The Red Coats Are Coming

Trouble for Democrats seems to be brewing in Massachusetts where a special election to fill Teddy Kennedy’s Senate seat is due to be held a week from Tuesday — on January 19. It’s hard to imagine a Republican winning in solidly blue Massachusetts but GOP State Senator Scott Brown has been steadily gaining on the Democratic candidate, Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, and in a Public Policy Poll out today overtook her 48%-47%.

Dems face a number of challenges: Republicans by a margin of 66% to 48% are much more enthusiastic about turning out. Brown has “eye popping” numbers with Independent voters, leading Coakley 63%-31%. And on health care, which has been center stage in the race, 47% of voters oppose the bill(s) currently before Congress with 41% supporting reform.

If Brown wins, Democrats can pretty much kiss health care reform goodbye, or must go begging to see what the ladies from Maine might want. The Senate isn’t even scheduled to come back into session until January 20th and passing a conference report between now and then is pretty much impossible. Aside from the momentum-killing loss of the 60th vote — the filibuster-proof margin, a Brown win, or even an extremely close Coakley win, will scare the bejesus out of every Democratic incumbent. If Teddy’s seat isn’t safe, no seat is.

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Related Topics: martha coakley, scott brown, Senate seat, special election, Teddy Kennedy, 2012 Election, Congress, Democratic Party, Health Care, Republican Party, Senate
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  • http://ktheintz.wordpress.com/ kth

    I don’t really see this happening, but if the alarmism helps Coakley GOTV that’s great.

  • jarais

    The Senate isn’t even scheduled to come back into session until January 20th and passing a conference report between now and then is pretty much impossible.

    Interesting article from the Herald suggests that in the event of a Republican victory (doubt it, Dems still outnumber Republicans 3 to 1 here), Scott Brown swearing in would be delayed until health care reform passes.
    http://www.bostonherald.com/business/healthcare/view.bg?articleid=1224249

  • Cliff

    So if the Republicans gain another seat in Congress, they’ll be able to obstruct all Democratic efforts, bogging our government down in endless, futile in-fighting in a time of great crisis.
    .
    This stands in stark contrast to the current Congress, where the GOP obstructs all Democratic efforts, bogging our government down in endless, futile in-fighting in a time of great crisis.

  • apr2563

    Take a deep breath. Anything is possible. But please read 538 first. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

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    [...] Republican Takes the Lead in Special Election for Teddy Kennedy’s Senate Seat – Swamplan… [...]

  • spob

    I don’t see how any person, Democrat, Republican or Independent could possibly vote for scum like Coakley. Her recommendation that Gerard Amirault spend more time in jail (for a crime that not only did he not do, but that never happened) should appall anyone who believes in freedom. I’m sure, of course, that many libs in here don’t care. Coakley shouldn’t be able to show her face in polite company.

  • constantweader

    You might be right. The Boston Globe is reporting Coakley with “a solid 15-point lead.” On health care, I read the Dems would try to manipulate the date of Brown’s swearing-in to after the health bill passes, if it comes to that. Of course they’d have to kiss every other Democratic measure goodbye.

    The Constant Weader at http://www.RealityChex.com

  • rustyreturns

    I am really enjoying the Democrats who are so simply happy that because there is a 3 to 1 advantage in Mass, and they believe that somehow this is going to push Coakley into the lead again.
    .
    Problem is, Americans, even Americans in Massachusetts are sick and tired of the political crap that Ted Kennedy himself was part of. They want real change. Not some bogus claim for change that Obama spread like cow manure in 2008 – 2009.
    .
    Real change is coming, and this race just might be the “shot heard ’round the world”. I won’t hold my breath for Brown, but I do hope he takes this race, just like New Jersey and Virginia also went.
    .
    Even sites like fivethirtyeight made claims just in December that Dodd was “surging ahead in the polls”, only to see Dodd declare defeat before the race even started and knew to get the hell out of Dodge.

  • rustyreturns

    “We lead enthusiasm 66% to 48%, we lead the independent vote 63%-31%* with Scott Brown claiming a 70/16 favorability rating, and with those “who have a negative take on both parties[read that Tea Party participants], who account for more than 20% of the electorate, Brown leads 74-21″, I could go on but why?”
    .
    http://www.redstate.com/

  • michaelfury
  • juniusredivivus

    http://www.cosmopolitan.com/celebrity/news/scott-brown-nude-in-cosmo
    .
    I am sure spob and rusty enjoy the thought of being teabagged by Scott Brown, but I don’t imagine the voters of Massachusetts will do the same. In the real America, the feverswamp imaginings of semi-literate Dixiecrats just don’t play very well. But hey, the Republicans can always perv on some beefcake, can’t they, spob, rusty, textee?

