couple things come to mind about this Ambinder snippet:
    .
    One is that, like a lot of other right wing stuff, there is actually more to this than we are given to see, and the other is that in the end, it may not have actually happened.

  • newfreedomblog

    Keep hoping. Keep praying. Keep holding your breath and froth at the mouth, “TEABAGGERS!!!”
    .
    You all make me laugh so much it hurts.

  • 53_3

    Rusty:
    .
    How many times do you need to be reminded that the Tea Party’s founders called themselves that!

  • sacredh

    Isn’t getting kicked out of RedState for being too conservative like getting booted out of San Francisco because you’re too gay?

  • freeinpa

    No as is proved here daily, there are no standards on the left and you cannot be too extreme on the left. Those lines of demarcation for some unknown reason only apply the right.

  • sacredh

    I think being too far left is almost as bad as being too far right. I just don’t think there is a single poster on this site that’s too far left. We’re all basically moderates on the left here. Surely you can’t dispute that?
    .
    freeinpa, I don’t know if you read a thread recently where I said a conservative friend of mine told me not to come around anymore because he thinks that anyone that voted for Obama was a socialist or a commie, but his wife called me at work last night and told me that he had a heart attack while cutting the grass yesterday. It was his third. It was fairly mild and looks pretty good for him. He’s also the friend that lost his wallet with $800 in it at the DC rally on Tax Day.

  • sacredh

    Gotta cut the grass. Later folks.

  • jbaustian

    At the time TARP was passed, I was arguing that the federal government would probably get back at least as much money and probably end up with a profit. That could still happen.
    .
    What I did not foresee was the use of TARP funds for non-bank purposes, like propping up bankrupt auto companies. That money will never be completely repaid.
    .
    The Obama administration has also used TARP money as part of its campaign slush fund, to help reelect vulnerable Democrats. Not to the same extent as the stimulus fund, but still, if TARP money is needed then it will go to a Democrat’s district first.
    .
    I am still not sure whether the TARP program was a good thing. The US government has been the lender-of-last-resort since passage of the Federal Reserve Act, but seeing the Congress and the Treasury also stepping in to prop up bankrupt firms — the risks from moral hazard are even greater.
    .
    And this brings me to my last point. Almost everyone is more cautious now than before the crash…. everyone but Congress and the President. The government is in a very shaky fiscal condition, and the Democrats are doubling-down on risk and then doubling-down again. This is why Americans are getting more and more scared, at a time when signs of economic recovery ought to give a bump to consumer confidence and favorability numbers for the president and congress.

  • Ivy_B

    –I’d say their problem is the economy. Even with recovery, high unemployment is likely to continue and there’s widespread perception the stimulus was flop.

    I think they should put this chart at the end of every tv commercial and put it in an ad in every major newspaper. Obviously we can’t count on reporters to point out the facts that are contrary to the constant GOP buzz.

    http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_04/023170.php

  • Art Pepper

    Bloomberg: “People are developing new drugs in India, rather than here. They’re going to win the next Nobel Prize in China or in Europe, not here. If we want to have a future, we need to have more immigrants here.”

    Science? That’s crazy socialist talk.

  • Paul-no not that one

    “This is why Americans are getting more and more scared, at a time when signs of economic recovery ought to give a bump to consumer confidence”
    .
    Like this?

    .
    “U.S. consumer confidence rose in April, reaching its highest level since September 2008, as views about current and future conditions improved, the Conference Board said Tuesday”
    .
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-rises-in-april-2010-04-27-10900

  • hippooath

    j
    ,

    “The Obama administration has also used TARP money as part of its campaign slush fund, to help reelect vulnerable Democrats. Not to the same extent as the stimulus fund, but still, if TARP money is needed then it will go to a Democrat’s district first.”
    .
    Can you provide a link to this? Isn’t it ironic that GOP en large are and still is against all kind of bailout but go back to their states and brag about the money they got?
    .
    BTW – TARP was legislated when GWB still had power – it’s not to cast blame on him or his administration but it gets silly real quick when liberals are accused of bailing out WS and the banks when it was a concerted effort of wasting our tax money on companies who got us here in the first place.

