Can Republicans Snatch Defeat From Victory In 2010?

All signs should be pointing up for the GOP. They are the out-party at a time of serious economic woes–85,000 more jobs were shed in December and 661,000 people, or about as many people as live in Baltimore, gave up looking for work. Polls show rising enthusiasm among conservative voters and falling enthusiasm among Democratic voters. Republican Congressional recruitment is good, Democratic retirements and party-switchs are plenty. And the first mid-term election is just around the corner.

But then RNC Chair Michael Steele goes on ABC Radio, and it looks for a moment like the Party of Lincoln, Reagan and Bush is breaking at the seams. Salon’s Alex Koppelman summarizes Steele’s monologue.

During an interview with ABC News Radio Thursday, Steele said of his critics, “I tell them to get a life. That’s old Washington, that’s old ways, and I don’t represent that, and that kills them.” He went on to say, “I’m telling them and I’m looking them in the eye and say I’ve had enough of it. If you don’t want me in the job, fire me. But until then, shut up. Get with the program or get out of the way.”

To be clear, Steele was telling the leadership of his own party to “shut up.” This is the same Steele who announced to Sean Hannity of all people a few days ago that the GOP would not take over the House anytime soon. “Not this year,” he said. This is a bit like Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer showing up at the Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas to announce that Apple was going to keep making a better stuff for the foreseeable future. Not exactly reassuring.

There are other problems as well. Republican fundraising looks bad compared to Democratic fundraising. As Politico’s Ben Smith and Josh Kraushaar report:

The National Republican Congressional Committee, the key cog in helping to finance GOP campaigns, has banked less than a third as much money as its Democratic counterpart and is ending the year with barely enough money to fully finance a single House race — no less the dozens that will be in play come 2010. . . . The fundraising disparity between the two committees is striking: The DCCC outraised the NRCC this year by more than $18 million, according to FEC figures at the end of November. The NRCC has only $4.3 million left in its campaign account — with more than $2 million in debt — leaving it with just a pittance to fund the dozens of races it hopes to aggressively contest. The DCCC, meanwhile, is sitting on a $15.3 million nest egg (with $2.6 million owed), steadily expanding its cash-on-hand advantage over Republicans throughout the year.

It all makes one wonder: Can Republicans pull off a huge upset and blow their big 2010 opportunity? Place your bets.

Related Topics: michael steele, Republican Party
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  • deconstructiva

    Michael, which R’s are you talking about, the fiscal / corporate centrists or the social / religious / teabaggers / Sarah fans?

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    I would have even more respect for your article if you hadn’t included that line about Democratic party switchers and retirements. Because you know full well that Republicans have 3 times as many retirements, and I would say we’re even on party switchers, except the one coming from them gave us a 60 seat majority and the one going to them, won’t be excepted by their conservative base and will likely be primaried in 2010 — heck even his own staff disowned him — talk about the lack of Democratic enthusiasm — to quit your job in this economic climate over party affiliations is what I call enthusiastic.

  • queencersei

    The answer is yes. Politics is almost always local, relative and immediate. The elections are months away and anything can happen between now and then. Which anyone covering a political beat in journalism knows perfectly well. It’s like your asking us if spring follows after winter.

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    You’ve got a point deconstructiva — but you should have also added the right-leaning independents they are definitely going to need to win, you know the ones that used to call themselves Republicans and now can’t bring themselves to acknowledge the banner.

  • nflfoghorn

    For Repubs to improve their collective lot they have to have something up their sleeves other than the word “no.” What do they want to do–lower taxes, stop socialistic policies (in their view anyway)? In what direction do they want to take America? Do they have any ideas that have been proven to work? ANY AT ALL???
    .
    Fresh out of new ideas, they simply can’t justify–not even imply–th they can do a better job (or no worse of one) leading the country than Democrats.

  • nflfoghorn

    Sorry: …*that* they can do…

  • sacredh

    If they can’t do it in 2010 they are going to have a much harder time in 2012. The census is coming up and redistricting isn’t going to make it any easier. Michael Steele isn’t exactly Mr. Organization and Unity.

  • deconstructiva

    …good point, Dee. I experience that personally – many of my relatives are former republicans thanks to Bush. None of them admitted to voting for Palin / McCain.

