The latest from the New York Times. This part may be a turning point:
There were scattered reports of police officers surrendering, or refusing to fight. Several videos posted online show officers holding up their helmets and walking away from the melee, as protesters pat them on the back in appreciation. In one photograph, a police officer can be seen holding his arms up and wearing a bright green headband, the signature color of the opposition movement.
There are also reports that people on the south side of town–the poorer, more religious, Ahmadinejad-supporting sector–are extremely upset about the regime using violence on Ashura, a day devoted to the peaceful mourning of the death of the martyr Hussein. The question now is: will there be a significant reaction to this among the clerics in Qom (and not just the quietists, who oppose direct clerical involvement in government)?
The best course of action for President Obama at this point is to stand in solidarity with the demonstrators, but go no further. There is nothing to be gained from grandstanding, and much to lose. He should be working the Russians and Chinese particularly hard under the table this week–a targeted sanctions announcement punishing the Revolutionary Guard dictatorship, but not the Iranian middle class, would be particularly effective way to reinforce the anti-regime forces and to demonstrate the military dictatorship’s isolation from the rest of the world.
The most vexing potential conundrum now is that the regime, in order to regain legitimacy, turns around and accepts the nuclear non-proliferation deal negotiated in Geneva a few months ago. What does Obama do then? Can he continue to have dealings with the regime, as George H.W. Bush decided to do with China after Tiananmen? A very tough call…but I’d say, take the concession and then keep the pressure on Iran to comply with the non-proliferation treaty it signed.
But that’s the wildest sort of speculation at this point. The next thing that has to happen in Iran is a rising of the religious elite to join the protesters in the streets.
Update: Andrew Sullivan, who has been just excellent on this story all weekend, has a list of those arrested by the regime today.