  • newfreedomblog

    “We’re all basically moderates on the left here. Surely you can’t dispute that?”

    .
    This is a joke, right? Another sacredh joke of the day.
    .
    “Moderate on the left” is somewhere between Communism / Socialism and “Blue Dog Democrat” I suppose. It is someone who is ok with big Government programs, and growing the size of the Federal Government which further restricts individual rights and freedom in favor of a government which is more favorable to the “good of the Community Collective”.
    .
    Now if you want to stop someone and ask them if they are an illegal or asked to show your documentation to prove you are in this country legally, that is against individual freedom. If in order to protect the “Community” against Islamic Terrorists from blowing up more tall buidlings you have to have a National Security Policy which allows for the Government to listen in on cell phone conversations or follow up leads from online activities, this is not acceptable to the Moderate Liberals. As long as they stay out of my bedroom, I am a “moderate liberal”. But, that’s the extent of it. Everything else is up for grabs. Everything else is for the good of the Community at large.
    .
    The “Moderate Liberal” is somewhere in between a Facist and a Socialist. Somewhere between Pro-abortion and Anti-Dealth Penalty. Somewhere between a capitalist system that is heavily regulated by the Government and Socialism or Communism. Somewhere between Climate Change and Global Warming.

  • centfan

    Oh, everybody knows imported socialists are better than domestic ones.
    -
    Besides, teaching science in this country is just another way to knuckle under to the Global Warming, oil depleting, corporations-don’t-know-best, vast left wing conspiracy.
    -
    The left is so powerful and united. They’re so smart. Few can resist them. They control all. Just ask the trolls.

  • kbanginmotown

    GM continues to pay back its loan ahead of schedule:
    http://www.autoweek.com/article/20100421/CARNEWS/100429975 (link)
    .
    Chrysler’s bottom line is improving, despite a slight downturn in sales…
    http://www.industryweek.com/articles/chrysler_sales_take_a_stumble_21476.aspx (link)

  • kbanginmotown

    Be careful out there, sacred….

  • sacredh

    I’m more pro-death penalty than anyone else I know. I’d include almost everyone that posts on this site. Right or left. Moderate liberal. Yep.
    .
    Socialist? Maybe.

  • nflfoghorn

    “And in you can’t make this up…”
    .
    Yes you can.

  • sacredh

    I’m taking a break from the lawn. I just got off the phone to my (ex?) friend’s wife. He’s in a good deal of discomfort. I told her last night I’d like to stop in and see him or at least send a card. I offered to finish cutting their lawn (several acres) and clean and put the tractor away either today or tomorrow. She said it’s ok to send a card and cut the lawn. She also said he wants to pay me (which I refused) twice what it’s worth to make me feel guilty. I think he’ll be fine. Their son’s coming home from college either tomorrow night or Saturday.

  • nflfoghorn

    Most polls show Meek running in the 20s in a three-way…race. That’ll go up I’m sure as soon as people see what he’s all about. To say nothing of getting the BO seal of approval at some point.

  • 53_3

    I’m looking at jbaustians’ response at 1.1 and there are some immediate impressions I get:
    .
    1. TARP, and it’s management, has at least impressed him to the point where he is willing to admit that the US government will make it’s money back. I don’t know of any bailout in the entire history of this country where this can be said. I think it reflects very well on Obama as a leader, and the people he trusted to craft it.
    .
    2. The few billions that went to Cash for Clunkers was clearly one of the best uses for the funds I could think of, as we have most of our auto companies remaining positioned fairly well for the coming recovery. In addition, many millions of less efficient vehicles were removed from service.
    .
    3. I don’t see a problem with diverting funds to bailing out individuals who are in foreclosure. They do it for the big boys, why not the little guy? It wasn’t his or her fault that the recession (at that time, the threat of a depression was very real) caught people upside down when the job and real-estate bubbles burst.
    .
    What to do about these things is indeed a matter of legitimate concern, but with results coming in, I think that it was all handled very well, even given that jbaustian is right about the diversion of funds for other purposes.
    .
    What is even better is the fact is that some of those funds are still in the pipeline, and in my opinion, as far as any stimulus package was concerned, we are getting a lot more bang for the buck than we ever have before…

  • 53_3

    I’m hoping like it seems you are that there is an opportunity for some fence-mending.
    .
    Good luck.

