In the Arena

Abbas Out?

Maybe he’s not bluffing this time. The eminently reliable Ethan Bronner seems to think Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, may well make good on his threat to quit. If he’s gone, the Palestinians are going to scuffle to find a new leader. Odds are, in such a fraught circumstance, they choose a tough guy, a hard-liner–to match the Israel’s intransigent Netanyahu.

If Abbas is serious, this is horrible news. And, clearly, the Obama Middle East initiative has come a cropper. I’m hearing, from several sources, that there’s serious White House displeasure with special envoy George Mitchell. That’s probably unfair…but there is a serious need for an Administration rethink of this crucial policy area.

Related Topics: Benjamin Netanyahu, George Mitchell, Mahmoud Abbas, Middle East peace process, Obama foreign policy, Uncategorized
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  • spob

    I think the West Bank Palestinians need to root out corruption, create a “rule of law” and figure out a way to do economic development.
    .
    Worrying about tiny growth of Israeli settlements shows a complete lack of priorities.
    .
    By the way, it’s totally unfair to Mitchell. Hillary Clinton has completely botched this. She served up the laughable idea that Jews cannot build in East Jerusalem. And then she backtracked on the settlement freeze point, thus ticking off both the Israelis and the Palestinians. Total amateur hour.

  • cfukara

    ” ..If Abbas is serious, this is horrible news. ..”

    “horrible” to the Palestinians?
    The Palestinians tried the accommodating Arafat. They have nothing to show for it.

    Then the Palestinians tried the cowardly Abbas – and they have nothing to show for it other than the more oppressive big boot of Israel – more destruction, more of their houses demolished or commandeered and more death from USA’s Israel.

    Isn’t it possible that a more vitriolic, nationalistic, Palestinian leader who goes toe-to-toe with Netanyahu’s supremacist brinkmanship would advance the process of achieving a lasting solution in that area?

  • jacobstoatgobbler

    Maybe Abbas is actually tired – after all it’s only 42 years since he lost a country. Who wouldn’t be upset that they cannot even enjoy retirement in a place called home? And as for blaming Mitchell – doesn’t he work for Hilary?

    After Netanyahoo’s tongue-in-cheek demand for “immediate negotiations” “Without conditions” (wait – isn’t that also conditional – how clever!!) at the weekend and the initial quickstep followed by the 3 month-long pas-de-douche over the settlements freeze (is that also a global-warming victim?) as predicted by many a 1- or 2-fingered salute to the Obama administration, perhaps the President needs to take this off the dancefloor and onto the basketball court – at the moment it looks like that’s the only place he’s going to win this one. Time for some Tough Love, and I do not mean Reggie.

    Death-Match-Middle-East-Knockout-Hoops, anyone, $1billion (in armament subsidies) per point?

  • cfukara

    ” .. the West Bank Palestinians need to root out corruption, create a “rule of law” and figure out a way to do economic development…”

    That sounds like the argument I heard from a Boer a few yeard ago regardling the lot of the natives living in the tribal enclaves/bantustans of apartheid South Africa.
    We advance similar arguments from the likes of Bill Kristol regarding Zimbabwe whose economy and society we have destroyed with our economic sanctions.
    You probably don’t know much about the realities of living in a land occupied by a foreign imperial power …

    ” ..
    .
    Worrying about tiny growth of Israeli settlements shows a complete lack of priorities. ..”

    To what extend would we, the Americans, tolerate the existence on our lands of settlements – however tiny – of opinionated, holier-than-thou supremacist foreigners (or worse, occupiers) who denigrate and victimize the Americans? [Take that further, suppose the occupiers are eternal enemies with who we have always had a bloody vendetta ...]

  • square1

    You can’t impose peace on people who don’t want it. It has been clear for some time that the neocons in Israel — like the neocons in the U.S. — never have and never will believe in a two-state solution. Their game is to constantly propose unworkable solutions that they know full-well the Palestinians can’t or won’t accept. I understand why Israelis would choose a leader like Netanyahu, but I also understand why he will never be a partner in peace.

  • http://theblindspotsofgod.wordpress.com lawyermommy

    Mr. Klein,

    No one can blame them if they chose a hardliner, the Israeli’s made the same choice in electing Netanyahu.

    Oh well, we can get ready for a real explosion in the middle East if Abbas is really bowing out. It is quite unlikely that the angry Palestinians will choose a moderate.

    I hope the Obama Administration does some quick damage control to contain the fall out, if indeed Abbas is really bowing out.

    What a mess.

    LM
    http://theblindspotsofgod.wordpress.com/2009/11/06/i-fully-support-gun-ownership/

  • jacobstoatgobbler

    I believe Net&Yahoo wants a 1 state solution only – that was his election platform – containing only those who support a Jewish State. Disenfranchise the Israeli Arabs, and any and all other minorities that might exercise a democratic right in a direction other than the path he has chosen. There is no desire to settle for a Palestinian State.

    Actually I don’t belive there is a desire to govern a multicultural state either. As has been discussed many times, with far more knowledge than I can muster, your comments included, to have peace, you have to have a partner, not a hostile takeover, Kraft-stylee.

