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Today in Tehran

By Joe Klein | @JoeKleinTIME | December 28, 2009 | +

The latest from the New York Times. This part may be a turning point:

There were scattered reports of police officers surrendering, or refusing to fight. Several videos posted online show officers holding up their helmets and walking away from the melee, as protesters pat them on the back in appreciation. In one photograph, a police officer can be seen holding his arms up and wearing a bright green headband, the signature color of the opposition movement.

There are also reports that people on the south side of town–the poorer, more religious, Ahmadinejad-supporting sector–are extremely upset about the regime using violence on Ashura, a day devoted to the peaceful mourning of the death of the martyr Hussein. The question now is: will there be a significant reaction to this among the clerics in Qom (and not just the quietists, who oppose direct clerical involvement in government)?

The best course of action for President Obama at this point is to stand in solidarity with the demonstrators, but go no further. There is nothing to be gained from grandstanding, and much to lose. He should be working the Russians and Chinese particularly hard under the table this week–a targeted sanctions announcement punishing the Revolutionary Guard dictatorship, but not the Iranian middle class, would be particularly effective way to reinforce the anti-regime forces and to demonstrate the military dictatorship’s isolation from the rest of the world.

The most vexing potential conundrum now is that the regime, in order to regain legitimacy, turns around and accepts the nuclear non-proliferation deal negotiated in Geneva a few months  ago. What does Obama do then? Can he continue to have dealings with the regime, as George H.W. Bush decided to do with China after Tiananmen? A very tough call…but I’d say, take the concession and then keep the pressure on Iran to comply with the non-proliferation treaty it signed.

But that’s the wildest sort of speculation at this point. The next thing that has to happen in Iran is a rising of the religious elite to join the protesters in the streets.

Update: Andrew Sullivan, who has been just excellent on this story all weekend, has a list of those arrested by the regime today.

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  • arbitrarystring

    a targeted sanctions announcement punishing the Revolutionary Guard dictatorship, but not the Iranian middle class,

    What would that entail? The gasoline sanctions that keep getting brought up would fall squarely on the Iranian middle class.

  • square1

    Is there any evidence that sanctions are effective as anything other than a short-term bargaining chip? Just for once, it would be nice if our political pundits, politicians, and self-described experts would reflect back on what has and hasn’t work to bring down (or moderate) tyrannical regimes over the past century.

    By and large, sanctions haven’t been effective. What has been effective has been pressing authoritarian regimes to open themselves to the international community.

    The dynamic seems both obvious and simple: Authoritarianism grows in darkness and withers in sunlight. Sanctions tend to increase darkness and are usually counterproductive.

  • sevenoaks07

    Andrew Sullivan and crew have done a great job reporting this. I appreciate your ack that Joe. The pictures, esp of the dead nephew of Moussavi shows that some targeting is taking place. In this context can one see the Iranians worrying about things nuclear?

  • apr2563

    Joe: I am following this with Andrew Sullivan on the Daily Dish. I consider it a huge story. Why does the msm mostly ignore it? Why do bloggers have more access and more information about what is happening?
    It is a perfect visual story, it is dramatic, it is historic, yet we are more worried about firing Napilatano for her stupid statement.
    Of course, we have Lieberman and his cohorts urging the bombing of Iran, continued war in Iraq and Afghanastan, and now war with Yemen.
    Maybe, if the msm spent more time telling the hard stories then dodging them by saying they are too complicated for people to understand, we would quit supporting foolish policies.
    I remember the Hungarian revolution. My family took in some refugees. The events were big news and we were witness to the bravery of the people and the mistakes that were made by our government. I was just a child, but good reporting made a real impression on me. Reporting and pictures from Vietnam helped us understand the futility of that war. There were embedded reporters but also those who saw the whole picture and reported it.
    It seems the traditional press has disbanded their international sites and pulled back to superficial coverage of so many things.
    If you go to Andrew Sullivan’s site, there are several videos that will bring tears to your eyes. The most heartening and heartbreaking is the video of the cries in the dark of night calling for freedom from the regime.