  • erniehaigs

    I am from Massachusetts. I am an independent voter who voted for President Obama and Governor Patrick. After what has occurred not only at the federal lever, but at the state level, which is overwhelmingly democratic, I an not only voting for Scott Brown, but am part of a group that is working his campaign. Our group is comprised of mostly independent voters who voted democratic in the last elections. However, our group also consists of some die hard democrats who have just had enough. No lie – it’s going to be a tough battle because there are so many residents who just vote a rubber stamp (D); but we are going to give it our best shot. A vote for Martha is a vote condoning the spend, spend, spend and tax, tax, tax of not only the federal government, but of our state government as well.

  • spob

    Thanks for proving my point, moron. I guess Amirault is just collateral damage . . . .

  • newfreedomblog

    Exactly what is in our blog…”The Shot Heard ‘Round The World”…
    .
    http:newfreedomblog.com

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek
  • newfreedomblog
  • juniusredivivus

    Spob, you’ve never made a coherent point in your life. But thanks for playing, kid.

  • spob

    Whatever, SFB.

  • themaverickformerlyknownasbasilbrush

    It seems that Brown really is all talk and no trousers. Standard issue right-wing politician, in other words. No wonder spob has his tongue hanging out.

  • spob

    Even if my tongue were hanging out (not that there’s anything wrong with that), I’ll take a beefcake who poses for any magazing in the nude over someone who fights to keep a demonstrably innocent man in prison. In a sane world, Coakley would be a pariah. But we can always count on libs to have situational ethics.

  • grollican

    Indeed. I am sure you think it’s fine for Brown to yell abuse at schoolchildren too. But let’s face it, spob is a proud member of the racist, dishonest and pitiably whackjob teabagger fringe. He’ll happily ignore David Vitter, John McCain, Sarah Palin, Mark Foley, Ted Haggard, John Ensign, Larry Craig… because spob doesn’t actually care about morality or decency. He just wants to express his hatred of Americans in general.

  • cigarcamel

    Ha ha ha ha you liberals will reap what you’ve sewn. Its time for a new sheriff, and this time we won’t allow no %$#% free spending…

  • spob

    Haggard, are you kidding me? He’s a freak. And Vitter–no matter what he did, fighting to keep a demonstrably innocent man in prison doesn’t even come close.

  • grollican

    Seems that spob’s suddenly developed a case of serious situational ethics there. But we already knew he was a nailed on hypocrite. In other news: Friday to follow Thursday, every week.

  • grollican

    Sown, little troll, sown. Here in America, we speak English. Remember that, next time you try to sneak across the border.

  • newfreedomblog

    “The New Year traditionally marks a fresh start, but heading into 2010 many Americans are facing serious financial troubles and are cautiously optimistic at best that this will be a year of positive financial news. Our latest polling shows that heading into 2010, nearly half of Americans (47%) say their financial situation is worse now than it was a year ago. That’s more than twice as many who say their financial situation has improved over the past year (19%). Nearly as many have not only been having a bad financial year, but a bad financial decade – 46% say their personal financial situation is worse now than it was 10 years ago.

    Will 2010 be the year things turn around, or will financial woes continue for many Americans this year? Slightly more (33%) are hopeful their personal financial situation will be better next year, compared to 29% who believe they will be worse off financially and 25% who expect their financial situation to stay about the same. Looking ahead to 10 years from now, most Americans can see better financial days ahead – nearly half (48%) of Americans expect they will be better off financially by 2020. Fewer than one in four Americans (22%) expect to be in a worse financial situation 10 years from now.

    When asked what they anticipate is in store for the economy as a whole over the next year, Americans are slightly more likely to believe the U.S. economy will be worse off next year (38%) than better off (35%).

    What do think lies ahead for the U.S. economy and your own financial situation in 2010? Are you hopeful your finances will improve, or do you fear the overall economy – and your own financial situation – could be worse at this time next year?”

    .
    Since we are talking about polls…
    .
    http://www.zogby.com/blog/
    .
    “It’s the ECONOMY STUPID

  • rustyreturns

    It is quite clear who is out “perving beefcake” little junius. Seems YOU are the one with the link to the naked men.
    .
    So little time to debate with little liberal loons like junius. Simply not worth my time.
    .
    Anymore 3rd graders wish to comment?