  • jbaustian

    (quote)”This is why Americans are getting more and more scared, at a time when signs of economic recovery ought to give a bump to consumer confidence”
    .
    Like this?
    .
    “U.S. consumer confidence rose in April, reaching its highest level since September 2008, as views about current and future conditions improved, the Conference Board said Tuesday” (end of quote)
    .
    Conditions in September 2008 were terrible. A recovery to that level is nothing remarkable. Quoting from the press release:
    “Those claiming conditions are “good” increased to 9.1 percent from 8.5 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” declined to 40.2 percent from 42.1 percent.”
    .
    9.1% good, 40.2% bad.
    .
    (quote0″The Obama administration has also used TARP money as part of its campaign slush fund, to help reelect vulnerable Democrats. Not to the same extent as the stimulus fund, but still, if TARP money is needed then it will go to a Democrat’s district first.”
    .
    Can you provide a link to this? Isn’t it ironic that GOP en large are and still is against all kind of bailout but go back to their states and brag about the money they got? (end of quote)
    .
    Here’s a link to bank misuse of TARP. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/19/AR2009071901770.html
    As for the Dems using TARP as a slush fund, they voted down Senator Thune’s proposal to use the remaining funds in TARP to pay down the national debt — they want to keep that money available during the upcoming campaign season.
    .
    (quote) BTW – TARP was legislated when GWB still had power – it’s not to cast blame on him or his administration but it gets silly real quick when liberals are accused of bailing out WS and the banks when it was a concerted effort of wasting our tax money on companies who got us here in the first place. (end of quote).
    .
    The TARP legislation got very little support from Republicans in Congress. Hank Paulson was already performing transition work with the new administration when he advised GWB to sign the legislation.
    .
    (quote)GM continues to pay back its loan ahead of schedule:
    http://www.autoweek.com/article/20100421/CARNEWS/100429975 (end of quote)
    .
    GM did not use its own money — it used federal money from another account. I wish I could pay off all my debts that way.
    .
    (quote)I’m looking at jbaustians’ response at 1.1 and there are some immediate impressions I get:
    .
    1. TARP, and it’s management, has at least impressed him to the point where he is willing to admit that the US government will make it’s money back. I don’t know of any bailout in the entire history of this country where this can be said. I think it reflects very well on Obama as a leader, and the people he trusted to craft it. (end of quote)
    .
    You are drawing conclusions from statements I did not make. I said I initially favored TARP because I thought the government would get its money back. To the extent that funds were later used for other than the original purposes, I am no longer sure it will all be repaid.
    .
    I am always happy to find at least partial agreement on tough issues, and I am not slamming you for slightly overstating my position. I am just clarifying what my position is, and noting that the long-term negative effects may out-weight the short-term benefits from TARP.

  • Paul-no not that one

    So you agree that there has been a bump in consumer confidence?
    .
    The way I read your original comment was that people were scared and thus no improvement in consumer confidence.
    .

  • apr2563

    Sorry sacredh but I am totally against the death penalty. Having had a child murdered I can state my feelings were the same before and after her death. After, I had the added reason that I did not want the state killing someone on behalf of my daughter. That was not an honor I chose and made that statement to the court.
    .
    Now, if I had him alone in a room I might have torn his heart out. That would be my moral decision.
    .
    He recieved over 400 years without parole. That was sufficient for me. He is a sociopath that should never be free. In another venue (he is a serial killer) he received death. Which sentence gave me the vaunted “closure”. Neither.

  • apr2563

    And please Newrusty and Freeper do not make my stance on the death penalty an excuse for a diatribe on my Liberalism.
    .
    It is a product of my personal morality.

