Iran and History’s Repetitions

Thanks for this substantive post, Michael Scherer.

It is also worth noting that the Iranian opposition leader today, Mir Hossein Moussavi, served as prime minister of Iran in the late 1980s, when the government carried out mass executions of thousands of political prisoners.
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Hah! Those “political prisoners” were terrorists. I believe many of them admitted as much when (firmly) asked. What was the government supposed to do with them? Release them on the streets of Tehran?

Interesting article.
“Those who [replace authoritarian administrations] tend to imitate the same tactics to different ends.”
“A[n authoritarian administration] depends for its [election] on the ignorance of the mob; that’s why all [authoritarians] take such pains to cultivate that {ignorance}. It requires generations to change such a state of affairs, to let some light in. Before this can happen, however, those who have [replaced an authoritarian President] often act, in spite of themselves, like his heirs, perpetuating the attitudes and thought patterns of the [administration] they themselves have [replaced]. This happens so involuntarily and subconsciously that they burst into righteous ire if anyone points it out to them.”
Translated it into more, ah, “appropriate” terms.

What worries me is that the 1979 revolution was as much against the US as against the Shah, who was our puppet anyway. We have a terrible rep in Iran, deservedly so, that goes back to the CIA ouster of Mossadegh. Unfortunately, two groups are speaking loudly right now on how the U.S. should jump in with both feet to this revolution: The neo-cons who were the ones supporting the “Shah’s” coup (and dozens like it in Central and South America over later decades), and young people who were born after 1979 and don’t know how much the average Iranian loathed us because of our history of screwing with Iran.

If Obama were to heed all these voices and come out in support of the protesters, or worse, Moussavi himself, the first thing that would happen is that the mullahs would announce that the U.S. is once again interfering in Iran’s sovereignty. The second thing that would happen is that even many of the protesters would side with them in a national orgy of pride and fear of U.S. interference.

I think Moussavi would loosen up the control the “moral police” have on society. His wife pretty much said she believes it’s a woman’s choice whether or not to wear the chador.

I know the freedoms we take for granted seem to come and go in Iran but I would also be willing to bet that each crackdown by the morality police spawns a backlash against cultural conservatism.

The majority of today’s Iranians weren’t even born in ’79. There’s quite a bit of reporting that indicates much of the country (particularly the cosmopolitan young interested in cultural “forbidden fruit”) would be more pro-American (and generally tolerant), but for the theocracy’s constant efforts to keep the U.S. as “the enemy” in order to maintain their hold on power. The best we can do is remain open to change in the Iranian populace and development of positive relations; the harder we try to influence Iran the more we’ll reignite the old resentments.

I think a more accurate way of saying “History repeats itself” is to note that “Human nature doesn’t change.” One of the amazing accomplishments of the American Constitution is that we have a system that not only allows for non-violent shifts in power but that allows sufficient protection for the expression of opposition and minority viewpoints that situations where people feel they have no choice but to resort to violence are exceedingly rare.
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But our system was designed very specifically with the knowlege that too much power in too few hands was inherently corrupting. It doesn’t matter who you are. Among other things that’s why the same secrecy that protects our National Security via our uintelligence agencies also invariably leads to horrendous abuses even when sorrounded by the best of intentions.

“It is also worth noting that the Iranian opposition leader today, Mir Hossein Moussavi, served as prime minister of Iran in the late 1980s, when the government carried out mass executions of thousands of political prisoners. To read about the program of political execution.”
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What I find ironic is all that is needed for our media to accept that these mass executions of politicial prisoners occurred in Iran as noted is an Amensty International report. But, Amensty International reports or Red Cross reports are not enough when it involves the U.S. being accused of torture and other human rights abuses. The question is always up for debate.

Great observation, gysgt213.
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A report’s validity must be measured by how well it serves the Kulturkampf.
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Maybe Iran was smart like us and redefined the definition of execution and political with a memo written by one their legal scholars and now there is no proof that stoning and hanging are even executions.

What Paul Dirks said.

Those who overthrow oppressive regimes tend to imitate the same tactics to different ends.
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An exception to that tendency was former Iranian PM Mussodegh, who lost power in a CIA-backed coup partly because of his commitment to maintaining democracy and an open civil society. This was then used by the current Iranian regime as a justification for their violent and oppressive rule: otherwise they would fall like Mussodegh.
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Those who seek to overthrow regimes in other countries tend to promote more oppression in those same countries.

Couldn’t the Guardian Council – after investigating the alleged irregularities – issue a run-off between the top two candidates? That was supposed to happen if none of the candidates had reached a majority of the vote in the first place.

The Guardian Council could try to safe it’s face by finding that no significant irregularities were found but that it is necessary to go to a run-off anyway to clear any doubts. It would give them a couple of weeks to monitor the situation and see how public opinion evolves, and then openly rally behind the supposed winner just in time before the election.