  • cfukara

    ” .. This part may be a turning point .. Several videos posted online …”
    If you didn’t know better you’d think that everybody in Iran is up in arms against organized living – just by looking at Obama-promoted Twitter messages. But then, how many in Iran know about Twitter?

    JK, are you planning a tour of Pandora next summer? I wonder, can that land that looks so real on video be non-existent?
    .
    ” ..people on the south side of town… are extremely upset about the regime using violence on Ashura, ..”

    Suppose violent, seditious protesters in USA tried to ride piggyback on ex-Sen Kennedy’s burial ceremonies (and the media and nation’s focus thereon) to stage their outlawed demonstrations and create mayhem in an effort to publicize their cursed agenda.
    Would JK praise the seditionists?

    It is likely that the peace-loving religious people are terribly upset at the demonstrators who would hijack national day celebrations for their selfish purposes. But biased “free and fair” JK may spin it differently.
    .
    ” .. would be particularly effective way to reinforce the anti-regime forces ..”
    What happened to a respect for the sovereignty of oter nations that POTUS touted in Cairo a few weeks back? Are you really with the program, JK?
    Suppose you think that it is OK to interfere in the internal affairs of other nations. Is it OK for other nations to interfere in OUR affairs?
    .
    “keep the pressure on Iran to comply with the non-proliferation treaty .. “

    Why would POTUS do that?
    JK, why didn’t we keep pressure on the rogue state of Israel to sign and abide by the treaty – before it developed its WMDs? After all, that pauper state of Israel depends entirely on the goodwill of USA and Africa for its unsustainable survival “the way they know it”.

    If WMDs are the issue, then why do we impose sanctions on Iran but not on Israel?
    Iran can/may withdraw as party to that treaty. Then what? Launch an attack Iran’s WMD sites as well as those of Israel – or do we attack Iran’s only?
    [The latter, of course. Right, JK?]

  • Joe Klein

    APR–My best guess is that this story is being under-emphasized on TV and, to a certain extent, in print because there are no western journalists there to cover it. A real shame since, as you say, this is not only crucial and heart-rending but the various videos are really compelling. I wonder if the story is getting out within Iran…via BBC Persia perhaps? Does any reader know?

  • abdullah69

    If the US cannot even stop a Nigerian, even whose mother thinks is a suspected terrorist, from trying to board a plane to the US, then how are “selective” sanctions going to work?

  • michaelfury
  • kathy

    Joe – I’ve wondered the same thing. CNN (I think) had a piece form a BBC journalist (I think) last week, and I wondered at the time how he was being able to report, considering what had happened to Maziar Bahari. I did see the report, just don’t remember what the originating channel was. (It could be that I saw this on the CBC, which I frequently watch. Their news is much less endowed with false drama than any American channel. NECN (out of Boston) has had proportionately more coverage than some of the national cable channels, too.

    That said, there has been woefully little on the teevee,and I feel for those in Iran risking their lives to get video out assuming someone is giving it coverage.

  • kathy

    And thanks, too, for acknowledging Andrew Sullivan’s work. We can be grateful that he has readers worldwide.

  • persianadvocate

    Joe,

    Without going into it at detail, the Iranian government isn’t able to cut the people entirely off from developments as they actually occur. I won’t go into detail as it may serve to enlighten the very same people seeking to silence the protesters and to keep the people in the dark. In addition, many media outlets have hired average Iranians to covertly report the going-ons of this movement.

  • persianadvocate

    Joe,

    This is a regime that was born into and has thrived under sanctions. I can’t think of one type of sanction that would specifically cripple the Guard without affecting the average Iranian, can you? As we move away from Iran and offer them the stick of sanctions, forcing European companies to nix deals with the Iranians, China and Russia are quick to fill the void we create with lucrative deals for their energy-dependent economy. We’re not punishing anyone but ourselves and the average Iranian with sanctions — let’s get real.

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