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It’s Been A Year: Time For Reelect

By Michael Scherer | @michaelscherer | February 24, 2010 | +

Sad/Wonderful/Inevitable truth: It is happening again.

Mike Allen gets to the bottom of some rumors that have been floating around in recent days, tid bits from ongoing discussions that are not yet finalized: Barack Obama is preparing to relaunch his campaign machine in early 2011, when Republicans like Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty are likely to come out swinging. (My own line has Sarah Palin as more of a long shot than many think–if only I could buy a credit default swap–now that she has been wrapped up in Roger Ailes web. The dark horse: John Thune, whose talents and limits a few Obamaites, including Dan Pfeiffer, know well. With Mike Huckabee talking healthy eats with the first lady, Rick Santorum, meanwhile, is studying the Sam Brownback playbook in Iowa, as Luke Skywalker to Emperor Romney, which could make for another exciting straw poll.)

The Obama White House has already shifted its attention to the midterms, but that means the reelect, which is still not a drop dead certainty, is not far behind. Jim Messina, who has proven himself an unflappable organization man in the White House, is being floated as campaign manager–a position he is now pressured to seek with his name in print. David Plouffe plays a bigger role. Anita Dunn remains in orbit. David Axelrod can finally give up the Beltway ghost and return to his windy city family, telecommuting the vision.

Allen lays out the details, which track, with all the requisite anonymous sourcing here.

But before we all start handicapping the horses, let us not lose focus on the fact that the election that matters now is months, not years away. Republicans have not yet convinced the handicappers, but it is still possible for them to pick up the house or senate, or both. And the governors races don’t look so hot for Democrats either.

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  • allthingsinaname

    Some more of the media trying to drive the narrative.
    .
    Can we take the time to achieve something, or do we have to argue who is going to be in power 3 years from now, because you have a tingling running up your leg?

  • queencersei

    I agree about Sarah Palin. Despite all the press she is a long shot.
    I’m glad you mention John Thune. Not many have heard about him, but he seems like a real contender. The only sticky point is his being from South Dakota. It doesn’t exactly rake in the electoral votes. But still, he is someone to watch. Mike Pence could be another possibility, as is Mitch Daniels. It is an interesting field.

  • fhmadvocat

    It’s too early to tell, but I think the Republicans will run a governor or someone who is currently not in office. Running from Congress is very difficult at best and when you think about it, in the last half century, we have elected only two members of Congress, both from the Senate and in the case of the last election, it was a given, because both of the major nominees were senators.

    Seriously, can you tell me the last time a member of Congress beat an incumbent president? Reagan and Clinton were governors. Dole couldn’t beat Clinton and Kerry couldn’t beat Bush, despite the fact that both of them were originally elected with less than 50% of the vote the first time.

    If the Republicans want to guarantee Obama’s re-election, chose a member of Congress as their nominee.

  • acameronw

    I am convinced that Sarah Palin will not run in 2012, and that her true calling is celebrity, not power. She’ll flirt with the possibility as long as possible and than announce that looking after her family has to take precedence over running for office. It’s a credible reason and will only endear to a lot of her supporters. She’s restricted herself to friendly forums up now, but Romney, Pawlenty and the rest will not take it easy on her in a primary debate and she knows it. By the way, didn’t Pawlenty hand Democrats a perfectly lovely sound bite when said to CPAC “The first rule of the Constitution is that God’s in charge.”? Ten bucks to the first person who finds that line in the Constitution for me.

  • hotbbq

    If the Republicans want to guarantee Obama’s re-election, chose a member of Congress as their nominee.

    I don’t see how any Republican could win against Obama. If the economy picks up even modestly the Republicans lose their only opening. They aren’t going to win in a battle of ideas, or character, or sense of bipartisanship. Despite all the noise from the tea party/communist/low-information crowd, I think most reasonable people would say this administration is doing better across the board than the last. Of course perhaps I am simply woefully naive and the inmates will finally take over the asylum.

  • queencersei

    “but Romney, Pawlenty and the rest will not take it easy on her in a primary debate and she knows it.”

    Totally agree. This can not be stated enough. The right loves to blast the evil lame stream media and Dems for being so hard on poor Sarah. But come primary season, should she run, it will be her fellow Republicans who shred her. Count on it.

  • pafro

    The only story you can find to discuss John Thune’s “talents” is six years old? And it is about who can raise more money from special interests between himself and corporate Democrat Tom Daschle.
    I don’t know what is more pathetic: Republicans who base their presidential aspirations on finding dim-witted, tall, and supposedly good looking empty-suit candidates, or the reporters that enable them in doing so?

  • Ivy_B

    I don’t read Mike Allen and I’m not going to read any horserace posts about the next Presidential election until much closer to the time. The endless primary season last time caused a bit of brain dead. Way too early to start now. I don’t really care what campaign staff anyone has hired – although if someone hires Mark Penn I might be interested — could count that candidate out early.

  • christophermgomez

    These stories pop up earlier and earlier each cycle, and are probably one of the big reasons governing has become so difficult.

    Please, someone post a 2020 election story so they can claim to be the first. I’m sure that claim for 2016 is already taken.

  • sacredh

    It looks like I’m almost alone on this, but I think this is fun stuff. At the most, next year at this time we’ll see more and more stories every week about the 2012 race and candidates falling all over themselves trying to position themselves as the only “real” challenger..

  • apr2563

    MS, why would you depend on Politico for news. It’s whole purpose is to get the scoop, accurate or not. Sourcing is almost always a secret. Please take the time to find out how often they are wrong.
    Also, the conjecture by the press in general is wrong. Remember how Hillary was supposed to be locked into the Dem. nomination.
    Actually, how often are all of the pundits correct?
    But, since you and other “journalists” like the contoversy more than reporting on real issues and facts, this is a big story to you.

  • the committee

    Republicans will, in fact be fielding a candidate, then? BREAKING.

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