Recovery Lag Time, Political Time Bomb

The economy is getting better. This is a fact. Just 25 percent of the American people believe that the economy is getting better. This is also a fact. Here’s where it gets complicated: These two facts are not contradictory. One can have a recovering economy that fails, at least initially, to bring meaningful improvement to the lives of most Americans.

Meghan Barr of the Associated Press gets to the heart of the matter today in a story you should read, if only because this dynamic is likely to explain the poll results in this fall’s midterm elections. Barr begins her story this way:

TWINSBURG, Ohio – The clerk at the candy shop does not want to cry. She is determinedly cheerful, a professional smiler, dressed head to toe in bright turquoise. But standing next to a display of plastic-wrapped candles and teddy bears, her face crumples at the most basic of questions: Are you doing OK?

“I’m sorry,” she says, wiping her eyes with a shirt sleeve, her voice a shaky whisper. “Because at the end of the month, there’s nothing left. I don’t know what to say. It’s almost getting to the point where I don’t know what we’re going to do anymore.”

For four years now, Julie Bittner has rung up customers in this little store on the charming grassy square at the heart of Twinsburg, Ohio. And from her view by the front window, she has watched the fortunes of a ransacked autoworkers’ mecca slowly drain away. Streets once teeming with people are now deserted. Some days, she says, not a soul comes through the door.

She’s seen the headlines. The recession is ending! Unemployment is stabilizing! From Wall Street to Washington, the message comes: America, the worst is over. Let the spending begin. But in places like Twinsburg — where for so many the misery goes on, unabated — people aren’t buying the rhetoric. If brighter days are ahead, they say, they’re still awaiting the dawn.

Read the whole story here.

Related Topics: recession, Uncategorized
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  • themaverickformerlyknownasbasilbrush

    Perhaps the distinction should be between an elite economy (which is recovering very nicely, but don’t ask too many questions about quite how this has come to pass, thank you) and a mainstream economy, where working means actually doing something other than juggling figures. The latter, fairly clearly, is not recovering in any meaningful way to the non-elite people caught up in it. I suggest that the two are sadly linked, and that the real failure of TARP was its refusal to impose real mortgage and loan relief in return for bailing out the elites who ran and wrecked the financial sector. If TARP had imposed a compulsory buy out of mortgages below a certain figure, as well as student loans, and had made it clear that those mortgages and loans were cancelled, without loss of homes and with full cancellation of debts, then there would have been yowling from the GOP and glibertarian deadenders, but a whole lot more consumer confidence and faith in the future – leading to more spending, reduced unemployment, and a real recovery where it matters. Instead, people are staggering on under these burdens, with excessive interest rates, and no reason to spend more than they have to any time soon.

  • deconstructiva

    Michael, it’s not complicated about the faux-contradiction. It’s the lagging job market and still-unstable housing market / foreclosures. Read Barbara Kiviat’s CC post today (better yet, co-write a story with her). One mortgage market (subprime) is improving but the others are not (esp. jumbo).

  • michaelfury
  • deconstructiva

    Now THAT’S pure blogwhoring. Screw the upfront text, who reads it? (or the blog)

  • jnb987

    Things I don’t know because I never click on blogwhore links: is Michael Fury a full name, or is Michael just unleashing fury? Or is Micha growing elves in a cute, fuzzy litte “elfury.”

    All these answers and more, at my own blog:

    http://shamelesspromotion.blogspot.wordpress.cnn.com.net.org/creedthoughts.gov

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    It’s a non-contradiction.
    .
    Recession: bleeding out job.
    .
    End of recession: few more jobs will be lost.
    .
    Recovery: old jobs replaced with new ones.
    .
    We are between the recession and the recovery. Employed will not soon loose their jobs, but, unemployed won’t find work for a little while.
    .
    First there is a fire burning up your house.
    .
    Next, firemen put out the fire.
    .
    You are not happy or even partially happy until the construction is done on rebuilding the part of your house burned.

  • Mr. Nice Guy

    I’m not sorry to say this, Julie Bittner, but boo-flipping-hoo. If you can see the train coming down the tracks, and refuse to move, I’m not going to cry for either you or Argentina.
    .
    To make a living, I drive 350 miles to NYC on either Sunday nights or Monday mornings; spend all week away from my family to earn my paycheck; and drive those 350 miles back home on Friday evening for two days with my wife and son. That’s what I have to do to put money in the bank, pay my bills, save for my retirement, etc. Do I enjoy it? I like what I do, but the work-life balance isn’t very balanced, right now. It still beats unemployment.
    .
    You have choices; life’s all about choices. In times like these – not that it’s ever really been any different in any age of Man – you go where the work is. If you manage that, don’t expect my sympathy.

