Talk to the Taliban

Ahmed Rashid, perhaps the best informed journalist in the world when it comes to Afghanistan and Pakistan, confirms my belief that Hamid Karzai’s recent maneuverings are part of a reconciliation strategy with the Taliban:

According to U.S. and Afghan officials, Karzai’s first question when he arrives will be whether Washington supports his efforts at reconciliation with the senior Taliban leadership. In January, theUnited States and NATO agreed to reintegration — bringing in Taliban foot soldiers and low-level commanders — but Washington balked at full reconciliation, saying it wants to see the Taliban weakened militarily over the next six to 12 months before considering talks with its leaders.

Rashid lays out the full complexity of the situation, filling in some details unknown to me–like the fact that Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the number 2 Taliban leader captured by the Pakistanis in Karachi a few months ago, was one of Karzai’s interlocutors in reconciliation talks. (It seems clear that Pakistan would only favor reconciliation on its terms…and its terms are ridiculous: the closing of two Indian consulates in Afghanistan.)

Still, this could be a pregnant moment for a settlement–with the threat of the U.S. military’s summer offensive in Kandahar looming. And there is a need now for a master U.S. negotiator to make this deal. Richard Holbrooke would be the obvious candidate, but he’s had a rocky road with Karzai. In any case, Rashid is right: The President needs to make a decision about this, and fast.

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nflfoghorn

How can you verify if they’ve drawn down their weapons? The senior Tali leaders are SO 15th Century they prolly think plumbing is an affront to Allah.
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BTW I noticed JK had said based on blog posts not many people care about important issues vs. the latest on Miss Prissy. I venture to say that sometimes it’s all about timing. If a post hits one after another after another people will naturally bypass the earlier one. Just a thought
nflfoghorn

…gramatically:
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“If posts hit consecutively in rapid-fire fashion, people will naturally bypass the earlier ones.”
jbaustian

Because Obama has set a timetable for withdrawal, the US has very little leverage.
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The situation may be phrased thusly: Do what we want right now… or wait 18 months and then do whatever you like because you’ll be on your own.
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Since it’s unlikely that the Taliban will disappear entirely in the next 18 months, then Karzai may actually have an incentive to avoid conflict with the Taliban between now and then. He might not want to piss them off.
Joe Klein

J–I think people are taking this “deadline” business a bit too literally. I suspect that withdrawal is going to be a long and slow process. It may start in July 2011 with a bit of ceremonial fluff–the Italians leave Herat or the Germans leave Mazar. But there’s no indication, yet, that the U.S. will quit the main action against the Taliban in Pashtun regions. (The big decisions on that score will be made soon–as Rashid suggests–and then again in December, when the Obama Administration holds its next strategy review.)
swissArmyBrainBETA

thanks for all this. although it seems to me like reconciliation is the least horrible option right now, it’s seriously tragic. I really wonder how much better off that miserable country will be once we’re done pouring so much effort and resources into it.
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the Taliban seem 100% determined when the more reasonable people don’t care quite enough to do what it takes. it’s good to give them a chance though, and a taste of a few of the freedoms enjoyed elsewhere.
Ike Jakson

Joe

Perhaps you should arrange for Rashid and Karzai to meet the President when he next goes for a walk in the Blue Ridge and they can make friends.
teldawg

Reintegration of the Taliban? What a surprisingly novel
idea that I can’t believe has not been fully tried before.
Imagine how smooth things would have went in Germany had we made use of the organizational skills of the Gestapo. Or using the Japan’s Kempeita to further enhance relations with their Asian neighbors. Say what you want about those salt of the earth Talib’s you just can’t fault their dedication to the ideals, goals and laser beam attention to many of the same platitudes of those German and Japanese entities. Can’t think of a better example although I expect many of your readers will bring up that truly worthy Pol Pot gang. Whatever the case Karzai and the Taliban deserve each other.