  • 53_3

    I’m not sure how much agreement there is, but I’m not unduly bothered by the concerns over diverting funds. Legitimate opposition is always a plus, so I’m being more encouraging that agreeing on the issue. The same with the big government arguments and other things.
    .
    I also wasn’t attaching my opinion of the good management of the TARP funds to your opinion, it is just refreshing to hear that even if you are conservative, you are willing to, even if minimally, give credit where credit was due.
    .
    On the subject of consumer confidence, one has to remember that September 2008 was one year prior to the actual beginning of the collapse in August, 2009.
    .
    And at that time, there was a condition approaching panic, with a very strong fear of depression. I think my argument against your take on it is that it is easier to say what should or should not have been done now, but when events were actually occurring, the moves Obama made were commendable. My context for that opinion is based on what the atmosphere and economic conditions were at the time.
    .
    It is easy to second guess. And, given that not doing anything isn’t an experiment we can safely do, I think it is disingenuous to suggest it as an option…

  • diecash1

    kbang — Check this out regarding the GM loan repayment. Looks like some sleight of hand by GM:
    ..
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/04/27/BUS91D55HR.DTL&type=autos

  • sacredh

    apr2563: I respect your view on the death penalty. I was against the death penalty when I was younger but my viewpoint changed on that as it did on many other things. I’m certainly not saying that age or experience was the difference. It’s just something that changed. It was a gradual shift. I also used to be completely against religion to the point where I refused to associate with anyone that believed. That changed too. It just gradually evolved that I started to think that the world would be a better place without some people and executing them accomplished that.
    .
    Like most other people, I can be talked into changing my viewpoint if another makes more sense to me. I’m fairly open-minded…but JESUS CHRIST do I detest the republican party. I think they’re un-American and will result in our downfall.
    .
    I just thought I’d add that last little kicker before I go out and roto-till the garden.

  • apr2563

    sacred I respect your point of view. Other families that had children that were victims of my daughter’s killer certainly had a different opinion. I understood that.
    .
    Before my daughter’s death I opposed the death penalty on moral reasons and the fact that someone innocent might be executed. After all, life and death can be in the hands of a George Bush.
    After her death it was because I found offense in the state using my daughter’s death to commit murder in her name.
    .
    If the PA in the 2nd trial wasn’t running for office, he might not have asked for the death penalty. It was probably a political decision. The PA in the first case wanted more information from the killer. He was responsible for at least 13 deaths. The PA in case 1 used the death penalty to learn more about those deaths and where the bodies were. Once the killer is dead, even if that isn’t for years, we will never learn more.
    .
    This sociopath, honored military man, family man who is now claiming to be saved by Chrisianity, who is completely self absorbed will spend his entire life in prison, in isolation. He claims remorse but had to read the names of his victims from a written list. All his self-worth is now contained in a cell. Killing him will ease that burden from him. I didn’t say I forgave him.
    .

  • apr2563

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/29/march-on-wall-street-unio_n_557400.html
    How much coverage will this large march by labor on Wall Street get by, as the clever Palin calls it, the “lame stream press”.
    .
    Will the traditional media be exclaiming labor’s influence, rush down to interview them, and characterize them as angry, main street Americans? Or will there be a quiet shrug by our 4th estate?
    What do you think?

  • apr2563

    Sorry I didn’t mean to make this thread such a downer and so personal. I just have a very deep revulsion about the death penalty.

  • jbaustian

    Paul wrote: “So you agree that there has been a bump in consumer confidence?
    .
    The way I read your original comment was that people were scared and thus no improvement in consumer confidence. (end of quote)
    .
    When 9% say conditions are good 40% say they are bad, then that says to me that consumers are still very scared about the future.
    .
    Instead of arguing about exactly now bad consumer confidence is, why not address my main point?
    .
    (Quote)Almost everyone is more cautious now than before the crash…. everyone but Congress and the President. The government is in a very shaky fiscal condition, and the Democrats are doubling-down on risk and then doubling-down again. (end of quote)
    .
    If what I say is true, and I think that is self-evident, then there are good reasons for investors, producers, and consumers to be very scared about the future.
    .
    We may be only weeks or months away from the bursting of the next bubble, this time in the bond market. Cheap money now, but for how much longer? A flight to (relative) safety now, as money flees from the Euro to the dollar… but for how much longer?
    .
    It is not enough to say that the US should not be compared to Greece and Portugal, that the US fiscal situation is nowhere near as bad. But any 5th grader who can read a chart can see what’s happening with the trendlines.
    .
    And there is no confidence in Washington. Despite all the bad press that Wall Street is getting, a recent CNBC poll shows that there is far more confidence in Wall Street than in Washington. Maybe the folks on Wall Street really do not know what they’re doing; but more people think they do than think that the president and Congress do.