  • rustyreturns

    Until Michael Steele is removed as Chairman, things will not look good for Republicans. Despite Newt Gingrich’s support, he is an out of control nut, just like Howard Dean.
    .
    The Washington Post had this report…
    .
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/07/AR2010010703699.html?hpid=topnews
    .
    Time for Michael to go! Oh, not you Michael Scherer, Michael Steele. :D
    .
    If People think Sarah Palin is a “Rogue”, Steele is a Barnum and Bailey Sideshow that would make any clown cry with admiration. I had hopes for him, but he is definately a liability now.

  • sacredh

    I’ll be interested in seeing if any candidates announce their intention to run for the presidency before the upcoming election. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for a Palin announcement.

  • http://derekg.wordpress.com/ Derek

    Their biggest asset is the demoralized Democratic base, it isn’t their platform of ideas, unless you consider the psychotic blathering’s of Sarah Palin or Glen Beck, ideas. A lot will depend on the economy, whether the right can come up with some ideas for addressing the problems and finally, if the Democrats can get their base interested again.

  • stuartzechman

    Michael Scherer:

    The DCCC outraised the NRCC this year by more than $18 million, according to FEC figures at the end of November.

    That’s interesting.
    .
    I know that I won’t give a dime to the DCCC, and I am anecdotally aware of netroots efforts to stem and ultimately stop rank and file funding of the DCCC. The online money-bomb just isn’t there for them anymore, and will be less and less, as internet ATM activists use ideologically consistent proxies like Act Blue and MoveOn, or direct candidate contributions in lieu of indirect, institutional, anti-primary, Beltway consultants’ salary paying DCCC (and DSCC) support –going largely to Third Way centrist candidates and incumbents, not liberals.
    .
    So where’s that money advantage coming from?
    .
    The DCCC is outraising the NRCC from whom, exactly?
    .
    Who constitutes the main financial support structure for the institutional Democratic Party? Unions? Industry? Ordinary folks? Banksters?
    .
    Who is giving more money to the Dems than to the GOP? On whom in particular is the Democratic Party leadership apparatus dependent for funds?
    .
    Thanks so much in advance for this important information, Michael Scherer.

  • Dee in Columbia MD

    And while the media focused more on New Jersey and Virginia because if you ignore all of the facts it could be spun into the narrative you wanted to push — the real predictive race was NY 23 where the outcome of the showdown between the establishment and teabaggers produced a Democratic victory. I’m betting on at least a three-peat as they try a similar strategy in Florida and Arizona.

  • rustyreturns

    I believe it is the same with the Republican donors as well stuart. I think major money players are sitting on the side lines because they do not like what they see from both parties.
    .
    Until and if one or the other parties comes out with “change we can believe in” meme as Obama was successful, but failed to deliver, voters I believe are going to take the position of “throw the bums out” in the up-coming election.
    .
    Someone who is a new comer, a candidate who professes to not be from the Washington insiders shows up, then the people will simply go vote for him or her no matter what their political affiliation happens to be. I know that is the direction I am going.
    .
    The time is so ripe for a 3rd or 4th party even to start. I am not sold on the Tea Party movement, but they seem to be in the front-end on this so far.

  • slowp

    Oh, it’s a happy happy day when the cynical and the dishonest get their just deserts.

    Let’s be clear about a few things MS is too polite to mention: Michael Steele is a nincompoop who was elevated to RNC Chair by the Republitards in one of their typically dishonest attempts to pretend that they’re something they’re not, in this case a party that is racially inclusive. (For those scoring at home, the have been 4 Black Republican members of Congress in the past 40 years; 0 at the moment).
    .
    In short, Steele perfectly exemplifies Republican policy: empty talk, purposely misleading optics, and wild incompetence. (Remember that, in the waning days of his unsuccessful Senate bid in 2006, Steele distributed bumper stickers that read “Michael Steele – Democrat” in a attempt to mislead voters into voting for him.)
    .
    Let’s hope the Republicans continue to get what they deserve for bringing this hack onboard!

  • allthingsinaname

    Come now, they don’t need any new ideas. Do you realy think it matters to voters in MN. what some idiot in Maine says?