  • grollican

    I can see you have Mr Brown’s assets firmly on your mind, Rusty. I thought nice conservative boys weren’t supposed to take money for exposing themselves. But then, you rightwing losers don’t have any ethics, do you? It’s all sexually perverted preachers, male prostitutes, pedophiles, parents paying off adulterous liaisons and diaper-wearing junkies. Can’t you find a single Republican without ethics issues?

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    It’s amazing that I haven’t heard one word about what Brown stands for, or any other Republican for that matter. Unlike the media and some obviously informationally challenged citizens, I remember that it was Republicans that did nothing while millions of people lost their jobs, forced us to bail out the banks, and bail out the auto companies, but somehow we’ve decided that this was all Obama’s doing. Its one thing to be partisan, but don’t you still have to stand for something. I haven’t heard one conservative, teabagger or Republicans on this site state what these so called Republicans candidates stand for. What do they intend to do if they get to congress, because frankly simply saying vote for me because I hate Obama ought to not be enough to win considering you failed so miserably the last time you were in charge. While the media is intent on selling this narrative that Democrats are in disarray because they are basically lazy and its easier to just recycle punditry from 1994. Of course, this is 2010 and the only thing turning voters off more than Democrats is Republicans so where is the coverage of that?

  • rustyreturns

    “A List of Prominent Democrats in Trouble

    Senator Dodd, Chairman of Senate Finance Committee, (preferential mortgage treatment)

    Tom Daschle, nominee for Secy. of HHS, tax evasion.
    Rep. Rangel, Chairman of House Ways and Means Committee, Taxes.

    Blagojevich,Governor of Illinois, selling a Senate seat.

    Richardson, Governor of New Mexico, Obama Cabinet pick, grand jury investigation.

    Spitzer, Mayor of New York, hiring a prostitute.

    Larry Langford, Mayor of Birmingham (2008). Indicted for bribery.

    Marion Barry, former Mayor of Washington (2009)(current City Councilor). Failure to file income taxes (his cocaine conviction was a long time ago).

    Sam Adams, Mayor of Portland, Oregon (2009). Homosexual relations with a teenager.

    Kwame Kilpatrick, Detroit Mayor (2008). Charged with perjury, obstruction of justice and official misconduct stemming from a sex scandal and a whistle-blower lawsuit

    Sheila Dixon, Mayor of Baltimore (2009) indicted for perjury, theft, misconduct in office.

    Bernie Madoff (2008).

    William Jefferson (D-La). Racketeering, soliciting bribes, money laundering

    Attorney-General nominee Eric Holder (2008). (Marc Rich pardon, Puerto Rican terrorist pardon, testimony under oath that he’d not heard of Rich when in fact his office had litigated against a Rich company in 1995, while Rich was on the 10 Most Wanted list)

    .
    And, this is just the list from 2009…
    .
    Hmmm, where’s John Edwards??? Ethics you say?
    .
    So much for nude Cosmo photos from about 20+ years ago.

  • rustyreturns

    Here you go Dee, even though if you were smart enough to click on the link above that Jay put in her post, I’ll put it here JUST for you.
    .
    In his own words, what Senator-elect Brown stands for…
    .
    http://www.scottbrown.com/index.htm
    .
    AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  • spob

    dee, just check out coakley’s efforts with respect to gerald amirault . . . .
    .
    no true liberal could possibly vote for her

  • jfree600

    I’m amazed that as such an “educated” member of society, you fail to realize that, just because a republican held the executive seat in office, congress was controlled by liberals for the majority, if not all of Bush’s second term in office. And thanks to the system of “checks and balances”, allows any bill the democrats wanted, to pass regardless of a presidential veto. It also means, that even if Bush did pass any bill that has put our economy in the situation it is in now, it still had approval of a democratically controlled congress.

    So who could really be at fault?

  • pcwalt

    Dee, don’t you remember the 2006 elections? And the fact that the Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate shows that at least many of the Republican congressmen were not doing what their Republican base really wanted them to do. Their (and Bush’s) big spending and government expanding ways were what got them in trouble.
    .
    Nevertheless, it was the Democrats who were in control of both houses of congress (where all spending authorization begins and is decided) while what you complain about happened: the economy tanked, the banks were bailed out, the automakers were floated at taxpayer expense (to pay off the UAW).
    .
    And, for your amusement, you might want to check on how Barak Obama the senator voted on all these issues which you consider debacles.