  • Paul-no not that one

    You made an assertion-
    .
    “This is why Americans are getting more and more scared, at a time when signs of economic recovery ought to give a bump to consumer confidence”
    .
    I replied by providing a current measure showing that it has indeed received a “bump”
    .
    You now say that those numbers are still bad, I don’t disagree.
    .
    In that same quoted paragraph you say there are “signs of economic recovery” but you also say “The government is in a very shaky fiscal condition”
    .
    I suppose you are drawing a distinction between government spending and a private economic recovery.
    .
    Polling numbers in April on Congress versus Wall Street versus the President don’t really interest me so I can’t help you there.
    .
    Polling counts in November.

  • jbaustian

    53_3 wrote: “On the subject of consumer confidence, one has to remember that September 2008 was one year prior to the actual beginning of the collapse in August, 2009.
    .
    And at that time, there was a condition approaching panic, with a very strong fear of depression. I think my argument against your take on it is that it is easier to say what should or should not have been done now, but when events were actually occurring, the moves Obama made were commendable. (end of quote).
    .
    Your timetable is wrong.
    .
    The NBER says the current recession started in December 2007. The first stimulus bill was passed in early 2008 (tax rebates). Bear Stearns was sold for scrap in March 2008 (a mistake, letting it fail led to the panic months later). This was the beginning of the liquidity crisis. Commodity prices surged all through early 2008, as investors fled to hard assets; oil reached $147/barrel.
    .
    On Sept 7 2008, the GSE’s Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac were placed in conservatorship; their shares stopped trading on the NYSE.
    .
    On Sunday Sept 14 2008, BofA agreed to buy Merrill Lynch. On Sept 15 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Coincidentally, polls released that day showed that McCain’s convention bounce had disappeared and Obama had a huge lead in the presidential polls. So in every possible respect, Sept 15 2008 can be pointed to as the Black Monday of the financial crisis. The following day, money market funds — which are invested in T-bills and commercial, and priced at par of $1.00 per share, dropped to $0.97 — called “busting the buck.”

  • sacredh

    It’s fine apr2563. I get personal on here all the time. It’s much cheaper than therapy and I get multiple points of view.
    .
    I shouldn’t be proud of this, but about 25 years ago I had to go for mandatory counseling (I was nuts) and the therapist for our district quit because of me. My boss at the time went to a supervisors meeting and the therapist said he couldn’t go into details, but an employee was making him consider leaving his job. My boss told me that he knew it was me right away.

  • sacredh

    I’m starting to think there might be more going on than I’m aware of. I hope I’m wrong, but his wife wants a bunch of tests done that have nothing to do with his heart.

  • apr2563

    sacredh: You old social justice communist caring about someone not in your immediate family. I hope your friend will be well and you two can connect. There is obvious affection there.

  • 53_3

    jbaustian:
    .
    Technically, you might be right. The tax rebate also technically might be a stimulus.
    .
    These things are beside the point.
    .
    The point is, and is entirely accurate, the economic collapse did not begin until August 2009. Further, my description of the conditions after August 2009 are accurate.
    .
    The point is that the context of the decisions made in managing the TARP money was not the mood that existed in the two years prior to August 2009, the context surrounding those decisions were as I described them.
    .
    I remember the ensuing credit freeze, which was slowly choking off small businesses after Obama took office (and not addressed by the original TARP funds), because I remember the talk shows with businesspeople, testifying to that fact as well as the dire predictions in the news media. Obama may have made mistakes, but overall, he did the right thing.
    .
    An important point again is that it is disingenuous to claim that doing nothing would have been better. The first reason is that such an experiment can never be done safely to determine whether it is true, and the second is that it is much easier to examine his decisions outside the context of the atmosphere that was extant in late 2009, and not 2007, or 2008!

  • 53_3

    I echo apr’s sediments, er sentiments sacred.
    .
    Maybe your friend will come to his senses…

  • 53_3

    As for your comment about the GOP above, I don’t really detest them as much as value them for their nutritional value to predators such as crocs and gators.