  • nflfoghorn

    Heck, he probably agrees with Glenn Blech that he’s not an African-American ’cause he wasn’t born in Africa. Take that to another level: Irish-Americans weren’t born in Ireland, Jewish Americans aren’t from Israel…we are all Americans, right??

  • sacredh

    Dumping Steele months before the election may not be a wise move whether he is incompetent or not. It will be seen as a sign of disunity and there is always the possiblity that Steele would resort to retaliation and start trashing the very people that put him into his position. I’m sure Steele could hit the talk show circuit and dish out some dirt that we’re not aware of. They have to tread lightly until after the election and then dump him if that’s what they want to do. They’d have much longer to absorb the fallout and recover before the 2012 elections.

  • http://www.124monkeys.com Sean DeCoursey forgot his password

    You might want to check out the new Whig party. It was founded by Iraq/Afghan vets who were patently sick of both parties basically sucking. Mix of positions from both major parties – strong defense, economic responsibility, and a pro science/advancement philosophy.
    .
    Website is http://www.modernwhig.org

  • truevcu

    I’ll have to write something about this later, but it’s worth keeping in mind that both parties tend to pull together as the election draws closer (you’ll notice the forecasts of internecine warfare following the Obama/Clinton primary slugout never really materialized).

    The money issue is likely the most distressing: while there’s still plenty of time to work out a narrative and walk back any regrettable comments, statewide races don’t really build the same coherent party narrative the GOP needs as much as a presidential race. Thus unless you’re able to spend more to craft a message around every candidate you’ve got a heck of an uphill battle going for you.

    Then again the number of factors working against the dems might just even things out. I’ll wait and see what we’re all saying come september before forecasting.

  • kbanginmotown

    Right on, queenie, it’s all about the house race that MS and the MSM are addicted to.
    .
    If Michael were to ask:”The Dow dropped 26 points today, where will it be in November?”, we’d shrug our shoulders and laugh at the silliness of the question.
    .
    Yet, he and the rest display no hesitation in (repeatedly) posing the same question in a political context.
    .
    All together now: “Mike. We. Don’t. Give. A. Flying. #@&%.”

  • kbanginmotown

    Steele + TeaBaggers + Cheney + Palin ==
    …The Perfect Storm in 2010?

  • kbanginmotown

    Stuart: My guess would be PhRMA and the Banking Industry. Yours?
    .
    Snooping around DCCC.com didn’t shed any light. Are they not required to disclose contributors in the same manner as political candidates?

  • truevcu

    Sounds nice. A pity third parties in this country are always automatically stillborn.

  • 53_3

    They wanted Micheal Steele to be their (the phrase is widely used in the Black Community to describe him).
    .
    As such, he’s not supposed to be smart. He’s supposed to sit in the back of the bus like a (the phrase is widely used in the Black Community to describe this action).
    .
    Rush Limbaugh will no doubt reappear to admonish Micheal Steele in a most un-2010-is way to sit in the back of the bus and be quiet.
    .
    Again…

  • slowp

    The problem at the moment w/ the Tea Party is it seems like not only the home of some genuinely well-meaning & thoughtful libertarians, but also the repository for every crank, misanthrope, psycho, and halfwit with nowhere to go.

    And you can already see – w/ Palin yammering about death panels, and Bachmann howling stuff about the census that she clearly knows not to be true – that the TP is already providing the impetus for a fevered scrum to the bottom for those seeking its votes.

  • notfooledbydistractions

    Until Michael Steele is removed as Chairman, things will not look good for Republicans. Despite Newt Gingrich’s support, he is an out of control nut, just like Howard Dean.

    Really rusty? Dean, that “out of control nut” ran a stellar 50 state strategy and cleaned the republicans clocks in 2006 and 2008. I’ll take Deans brand of nuttiness anyday – it’s a proven success. Meanwhile, steele is nothing but a trainwreck.

    Until the republicans decide to do their jobs and look for solutions to (the problems of their making) our problems, they’re going to have a tough time. What have you done for me lately? Standing on the sidelines objecting to everything just isn’t going to cut it. I don’t care if Jesus himself was head of the RNC – without ideas or solutions, the republicans won’t gain much if any ground.