  • Mr. Nice Guy

    “can’t manage that” – even _with_ preview…

  • apr2563

    Mr. Nice Guy: So you are assuming that others aren’t working as hard as you. You, saintly man, have never experienced difficulties that required you to get help. So why have empathy for others?
    .
    Have you considered all the circumstances that might affect other people’s choices different than yours.
    .
    Our current situation has been caused by years of outsourcing, tax breaks for corporations that locate abroad, and flat income increases for workers for at least 10 years. The solution is always framed as the need to educate workers. To do what?
    .
    Anyway, Saint Mr. Nice Guy keep being smug and I hope you never find yourself in a hopeless situation.

  • shepherdwong

    “Meghan Barr of the Associated Press gets to the heart of the matter today in a story…”
    .
    You already got to the heart of the matter. Your industry has failed to convey the facts to the public. That’s the heart of the matter. Ignorant/misinformed public = media FAIL.

  • Friar Tuck

    Mr. Nice Guy, your comment is a foul and awesome display of self-pity.

  • Mr. Nice Guy

    While you think you’re being clever, what you didn’t know is that I’m also deaf. Lost my hearing three days before I was to join the military. I know what it’s like to have “difficulties,” and I’ll tell you that it’s only “hopeless” when you give up.
    .
    Ever had a college adviser tell you, flat out, “You won’t succeed here because you can’t hear”? Ever walked into a job interview for which you’re perfectly qualified, to be denied because you can’t hear? “Interview after interview,” I should say. Ever had a child that couldn’t stop crying because he was hungry, but you had nothing to give him? Been there, done it. I’m not afraid of Hell; I’ve already been through it.
    .
    I didn’t ask to lose my hearing and a major part of my life, or wind up so poor. But I didn’t sit around whining, or say, “Woe is me!” I fought back and dug myself out. Pardon me if I refuse to give sympathy to someone who has alternatives, but chooses to sit and whine, instead.

  • http://patricksartor.wordpress.com patricksartor

    “I walked forty-seven miles of barbed wire, I got a cobra snake for a necktie
    A brand new house on the road side, and it’s a-made out of rattlesnake hide
    Got a band new chimney put on top, and it’s a-made out of human skull
    Come on take a little walk with me baby, and tell me who do you love?
    Who do you love?
    Who do you love?”
    .
    MrNiceGuy’s Song.
    .
    Cool song, that’s not an insult.

  • http://jcapan.wordpress.com jcapan

    Mr. Nice Guy, you have quite a story, and if it weren’t for your bald lack of empathy for the story’s subject, we’d probably have a lot more respect for your life of burden. Essentially, you’re offering us a GOP bootstrap talking pt. You overcame your many hurdles and anyone who has not been as successful is worthy neither of your sympathy or respect.
    .
    Her lament is unworthy but somehow yours is? I mean, can you not imagine a society where want exceeds available prosperity? That there simply isn’t enough to go around, what with the richest 1% holding in excess of 90% of the nation’s wealth in our ostensibly egalitarian/classless nation. Our lords are thrilled to observe such rhetoric–the downtrodden blaming/judging one another for their ever narrowing slivers of pie while the oligarchs cruise along in their cozy carriages.

  • Mr. Nice Guy

    None taken – love that song.

  • Mr. Nice Guy

    Please – spare me this “downtrodden” crap. What you’re saying is that none of us can survive _unless_ we’re someone else’s slave.
    .
    While looking for my first “real” job after college, I needed cash. Since employers weren’t knocking themselves over to hire me, I started my own business. It didn’t make me wealthy, but it was _something_ to tide me over until I got that first job. When an employer cut staff in 2000 and I found myself wanting work, I started my own business again. It kept me afloat for five years before I went back to the corporate teat; it’s easier to collect a paycheck than accounts payable.
    .
    Look at Sergey Brin and Larry Page. Look at Bill Gates. Or Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard. Or the guys that started SUN, or Intel. I focus on technology because that’s what I’m most familiar with, but there are any number of other people who started out with little to nothing and went on to create successful businesses.
    .
    There’s nothing stopping almost* anyone from starting their own enterprise and earning their keep on their own. Nothing, that is, except their own drive.
    .
    I generally like this crowd, and I’m sorry if that doesn’t play into the “corporatists bad!” meme – and I’ll agree that some of those pigs should be slaughtered – but it’s the truth. Trust me: I’m nothing special. If I can do what it takes to survive, and thrive, so can anyone else.
    .
    As far as Ms. Bittner, I’d respect her a lot more if, instead of wallowing in her misery, she bucked up, determined what she needed to do, and got to it. Like Clint Eastwood said in “Heartbreak Ridge”: Improvise, adapt, overcome.
    .
    * A sister of mine has Downs. Obviously, she’s limited in what she can do. For her, and others like her, I have immense sympathy.