  • spob

    Does anyone think Abbas is a sine qua non to peace?

  • jacobstoatgobbler

    Ita Vero

  • Exiled_At_Home (formerly Neo)

    Spob~
    While you are absolutely entitled to your views, perhaps, and this is merely a suggestion, you should refrain from voicing those thoughts on Palestine, as you convey a complete lack of understanding of the nuances involved.
    ~
    I think the West Bank Palestinians need to root out corruption, create a “rule of law” and figure out a way to do economic development.
    Rule of law relies upon autonomy, no? How can the West Bank create a rule of law under occupation? How can it sustain economic development amidst 30,000 illegal Israeli settlements that are linked together by way of Jewish-only infrastructure? West Bank is entirely divided by settlements, Jewish roads, and checkpoints. Have you looked at a map of the West bank which included all settlement and checkpoint locales? It’s completely dysfunctional so long as an oppressive Israeli presence remains. Why doesn’t Israel simply leave the West Bank and end the occupation in accordance with the 4th Geneva Convention? How can you justify Israeli presence in the West Bank, Spob?
    ~
    Worrying about tiny growth of Israeli settlements shows a complete lack of priorities.
    Are you completely dense? There are 500,000 illegal Israeli settlers in the West Bank? What tiny growth arises from 500,000 people? This in no small footprint, Spob. Their presence is entirely illegal, Spob, not because they are Israeli (as immigration is perfectly legitimate), but because they live in compounds paid for by the Israeli government (actually, US tax dollars), on indisputable Palestinian lands, amidst a system of Israeli occupation in complete contravention of the 4th Geneva Convention.
    ~
    She served up the laughable idea that Jews cannot build in East Jerusalem.
    Laughable? Perhaps if Jerusalem were an independent, international city as per the 1947 Partition Plan (which Israel violated when it conquered and annexed Jerusalem). However, now that Israel has occupied the city and consistently revokes building permits for Arabs, not only in West Jerusalem, but East as well, then it is entirely reasonable to simply split the city between East and West, between Israel and Palestine. Given Israel’s lengthy history of discrimination against Arabs in the Holy City, there is no reason not to deny Israelis the privilege of building in East Jerusalem. Israel has time and time again demonstrated its unwillingness to integrate the city, so this is their own self-constructed result: segregation.

  • http://aroundthesphere.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/know-when-to-fold-em/ Know When To Fold ‘Em « Around The Sphere

    [...] Joe Klein at Swampland at Time: Maybe he’s not bluffing this time. The eminently reliable Ethan Bronner seems to think Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, may well make good on his threat to quit. If he’s gone, the Palestinians are going to scuffle to find a new leader. Odds are, in such a fraught circumstance, they choose a tough guy, a hard-liner–to match the Israel’s intransigent Netanyahu. [...]

  • square1

    Abbas isn’t a sine qua non to peace. Having good faith actors on both sides is a sine qua non. On the Palestinian side, it means leaders who are willing to accept the concept of foregoing violence against Israel if a negotiated agreement could be made. On the Israeli side, it means leaders who are willing to accept the concept of self-determining Palestinians living alongside Israel.
    .
    The key isn’t that Abbas is leaving. The key is WHY he is leaving: Because he became convinced that Israel’s leaders are not good-faith actors.

  • Exiled_At_Home (formerly Neo)

    Square1~
    Their game is to constantly propose unworkable solutions that they know full-well the Palestinians can’t or won’t accept.
    This concept here, so simple, so succinct, and yet it is consistently ignored. It is the single most important piece of this puzzle, it is the cause of 60 years of violence, oppression, and unaccountability. Israel has always characterized herself as the defender of freedom, the quintessential self-preservationist, while painting a caricature of the Palestinians as obstructionists and extremists. The Palestinians, more so than they could have ever been expected by reasonable people, have capitulated to Israeli demands time and time again. Arafat’s appeasement bargained away nearly half of Palestinian lands for nothing in return. Yet, overwhelmingly, what Israel offers is complete surrender, that which the Palestinians cannot accept. For their dignity, for their hopes of a future, for their dreams of self-rule, they cannot accede these unjust and unreasonable Israeli demands. They are subsequently painted as inherently opposed to peace. This concept is the driving force behind the shocking brutality that has been all but ignored by western media for decades. It’s really quite pathetic and shameful.

  • rdw56

    Abbas pulls this act periodically, whenever he’s feeling unwanted or he’s been negotiated into a blind corner as Obama has done to him.

    There won’t be any explosion. Life in the West Bank is good. The economy is booming. Abbas was there when Arafat pulled his act and Yasir spent the last two years of his life asking Sharon when he could go to the potty. Abbas isn’t going to make that mistake. Nor will his successor. And knowing the recent history of the West Bank if Abbas’ successor makes that decision he won’t survive long.

  • rdw56

    Obama made a critical mistake in making the settlements an issue. The Palestinians and Jews have been negotiating on and off for two decades while settlements were being constructed.