  • nonsocialistfuture

    Democrats / Liberals will fail in 2010 due to a state of denial. It is fine to pretend that the Teaparty Movement is not real, in an effort to discredit, downplay and dismiss the approaching tsunami, but this movement will define the future of our country. Steele recognizes that Republicans must realign the party principles, platform and strategy to harness that movement. This means that liberals will use every means possible to discredit and derail Steele in an effort to defend the disastrously failing Administration, Congress and Liberal Progressive Movement.

  • koabd

    “Heck, he probably agrees with Glenn Blech that he’s not an African-American ’cause he wasn’t born in Africa.”
    .
    There are black people in this country who did not sign-up for the term “African-American.” We don’t assign white Americans the unifier “European American” because Europe, like Africa, is a multi-ethnic, multi-cultural geography whose people are unified by a single allele trait (in Europe’s case, light skin). Furthermore, by virtue of being in this multi-ethnic country, the majority of black people in this country (myself included) can attribute a portion of their genetic make-up to people whose most immediate ancestors hail from Europe or were native to this continent (in my case, I have German and Cherokee Indian grandparents).
    .
    So, if your message is as you say (“we’re all Americans”), that’s fine. But let’s not try to pull something from a speculative assertion that Steele doesn’t like the term “African American.” Because the term “African American” never really made sense (it wreaks of Sarah Palin-esque “Africa’s a country nonsense).

  • apr2563

    Notfooled is right. Governor/Dr. Dean ran the DNC brilliantly. He broadened the campaigns to 50 states, used the internet to raise millions of dollars and to put together organizational support, and he was able to pull the Dems away from the losing DLC. Little credit was given by the establishment Dems.
    Gingrich still supports Steele because like most Republicans he can’t admit mistakes. His excuse now is that because Steele is black he makes the Rep leadership uncomfortable. Wow, nice defense of Steele and his party.
    During the civil rights movement, television brought us pictures of dogs and fire hoses attacking white and black protesters. The tactics used by the right backfired then because of revulsion at the pictures. The election of a black man seems to have encouraged the intolerance of many and as it is exposed, it will damage their tacit sponsors, the right. Pictures of men carrying guns, Obama as a witch doctor and shoe shine boy, the N word on signs, rants of hatred and violence are equally revolting. And few in the Rep party refute these words and images. Instead the exploit the intolerance.
    Palin, Bachmann, and others follow in the fine tradition of that faux populist George Wallace.

  • apr2563

    Who’s discreditting and trying to derail Steele? It appears to be his party. Liberals love Steele, we love Palin, we love DeMint, we love Inhofe, we love Virginia Fox, we love Beck, we love Bachmann.
    We love that they define the Republican party….

  • apr2563

    Thanks for putting the money game in perspective Stuart. I have not given to any Democratic group for months. My donations go to individual candidates through ActBlue. Believe it or not I think this got Donna Edwards elected and defeated a corrupt Dem from reelection. It can work. This makes the establishment very nervous. Every time a Dem group calls for donations or emails I explain my reasons. I am sure they have heard from many others.
    Until there is real campaign reform, regulation of our financial and insurance institutions, and voter understanding of who buys our representatives, little will change. Tea baggers yelling and screaming and not understanding who is exploiting them, is not the solution.
    Big money pours money into the coffers of whoever is in power.

  • apollyon07

    Ah it seems like just months ago that liberals were boldly proclaiming the end of the Republican Party. Seems like there is a lesson to be learned here.
    .
    Republicans probably won’t take back either chamber, but will almost for sure win a hefty amount of seats in each. It seems most people are predicting about a 4-6 seat pickup in the Senate. If I were them I would not just go for the “gimme” seats, they need better candidates in some of the less prominent races.

  • apollyon07

    here here koabd! I’ve never thought the term “African American” made much sense. Many other people in my age group agree too.

  • http://2thirdsrocks.wordpress.com 2thirdsrocks

    And we love that you love it apr. Please please please hold that thought. Embrace it, live it , tell all your liberal friends. You are our greatest asset!

  • apr2563

    apolly: It wasn’t liberals foreseeing the death of the Republican Party. It was the media. They predicted the end of the Dems after the 92 sweep.
    They just love conflict.

  • cp4ab0lishm3nt

    With the kind of conservative rhetoric, I do not see the Republicans getting on board. Perhaps in the conservative and/or religious states.

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