In the Arena
Iran

Ahmadinejad the Moderate?

By Joe Klein | @JoeKleinTIME | October 26, 2009 | +

The usually excellent David Sanger has a very frustrating piece of analysis in the NY Times today. He reports that a public debate has erupted in Iran over whether to accept the west’s nuclear non-proliferation offer:

For days now, Iran’s leadership has been fighting over whether to take that deal, with political opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad all but declaring that he is being duped.

Among them is the speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, who is Iran’s former nuclear negotiator. On Saturday, he was widely quoted in the Iranian press as saying that the West was trying to deceive Iran and might never return its enriched uranium.

This is curious on several grounds. For one thing, Sanger presents no evidence that Ahmadinejad actually favors the deal. For another, Ahmadinejad has limited, if any, say over the nuclear program. It’s also curious because Speaker Larijani is known to be close to the Supreme Leader, who does have control over the nuclear program. Does that mean the Supreme Leader also opposes the deal? And where are the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, who may actually run the country, and are perceived to be close to Ahmadinejad?

If you’re having difficulty picking your way through the paragraph above, join the club: we really still have only a vague notion of how Iran is governed. This public dispute–if it really is a dispute and not a smokescreen–only adds to that confusion.

Related Topics: Ali Larijani, Mahmoud Ahamadinejad, Iran, Uncategorized

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  • homerhk

    For what it’s worth – and it is only anecdotal – I had lunch yesterday with my uncle – in – law who lives in Tehran. He said the focus in Tehran was on the upcoming anniversary of the occupation of the US embassy when the protestors are planning to be out in force. He characterised Ahmadinejad as a joke within Iran – a man who is now not able to open the windows of his car whenever he travels and can’t speak without someone protesting “where are the votes” behind him.

    As for the protests after the election he said that they served one important purpose – to show the opposition and reform minded people that they are actually in the majority – something which was never before clear. Interestingly he said that that would be the case, whatever section of the population you looked at, including the army and Revolutionary Guard.

    In terms of the so called public debate about the nuclear talks, he basically said that no-one was really talking about it and that it was a bit of a sideshow, i.e. not that important to the population at large.

  • sevenoaks07

    Homerhk: Your last point is important. The nuclear debate is the pre-occupation of elites (?) in both countries and more widely in Israel. Here people are focused on making ends meet, as many do in Iran.

    Much of the pressure on us and our European allies comes from Israel.

  • nflfoghorn

    Don’t forget that Iran is a completely discombobulated, if not unstable, country. The Supreme Leader will do what he can to stay relevant and firmly hold his foot on the masses.

  • cfukara

    I wonder, what reasons Israel has for its nuclear program?

    Iran may advance the same or similar reasons – perhaps with the paid services of some ever-willing, money-worshiping USA neo-conservative strategists to tune and polish up the psyche-war message …

    [Principles? Morality? Patriotism? Ethics? Maybe Not - just greed, money. Note the cursed hatchet job they do on our POTUS - and follow the money ..]

    [Of course we know that it really doesn't matter what "reasons" Iran has for its nuclear program. Or Israel, for its offensive nuclear program.]

  • persianadvocate

    Mr. Klein,
    The ultimate authority in Iran is vested none other than the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He is the final arbiter of all decisions in Iran and constitutionally exercises control over the army, media, parliament and police. However, there are soft-checks to his power. Amongst these are his need to stay legitimate in the eyes of the people, other influential mullahs and, finally, his ability to actually sustain control by making sure that he has recourse for any dissidence at any level.

    In understanding Iran, it is important to distinguish the key contrast between that of Iranians and Americans: Iranians remember things for much longer. When Ali Larijani makes such a statement, there is a larger context applicable that the media in the West either purposely ignores or recklessly ignores. Iran has a long history of being duped out of technological advances that goes well back, even over 200 years. If you’d like to me to cite some examples, I’d be more than happy to, but in the interest of saving my own time, I urge you simply and respectfully to “google it”. In other words, Iranians have meritorious and substantial reasons as to why they believe the West is trying to dupe them yet out of another technological advance aimed at benefiting its standing in the world and ability to provide its people with a better quality of life.

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