  • jbaustian

    I’m sorry, 53, but I do not understand why your chronology is off by a year and you refuse to recognize it. The economic collapse began, in slow motion, in the summer of 2007; the all-time high for the DJIA was in October 2007, at over 14000. The downdraft accelerated in early 2008 and the Congress passed the first stimulus bill.
    .
    The first crisis was in March 2008, the second in September 2008. The markets declined in an orderly fashion until September 2008; the DJIA was nearly 12000 at the beginning of the month.
    .
    By mid-October 2008, the Dow dipped below 8000 on a couple days, then leveled off in the 8000-9000 range until after the inauguratio, then dipped again until bottoming in early March 2009 at around 6500.
    .
    The markets have been climbing steadily since March 2009, and the real economy hit bottom and stopped getting worse several months later.
    .
    You keep saying “the economic collapse did not begin until August 2009″, when in fact the darkest period was in Sept-Oct 2008. By August 2009, the DJIA had rallied 3000 points from its March low.

  • 53_3

    Like I said, Jbaustian, technically you are right, but I think you can ask anyone else, the mood of the country did not appreciably change from recession to fear of full blown depression until the financial institutions began to fail.
    .
    I’m not having a problem with what you were saying, but the context in which Obama made his decisions did not exist prior to August, 2009, and that context was near panic.
    .
    It might be noted that at that time, the context that I am referring to was the driving force behind GWB’s decision to finally get off the dime and pass TARP when he did.

  • 53_3

    Jbaustian:
    .
    You will have to forgive me, I pulled a MAJOR stupid!
    .
    Call it a brain fart if you will, but somehow, I do indeed have events one year off!
    .
    You can take solace in the fact that I have to admit that this is one of the worst faux pas I have ever committed, and it took me 24 hours minimum to figure it out.
    .
    Change my dates from 2009 to 2008. My argument about the context of Obama’s decision is still extant, however.
    .
    At this point I apologize for dragging you into a roundy-round about it…

  • 53_3

    Jbaustian:
    .
    See my comment at 1.16. Apologies!

  • jbaustian

    53, there is no need to apologize. I was sure about my facts, but I still double-checked each event just to make sure which happened when — so my time was well-spent.
    .
    I did not really need to confirm the events of early September 2008 — from the quick bounce McCain got from the GOP convention, to the Lehman bankruptcy and Merrill-Lynch emergency buyout. the collapse in confidence in the commercial paper market and “breaking the buck” in the money-market funds. If I just say “September 15th”, that is close enough to the epicenter
    .
    From that point on, there was nothing McCain could do to pull ahead — it was all up to Obama to make a blunder, and he was careful not to say anything of consequence. Everyone knew he would be president, so that information was incorporated in the investment decisions.
    .
    I remember how McCain was blundering around that week, “suspending” his campaign so he could go to Washington and help fix the problems. To me that only confirmed that he didn’t know any more than Obama what needed to be done. Maybe that hurt investor confidence even more, knowing that we were in a situation which neither candidate could do a thing about. That no matter who was elected, the next administration had no plan for recovery… or rather, no plan that would actually work. That has turned out to be true.
    .
    The rest of 2010 looks to be okay, with a recovery slower than normal but at least things will not get worse. 2011 looks to be trouble — the problems we’ll be facing then cannot be addressed with more government stimulus bills. So Obama will be more clueless than normal — his tax, energy, environmental, and financial reform policies will all combine with Federal Reserve credit tightening to make a “double-dip” almost inevitable.

  • 53_3

    Well, we’ll just have to agree to disagree on how Obama is doing.

  • apr2563

    sacredh: You can always make me laugh.

  • sacredh

    That was a true story apr2563. I was always in trouble with the law back then. I had three court dates in the same month in three different states (just fun stuff). A really bad head-on car wreck (weather related), then there was some nasty allegation about me having a prostitute at work (they couldn’t prove it) so they decided some professional counseling was in order. I fell asleep during one session and fell out the chair. He asked me if I was on drugs and I told him that he just bored the sh!t out of me.

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