  • http://jcapan.wordpress.com jcapan

    “I generally like this crowd, and I’m sorry if that doesn’t play into the ‘corporatists bad!’ meme”
    .
    No, I’d say blaming the victims of 30 years of insane fiscal policy, which resulted in flatlined real wages(except for the elites) … I’d say what your philosophy by autobiograhpy doesn’t play into is liberalism. Call yourself anything you like, but you might want to reassess some of your core, contradictory indicators.

  • Mr. Nice Guy

    Who said I was a “liberal”? I rather agree with T. Jefferson:
    .
    You say that I have been dished up to you as an Anti-Federalist, and ask me if it be just. My opinion was never worthy enough of notice to merit citing; but, since you ask it, I will tell it to you. I am not a Federalist, because I never submitted the whole system of my opinions to the creed of any party of men whatever, in religion, in philosophy, in politics, or in anything else, where I was capable of thinking for myself. Such an addiction is the last degradation of a free and moral agent. If I could not go to heaven but with a party, I would not go there at all. Therefore, I am not of the party of Federalists.
    .
    http://www.britannica.com/presidents/article-9116912
    .
    It so happens that many of my beliefs overlap those of a number of people on this site, but that’s more by chance than by political affiliation.
    .
    I also think breathing is kind of cool – but so do those dam.ed Repugs. Can’t do much about that one…

  • theotherjimmyolson

    Mr. nice guy, your not seriously suggesting that everyone in America can do what Bill Gates did, are you? That everyone has the same interests, the same drive, the same intellect, the same millionaire father ? Is it possible you have not thought this through?

  • shepherdwong

    “A sister of mine has Downs. Obviously, she’s limited in what she can do. For her, and others like her, I have immense sympathy.”
    .
    Each of us is limited in what we can do, to his own nature and circumstance. Obviously. To whom you reserve your empathy is your own concern. Funny handle.