    Current construction is on land expect to go to Israel in a land swap already tentatively agrees too in prior negotiations. Even if that were not true what is the problem for Abbas if he gets land back that has been improved?

    There is no logical reason for settlements to hold up talks. The fact is a two-state solution isn’t possible until Palestine is a single state and today it is not.

  • rdw56

    The key is he’s been forced into a corner by Obama’s idiotic insistance on a halt to all settlement construction and he has no way out.

    Worse Netanyahu has been running a clinic on Obama as Joe has suggested with his terrific phrase ‘ BiBi as Gandhi’ act. Netanyahu won’t pass a camera without posing for peace. Last Sunday night he was treated to high praise on Israeli TV at a press conference with Hillary Clinton for his ‘unprecidented offer’

    This infuriated Abbas but the fact is Netanyahu has proven to Israeli voters he’s working constantly for peace. Getting Hillary’s praise was no small deal. The fact is, BiBi is the one promising to meet any where at any time. You can call him a ‘not-good-falth’ actor but until you actually met with him you can’t prove it.

    It might be a cynical act on his part but you’ll have to call his ‘bluff’ to find out.

  • rdw56

    George Mitchell is beging set up as the fall guy and that’s pretty egregious but then Obama has tossed many under that bus.

    Mitchell is a very capable negotiator as he’s proven time and again. Unlike Obama and Hillary he’s actually accomplished things. It would be a big mistake on their parts to blame him.

    The fact is George took this job for a year. He is near 76. He’s managed a brutal travel schedule with endless negotiations. Abbas is trapped, He cannot really go ahead with the elections anyway and he damn sure cannot meet with Netanyahu ahead of them. Assuming he does run by the time it’s over Mitchell will have served a full year and it won’t be like there’s been any progress.

    There won’t be an election in January and Abbas is leaving anything. This is all about gaming the politics to get something from Obama.

  • tanboontee

    Abbas has been at his wit’s end, not knowing how to contain the Hamas, unsure if the US is supporting him in any way.

    So, the smart move is to send out a signal of resignation to find out whether he still has the command or influence. Otherwise, it seems no point for him to linger on. Indeed, quite a pathetic situation.

  • abdullah69

    Abbas could either spend the money he gets from the EU and others on buying support in the US, like the Israelis do, or he could stash it away in Switzerland like his prdecessor did. (Or C) he could spend it on the welfare of the Palestinians, but hey, let’s not get into fantasies here.)

    In the absence of any evidence to support A), one can safely assume that Abbas will not be listing Gaza as his address much longer. Maybe Monaco instead.

  • cfukara

    rdw56: ” .. the fact is Netanyahu has proven to Israeli voters he’s working constantly for peace. ..”

    And the neo-cons were pursuing peace by way of the violent invasion of Iraq – and the subsequent orgy of gore and purges.. Even the tortures, rapes and murders were geared towards achieving peace, you may proffer from your safe perch..

    And then serpent in the garden of aden was godly. It was too..

    If it wouldn’t surprise us to find that RustyReturns is a Republican and it wouldn’t surprise us to find that you are one of those nasty fanatic jews waving mystic manifestos and commandeering Palestinian houses – using the long-suffering, beleaguered American taxpayer’s revenue.

    [In the USA, We declare that a man's home (for which he toiled and sweated to build) is his castle and he will fight for it than have a stranger - even a government - violate its premises - let alone cavalierly eject him and move into it a stranger's cursed brood. Is it a wonder that the Palestinians fight - and sacrifice their blood and bodies - for what is their own, from one generation to the next ...]

  • cfukara

    ” .. Life in the West Bank is good. The economy is booming. .. “

    Dream on, little creep.

    The British probably said the same about their American colonies – before we made our tea party – and spilled their blood.

  • cfukara

    rdw56: ” .. The Palestinians and Jews have been negotiating on and off for two decades while settlements were being constructed. ..”

    And that state off affairs was OK with you because YOU, or your friends in this struggle, were the ones commandeering THEIR lands for your use. Now, suppose foreigners were commandeering YOUR lands and putting up structures on it. Negotiations would cease immediately and bitter hostilities would commence, right?

    Are good faith negotiations helped along if the aggressor persists with the aggression – and in fact ratchets it up?

  • cfukara

    ” .. There won’t be an election in January and Abbas is leaving anything. ..”

    My! Here is genuine prophet.

    Yet for Israel he would do and ‘foretell’ anything ..

  • mrein

    Cfukara-
    .
    Do you think it was a coincidence that there were no attacks from (and therefore on) the West Bank during the Gaza war last year?
    .
    It was because the residents of the West Bank apparently recognize that they will return to the life of no checkpoints and easier travel (as they had before 1987) as terrorism subsides.
    .
    And so it has.

  • Tom in The Swamp

    The Israelis have tried to have it both ways for too long WRT the occupied territories. Either they don’t own them, in which case they must stop blockading them and starving out the citizenry there, or they own them and they have to govern them themselves. Abbas is tired of propping up the former illusion, and is throwing the whole mess Israel has created back into Israel’s face.

    Good on him. I wish him and the people of the West Bank and Gaza success in this moment of brinksmanship.

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