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek

    Since there does not appear to be any overriding empirical evidence to support the premise of the title of this thread I can imagine several others titles of a similiar vein:

    Can the Democrats stop from totally imploding?

    Is Obama a more terrible president than Carter?

    Are people living in fear because the Republicans are not in control?

    Who is more dangerous to America, the Left, or the Taliban?

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    While granted some of you acknowledge that I am educated, you continue by suggesting that somehow I missed their real cause. Perhaps some of you should stop watching faux news and reading the talking points in redstate.com because the real force behind deregulation was Republican PHil Graham, deregulation has been at the heart of the problem for a decade and is the staple of GOP politics and that just can’t be denied. Now as to Republicans not being in charge, give me a break! The signature bill of Democrats in 2008 when they got back the house and had a one vote majority in the Senate, was SCHIP, which the Bush vetoed. Never mind the recession that has gone on for two years, where are all the jobs that was supposed to materialize from those massive tax cuts for the rich? The GOP’s use of filibusters rendered Democrats helpless to address any of the major problems at hand and has only been surpassed by their level of usage now. the GOP is not the least bit interested in governing only playing politics. They run up the deficits and take no responsibility for the consequences and then turn around and blame the people that come to clean up their mess. If there’s anyone who needs to be educated clearly is the GOP rank and file because they have been severely mislead.

  • juniusredivivus

    Derek, I don’t think Swampland is quite ready to face the fact of what the GOP has become. Taliban would be a more accurate name for their horde of semi-literate, bigoted misogynists in thrall to a mullahcracy of self-appointed pseudo-Christian preachers.

  • livfreeordi

    If you look at whose voters are most motivated to vote.

    If you look at whose voters are most passionate and determined.

    If you consider that 51% of independent voters in Massachusetts are unerolled independents..and they favor Brown by an overwhelming percentage.

    If you look at who has the momentum in the polls..

    Coakley may be screwed.

    Who would have ever thought that Massachusetts, through Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, may be the reason the nation is saved from Obama’s socialist agenda!

    Could it possibly be any more ironic?

  • livfreeordi

    Sorry to burst the bubble of the liberals who support Coakley, but the Boston Globe poll was taken from Jan 2-6.

    Public Policy Polling, a DEMOCRAT polling firm based in North carolina took a poll just this weekend..and it shows Brown ahead..and the enthusiasm and passion of likely voters is in his favor.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/toss-up-in-massachusetts.html

  • hoop11

    I think what is hurting the Democrat party is themselves and some in their party refuse to hold them accountable.
    Look at”
    1. Acorn, they appoint a committee to investigate them, the committee says’ they did no wrong……….did we not see with our own eyes their corruption?
    2.Charles Rangel, he is braking the laws he writes, they investigate him, and nothing. We know he is guilty.
    3.We are told that C-Span can televise Health Care, then now they can not.
    4. Look at the banks, the banks the Government now own. Geithner is now in hot water because he wanted CEO Edwards to not tell about the bonuses.
    5. The stimulus…………….where did the money go? not jobs.
    6. Obama went on this tour and told everyone he wanted to change Americans’ thinking, “bring it back to the thinking before 9/11. Because he did not believe we were in a war on terror.
    7.Do you feel safer than when Bush was in office? 72% of Americans don’t .

    I can understand why Democrats are loosing and they will continue to lose………………”lie, cheat and steal”

  • hoop11

    Cliff, do you really think that “Acorn” is not corrupt? Did you watch the videos?

    Do you think Charles Rangel is guilty? well he is, but will he pay?

    Van Jones should he have been a Czar?

    I guess you think Southers should be STA ?

    The reason we need a Congress with both Rep.and Dem. is for balance……..you do understand that corruption will occur if not.
    I wish our Senator could only serve 2 terms.

    I would like to see all of the CONGRESS replaced.. in every state. I think a lot of greed gets in there in both parties and we suffer for it.

    I do not love a “Party”

  • FlownOver

    Nate Silver (who called the Obama election nationwide within 1/10th of 1%) has examined all the polls, puts the race at Coakley by eight, and says he’d take the over. You’ll have to try harder to scare me, J N-S.

  • tsshiro

    It serves the Dems right after changing the rules twice to suit their agenda.

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