  • mycophile

    Mr. Nice Guy~~
    .
    I have found this exchange between you and others quite worthy. Thanks for the insights into your thoughts.
    .
    Some of them I share, some of them I don’t, some of them I hold somewhat oppositely.
    .
    I particularly liked your treatment @ 5.5 of never submitting the whole system of ones opinions to the creed of any party of men whatever. I have proudly resembled that remark for as long as I can remember ( I am 57), although it was not pride that has made me refrain — it is integrity in the valuing of that ellusive thing called truth.
    .
    the otherjimmyolson beat me to it, but I would say that although there is nothing stopping almost anyone from starting their own enterprise and earning their keep on their own, there are plenty of things preventing everyone from doing so. I do not mean to play semantical games, I mean to differentiate by meanings.
    .
    For one thing, although I don’t think you meant to surmise this, but, just in case, I want to opine that a world of Bill Gateses would not be possible. Because Bill Gateses would not buy computers from any other Bill Gateses.
    .
    For another thing, our socio-economic system would collapse if it were not for the huge ‘economies of scale’ that provide its infrastructure, and those scales are not provided by a web of entrepreneurs — they are provided by a sea of hourly workers for companies whose capital is provided by Wall Street and the Fed. I wouldn’t mind seeing such a collapse, but a whole lot of folks would think life was over if they had to live a life supported only by regional economies.
    .
    (or, more specifically, I would like to see the aftermath once the widespread pain and suffering from such a collapse was over. And from what I heard yesterday, I might get a chance to see a semblance of it if I keep my eye on Detroit.)
    .
    As well, our culture is deliberately constructed to be, and to self-reinforce, our populace to be dependent on mega-corporations. As an illustration, consider this:
    .
    The Council on Economic Development (CED) — one of the first private advisory groups to government — was formed by presidents of such giants as Bank of America, Campbell’s Soup, Pillsbury, HJ Heinz, Del Monte and Oscar Meyer. Over the years, from 1945 until 1974, CED vice-chairmen also were board members for Standard Oil, AT&T, Ford Motor, and the like. They issued regular policy statements.
    .
    Dedicated to elimination of the family farm.
    .
    A 1962 statement on its “Adaptive Program for Agriculture” recommended lowering farm prices below farmers’ costs of production to force one-third of all farmers out of rural areas: “A program to induce excess resources (primarily people) to move rapidly out of agriculture,” to be replaced by mechanized farming, and to lower wages in the urban labor forces, leading to cheaper “raw materials” for food processors. The CED advised everyone to “invest in projects that break up village life by drawing people to centers of employment away from villages because, by preventing impersonal relations, village life is a major source of impediment to change.”
    .
    Read that carefully.
    .
    Break the backbone of America to get everyone into the cities to be cogs in a more impersonal society of industrial food production and lifestyles, dependent for food from a system of machines.
    .
    They did a good job. And ever since our society became impersonal, it has self-reinforced continuing to be so. There is a huge inertia.
    .
    So, while, as you wrote, it is not true that none of us can survive unless we’re someone else’s slave, I say it is also true that most people could not survive unless they were someone else’s slave They don’t know how and they have been taught by our culture that there is no other way to live than to be a part of the machine.
    .
    I have worked for someone else maybe 4 years of my working life. The rest has been as self-employed, and 14 years livng on the land in a life of voluntary simplicity, with very little income-generating work. That 14 years I lived like a king. Business, I am here to report, is not a healthy way to live. I am also saying that I am not armchair philosophizing here. I have many responsible and otherwise capable friends who have tried to work for themselves, and miserably failed. A few have succeeeded. It is quite clear to me that it takes more than one’s own drive to succeed in this economic society without working for somebody else. I just happened to have enough of what it takes.
    .
    I was the youngset Journeyman Retail Clerk in Southern California when I was 16, I saw how many people with zero drive got by — by having a union job. (No, patricksartor, I am not knocking the concept of unions. In fact, the kinds of ills that unions arose in response to and effectively addressed are rampant again today and again in need of address, but unions went awry somewhere along their way so I hope “liberals” like you will design a better way this time, please.)
    .
    That’s enough. I have an important crusade going on that I really ought to put all the time I have been spending in Swampland into, instead. I have enjoyed (as I gather you have yours, Mr. Nice Guy) my time here, and I shall return. Tomorrow I will look for any responses to my recent posts, and then unsubscribe so that I don’t get tempted further, though.

  • apr2563

    Mr. Nice Guy: Sorry for your hearing loss. My father had extreme hearing loss. During the depression he lost his farm to the dust bowl. A proud man, he needed the help of the WPA to get work. Thank goodness for the helping hand he got.
    .
    You remind me of the old codger who tells his grandkid that he walked 20 miles to school each day in 6 feet of snow. Kids now adays are lazy. Your generation was superior.
    .
    Well, Saint Mr. Nice Guy, you have a failing or two you would not be able to acknowlege.

  • apr2563

    Mr. Nice Guy: Direct me to anyone here who said we can’t survive without being someone’s slave. I missed it.

  • Mr. Nice Guy

    Oh I have _plenty_ of empathy. i just choose to reserve it for those who deserve it.
    .
    Look at Anthony Robles, or Kyle Maynard. They kick butt in _spite_ of their handicaps. Those guys – dam.ed fine wrestlers, and outstanding people – don’t whine and say, “Pity me, for I’m missing a limb.”
    .
    Before they ask for help – if they ever ask for help – they try to help themselves, first. They have plenty of reason to complain and ask for our empathy, or sympathy, but they don’t. They don’t want it; they don’t need it; and they’d be hard-pressed to accept it.
    .
    Exactly the opposite – from what we’ve seen – of this woman. I can’t bring myself to help someone who’s fallen down and waits for someone else to help them. Life’s rough, and sometimes it knocks you down. Get off your butt and get moving again.

  • apr2563

    Saint Mr. Nice Guy: You seem to take the story of this woman so personally. Are you afraid she may get some assistance that you were denied? You believe in tough love? You know nothing about her personal circumstances but can judge her?

  • Mr. Nice Guy

    @apr: I’m not going to parse grammar for you; you’re smart enough to do that, yourself.
    .
    And I’ve no problem acknowledging my failings – that’s the first step to overcoming them. However, I wouldn’t let them stop me. That’s where we differ, I guess.

  • http://jcapan.wordpress.com jcapan

    Mr NG, thanks for the clarification. I’ll keep that in mind the next time I see you engaging New Freedom Lady etc. B/C in many ways you see the world through the same prism.

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