Campaign Diaries has taken a long, hard look at the House and published a rundown of members who are potential swing votes on health care. (The Democrats’ current strategy appears to have the House pass the Senate bill and then have both chambers pass a package of changes to that underlying legislation via simple majority.) Daniel Nichanian, of Campaign Diaries, has done his homework. He includes details that could indicate where these members might come down for a second health care vote. Of Kentucky’s Rep. Ben Chandler, for example, Nichanian writes:
The filing deadline has passed in Kentucky, and while the race could heat up Chandler doesn’t have to worry about facing a top-tier Republican. Will this encourage him to vote “yes”? He did support cap-and-trade. He’s a Blue Dog.
(h/t Jonathan Cohn)
Health care will probably come down to Nancy Pelosi. I’m with Karen – the Speaker hasn’t given us much reason to doubt her ability to gather votes, but we won’t know until the very last minute how this will turn out.
As for what’s next. It’s Wednesday – that’s when President Obama will reportedly give a speech providing guidance for how exactly Democrats should move forward. Expect details of that guidance to start trickling out tomorrow.